Sullivan County Real Estate Musings

End of the Year and BPO's

2012-01-03T17:21:00.000-05:00

So we are at the start of the New Year. 2012—the apocalypse year. Its funny to me that people believe that the Mayan civilization would be able to predict the end of the world, however the use of the wheel somehow eluded them. I guess we will see though.

I am no longer going to apologize for my lack of blogging. It just gets old, and the few that do read this I’m sure find it half-hearted and patronizing. My new year’s resolution is to blog as much as I can, However, I will post the sold info weekly. That is what I have received the most flack for. My running commentary seems much less compelling then the stats of what has sold here in Sullivan County.

Year end for me was a lot of running around. Showings have slowed, however I have become more and more busy (perhaps I should have just used “busier”?) doing BPO’s—broker price opinions.

As the real estate market continues to sell in the red, more banks are turning to agents and brokers for “opinions” on price before they decide on a foreclosure or short sale offer. It really is no secret that all they are trying to do is save a few bucks where they can. A licensed real estate appraiser has more often than not undergone more extensive schooling, and is held to a much higher standard under the law when determining value of real property. Therefore their fees are quite a bit higher.

So banks have turned to agents and brokers for an “opinion”. They make it very clear that it is not an appraisal. However they do require three sold and three active comparables. They require all tax information and want a detailed explanation as to why you have come up with your “opinion.” Some even require adjustments for square footage and acreage differences. For all intents and purposes it is an appraisal. But why pay an appraiser four hundred when you can pay an agent one?

Forget the fact that it is on a property that was thirty percent overpriced when it was appraised three years ago and sold via a “no doc.”, variable rate mortgage to a family that had no chance of making the payments. Now let’s try to save a few hundred as we take the 70K hit on the foreclosure. Penny rich and dollar poor.

At any rate I am happy to do them. They are fairly easy, and are a nice steady stream of income over the last few months. It has had me all over the county, and I was even offered a bribe at one particular property. It was actually pretty surprising. I felt like I was on a John Stossel’s “What Would You Do?"

Most of these BPO’s are on the other side of the county, and driving through there, it has reinforced to me how depressed parts of Sullivan County really are. I have taken a bunch of photos and plan on doing a blog post on them at some point when I get a chance. I was going to post a few this week, but pictures of run-down, closed hotels and businesses just didn’t seem like the right first post of the new year.

Happy New Year to All!

There were 25 properties sold in the last thrity days here in Sullivan County.

Click Here for Listings.

Sullivan County Vacant Land

2011-11-20T11:37:00.001-05:00

Once again me being busy has made my blog suffer. I just haven’t had that two hour block where I can sit down and write a witty, compelling yarn. Having a twenty-month old is a surprising amount of work, and I also seem knee deep in short sale paperwork, or answering emails.

Vacant land has been the theme of the last month. Up here in Sullivan County, the fall always seems to bring attention to larger land lots, because many of the avid hunters that come here have a dream of owning their own large piece, and being able to hunt it with impunity. There are quite a few pieces of state owned land that people can hunt on, but just like any other “public” area, this brings others into the equation. Everyone knows how annoying the Speedo wearing cell phone guy is at the public beach. Well put him in the woods with a gun. That is the hunter’s equivalent.

No, the dream of sitting in your own tree stand, on your own twenty-five to fifty acre piece, as dawn arrives and the sun breaks over the mountains is pretty powerful. And pretty universal for those who are into hunting.

I also think land ownership is a deep, ingrained desire. Owning you own space, and inviting those who you want, and denying the rest is a basic human (or perhaps even primate) trait. “I own all that I can see!” This kind of stuff has been around for centuries.

I have mentioned it before, but by far land here in Sullivan County is cheaper than I have ever seen it since I started selling real estate. I have compiled a list of my five favorites. These are all larger land lots, that I feel are really good bargains in today’s market.

50 acres 99K

I featured this piece last week. This is a foreclosure near Callicoon Center. It is fifty acres with a bunch of frontage on Nort Branch Creek, and a really nice pond. This is one of those pieces that would have had a 450K price tag on it in '07. This piece has just been surveyed, so that cost would not be needed upon purchase. Half wooded and half open fields.
Link

41 acres for 99K

This piece is located just outside of Jeffersonville, within ten minutes of Bethel Woods. I have shown this piece a few times to hunters, and the concern was houses in the immediate vicinity. This is a great, flat piece of land however, also with a little stream. It has been on the market for over two years, with the original price well over 200K. It is sub dividable.
Link

37 acres 225K

How much is a view worth? This 37 acre piece is priced higher than some of the others, but it has the best long range views from a piece for sale that I have seen in a long time. It is located just outside of Jeffersonville, by the desirable Beechwoods area. It has only been on the market for a few months, and they have already dropped the price some, showing motivation. Really nice open piece.
Link

70 acres for 279K

This is another open piece with long range views, almost but not quite as nice as the one in Jeff. It is lot more acreage however, just under seventy. This piece is located outside of White Sulpher Springs, as you go up the mountain towards Livingston Manor. It has been on the market a whopping 1500 days. Original price tag? 995K. It is now listed for 279K. Can you say sellers fatigue?
Link

130 acres 349K

There were a few I was flip-flopping on for the last one, but I picked this one for the sheer size of it. It is 130 acres down in Glen Spey off of Kalin-Weber. This is another piece that has been on the market forever. I believe the original tag on this one was around 800K. It is now 349K Or just under 3K an acre. Being less than two hours to NYC makes this one a pretty good deal.
Link

There were four properties reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS in the last seven days. Click Here

Short Sales in Sullivan County

2011-11-15T11:27:00.001-05:00

Two of my four deals currently going on are short sales, and two deals already completed this year have been short sales. It seems the inevitable changes that life brings continues, but now as more people are upside down on their mortgages than ever before, being able to pick up and move is not so easy.

So more and more people are going the short sale route. What was once the root canal of the real estate world is really not that painful anymore. The last one I did was forty-five days from offer to full acceptance. Soup to nuts as my Dad would say.

Some sellers may consider letting a property go into foreclosure rather than a short sale. With a foreclosure, especially with the backlog that still exists with big banks, a seller could stay in the property, essentially rent free, for well over year before being forced to evacuate. But that fact alone does not mean a foreclosure is better. With a short sale, yes the home will be listed, added to the MLS, people will tromp through, break appointments and invade your privacy. All the inconvenience of selling a home will be present. And what are you left with? A clean slate.

Basics of a Short Sale

Short sales happen when a lender agrees to accept less than the amount owed against the home because there is not enough equity to sell and pay all costs of sale.

How is the Seller’s Credit Affected?

According to Allan Franks, division manager at Citi Mortgage, sellers will take a bigger hit on their credit report by going through foreclosure or giving the lender a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. Franks says the points lost on a FICO score are as follows:

Foreclosure or Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure--Both of these solutions affect credit the same. Sellers will take a hit of 250 to 280 points. This means if a seller’s FICO score before foreclosure was 680, it could dip as low as 400.

Short Sale--The affect of a short sale on a seller’s credit report is much less damaging. The ding on credit will show up as a pre-foreclosure in redemption status, Franks says, which will result in a loss of 80 to 100 points. This means a short sale with a previous FICO of 680 will see it fall to 580 to 600.

Waiting Period Before Buying Another Home

Foreclosure or Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure--Franks says a seller who wants to buy another home after foreclosure will end up waiting about 36 months before a lender will offer any kind of interest rate that makes sense.

Short Sale--The good news for short sale sellers is the wait is much shorter before buying another home. “They can buy again in about 18 months at a good interest rate,” says Franks.

Short Sale / Foreclosure Deficiency Judgments

The bad news is a seller could be subject to a deficiency judgment for the difference between the loan amount and the amount paid. In New York, purchase money loans are not subject to deficiency judgments; however, hard money loans, equity loans and refinances are. Other states have laws regarding personal guarantees, which could also result in a deficiency judgment if the home owner is personally liable for loan repayment.

The lender has sole discretion whether to pursue a deficiency judgment in those instances when the judgment is permitted. To determine whether a pending foreclosure or short sale is subject to a deficiency judgment, talk to a real estate lawyer. At no point should you move forward with a short sale if a deficiency judgment is a possibility.

If you’re a seller trying to decide whether to let a home go through foreclosure versus attempting a short sale, salvaging your credit is the main advantage to doing a short sale. But seek legal and tax advice before making that decision.

I haven't done a "pick of the week" in a while but this piece in Callicoon Center is a steal. 50 acres with a stream and a pond for 99K Land Piece

There were nine single family homes listed as sold in the Sullivan County MLS in the last ten days. Click Here for Listings

Favorite Farmhouse Listings

2011-11-02T18:48:00.000-04:00

We had our first snow of the year, (I am sure pretty much everyone on the northeastern part of the country already knows this). Sullivan County didn’t get hit as hard as other areas though. I had about eight inches on my back porch, and in and around Monticello I heard just over a foot. No major power outages or anything, I even showed some hunting property on Sat., before the flakes began to fly.

I have remained fairly busy over the last week, I am getting a lot of hits on my website. Most of those hits have been about farmhouses. It seems that the trend (at least for me) is back to the country farmhouse getaway. The good news is, there are a few good—priced right properties out there. Properties that just a few years ago, would have had astronomical price tags on them. However, here at the end of 2011, getting a nice farmhouse for under 250K is doable. I have compiled a list of my favorites below.

32501—Priced very nicely at $179,000, this is an almost 3,000 sq. foot turn of the century farmhouse in Callicoon Center. A lot of the original elements remain, although there is some evidence of paneling and drop ceilings. The bones of the house are great, however. Although it is on 1.6 acres, it is located basically in the town of Callicoon Center, which may be a turn off for some, but an advantage for others. Click Here for Listing.

31170—This brick farmhouse on almost eight acres is one of my favorite active listings, and I am surprised it has not been snapped up yet. Built in 1949, it has four bedrooms, great original hardwood floors and cast iron radiators. The property is flat and open with apple trees and a great barn. This is a unique property at a good price (210,000), just outside of Narrowsburg on a quiet road. Click Here for Listing

32255—Built in 1890, this is a great little farmhouse in Obernburg with some really nice long range views. Like so many others, it was paneled and carpeted at some point, but the current owners have done a great job minimizing and re-doing. It is on a road that is somewhat busier than others, which may be a drawback for some. Click Here for Listing

32639—I guess not technically a farmhouse because a farmer never lived there, but this home, built in 2002 has all the bell and whistles of a farmhouse. The views from the porch are phenomenal, and it has a nice pond. Taxes are a bit steep at $7,500 Click Here for Listings

30587—Probably my favorite active farmhouse listing. This is a pre-Civil War farmhouse on 13 acres, with a huge barn and a carriage house. House has been done impeccably. You put this house in Fairfield County and the price tag is a million dollars. Here in Sullivan? $249,000. Click Here for listings. Click Here for Listings

There were fifteen properties reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS. Sullivan County Solds

Smallwood and Multiple Offers

2011-10-23T10:52:00.001-04:00

Smallwood Streamfront Cabin 129K

I had an inspection in Smallwood yesterday, but no scheduledshowings this weekend. That is in stark contrast to last week, where both dayswere chalk full, and on Saturday I met six different customers. The day wasfruitful however. I ended last weekend with four offers.

Three were on the same house, however. It is a short salethat I have listed, and have had listed for almost four months. When we firstput it on the market, it got a bit of mild interest, but then tailed off, anddespite the fact that I dropped the price a few times, and marketed the hell out of it, it sat without a wholelot of activity.

Well last week, I dropped it another ten thousand, and allof the sudden I started getting calls on it. I had to squeeze in four differentshowings on Sat. morning, and of course—feast or famine—three of the fourshowings resulted in offers.

This is the first time I have been in a multiple offersituation like this. And believe me I am not complaining. I think most brokerswould love to be in this predicament, but unfortunately I liked all threecouples, and all three really liked the property. So we asked for everyone’shighest and best by Tuesday—and on Wednesday I was in the odd position ofcalling two of them with bad news. I felt like Simon Cowell sitting at the deskafter the contestants make the long elevator ride. It was a weird feeling andno fun at all.

But the couple that did “win” are very happy. This is a specialproperty, and hopefully the bank will agree to the short sale.

The other offer I received was from a couple that has beenlooking for awhile in Smallwood. I had shown a few houses in Smallwood prior tothis, but with these buyers we looked at between 10-15 homes. I was pleasantly surprisedat Smallwood, and I plan on recommending this area more to people who arelooking for affordable second home getaways.

Smallwood is a hamlet in Bethel,tucked in between White Lake and Swinging Bridge. It was originallysettled in the 1800’s by eastern European immigrants, but it was not until A.NSmallwood came along in 1928 that it began to change into what it is today—A ruralcountry escape, small, modest Adirondack stylecabins hidden away under giant pine trees. Click Here for a History of Smallwood. As the years have gone on, more substantial—year round homes have beenbuilt. However Smallwood still has that feel of a working class summer retreat.If you are looking for a second home on a budget, you should definitely considerSmallwood. Although the pictures do not do it justice, Click Here for Smallwood Streamfront

There were 19 properties reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS in the last ten days. Click Here for Solds.

Fall in Sullivan County

2011-10-11T11:38:00.000-04:00

Sonoma Falls in Livingston Manor

Peak fall foliage is just around the corner. This year will probably not be as spectacular as some, because we have had all the rain this year, which has knocked off a lot of the leaves before they could reach full potential. However over the next seven to ten days, most of Sullivan County will be in prime color. The cold nights mixed with the warm days are making the middle of our autumn season quite enjoyable. If anyone is thinking about coming up this weekend for a sightseeing trip, I would think that you will not be disappointed.

There are quite a few activities and events going on throughout the fall. It really is not a matter of what you should do while here, but what you should skip, because it is not possible to cram it all into one weekend.

Sonoma Falls in Livingston Manor is a great place to stop by if you are in the area. They have an old fashioned cider press set up in a barn, a country store that sells fresh produce and fruits, hayrides and a pumpkin patch for the kids, and some pretty spectacular water falls, with hiking trails—definitely a good spot to spend that afternoon. Cider Mill.

Bethel Woods has its rustic craft show this weekend. This expanded specialty craft event will showcase wood carvings, handmade furniture, pottery, accessories and accents for the home. They also have large tents filled with local fruits and produce. Bethel Woods

Segway Tours in Woodridge has fall foliage tours throughout Oct. Fall Foliage Tours

All farmers markets are in full swing, and will continue throughout Oct. as well. Farmers Markets.

Calkins Creamery will be having an in-store tasting and demonstration this weekend Calkins Creamery is a small, farmstead cheese operation on Highland Farm in Wayne County, Pennsylvania. Emily Montgomery, the cheesemaker, produces an array of raw milk aged cheeses as well as fresh, pasteurized cheeses. Emily's father and brother, Bill & Zack, operate the 6th generation family farm. Cheese are aged at the creamery and underground in the caves at neighboring Calkins Creek Vineyard. Creamery Link

There will also be two Halloween parades. One in Callicoon on Oct. 29th at 1PM, and one on the 30th in Jeffersonville at 6PM. Another great activity for the kids.

There were eight single family homes reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS in the last 14 days. Click Here for Listings

Acceptance

2011-09-25T11:29:00.000-04:00

It seems to me sellers are finally coming to terms with the market that we are in. It took some time—almost two years. However more and more we are seeing new houses come on the market that are “priced right” or easily 25 to 30% lower than they would have been a few years ago. And you are also seeing some of the more stubborn listings that have been languishing, now with major price reductions and a few getting deals on them.

Back in 2009 I had a deal on a 1940’s Dutch colonial on 23 acres. We got an accepted offer, however the inspection uncovered things that spooked the buyers. They asked for a 10K allowance. The sellers said go pound salt. Twenty-six months later, it has finally gone into pending on the MLS. They had dropped the price 30K less than they would have walked with had they agreed to the inspection allowance. It will be interesting to see what the final price is.

There is another modular ranch that I had an offer on last summer. Seller responded via the listing agent, that they were “insulted” by the offer. It just sold for 10K less than the initial insulting offer.

I suppose it is the final step in the five stages of grief—acceptance. We had the denial, the anger and the bargaining. Now we have a collective national sigh.

But have you noticed the number of articles being written about when housing prices will start to recover and "real' appreciation will start to kick in? It seems everywhere I turn someone is trying to "TALK" the housing market up. Have you been reading the same things?

Why... to get to those highs would mean that the economy would have to produce over 8 million new jobs (just to reclaim all those who lost their jobs) and then it would have to grow so that incomes increase to the point where higher priced homes could be afforded.

Remember, one of the contributing factors to the downturn was that home prices had outstripped the ability of buyers to afford them. That had become painfully obvious the last year of the bubble, where buyers simply could not afford the asking prices of even the most modest homes here in Sullivan County. And at last when every “creative finance” option had been exhausted—the house of cards collapsed. Just like I doubt we will see the Nasdaq at 5K again, the three bedroom ranch on one acre in Sullivan County will not be worth 225K again anytime soon.

There were twelve single family homes listed as sold on the Sullivan County MLS. Click Here

Deed Restrictions

2011-09-18T12:24:00.000-04:00

We don’t have very many subdivisions with extensive deed restrictions here in Sullivan County, and the ones we do have generally are pretty lackadaisical. Mostly you see no trailers or mobile homes, or no further subdivision. That is pretty much the extent of it.

However apparently in Spring Texas, they take their deed restrictions very seriously. Now I get it—the role of the deed restrictions are to protect the property values of the homes in the subdivision. The deed restrictions spell out what you can and can not do to or with your home, often including what color you can paint your house, or what type of mailbox you can install—Conformity equals value I suppose.

The Sardo family who live in just such a subdivision are learning all about deed restrictions and lawsuits. The Sardo family own a pot-bellied pig and according to the Thicket at Cypresswood’s deed restrictions no animals, livestock, poultry, reptiles, or insects of any kind shall be raised, bred or kept on any lot in the subdivision. The Board of the Home Owners Association (HOA) for the Thicket at Cypresswood has informed the Sardo family they are in violation of deed restrictions and Wilbur, the pot-bellied pig, must find a new home. The Sardo family says Wilbur is a pet and not livestock and thus they are suing their HOA to keep their pig.

Who will win? Who knows. But there will be a lot of money spent on lawsuits over a pig. A much loved pig, I might add. There has probably never been any pig with more Facebook friends than Wilbur. At last count and still growing Wilbur had over 5,000 Facebook friends.

After hearing this story I jumped on the computer to research other odd deed restrictions. Apparently as long as the restrictive covenants do not break any local or federal laws, you can pretty much put in what ever you want. There is a house in Tennessee that has a giant statue of a cat in the front yard. Subsequent owners have been unable to remove it because it is in the deed that it must remain. Other strange restrictions include a stripper pole in a Las Vegas home, and a home in Colorado that must remain a deep purple.

On a more sobering note (although obviously no longer enforced as law now prohibits) there are deeds here in Sullivan County that restrict resale to “non-Caucasians and Jews.”

There were 11 single family homes sold in Sullivan County in the last seven days according to the Sullivan County MLS Click Here for Listings

Echoes

2011-09-08T22:06:00.000-04:00

I skipped a blog post last week—unfortunately. I have been very busy, and I just couldn’t seem to find the time. I doubt there was anyone out there waiting with baited breath, but if so I apologize. The sold info below will include both weeks.

I have been running all over Sullivan County, showing homes. It seems there is a late summer rush. People want to be in something by the holidays. Most of what I have been showing is older, turn of the century homes; with a few dating all the way back to civil war era. I love these kind of homes, they all have character, history, and I what I call “echoes.”

A customer of mine coined that phrase a few years ago when were out looking at older farmhouses, and I have stolen it, because I think it describes that feeling or “vibe” you get from these type of older homes. It is that indescribable feeling when you walk through the front door, and get a sense of all that has transpired in that space over many decades. For me it is not necessarily a hair-on-the-back-of-your-neck feeling, (although I have had a few of those) it is more of a wistful nostalgia. An empty dusty dining room evokes images of happy holiday gatherings around a carved turkey, or the faded wallpaper in a child’s bedroom the only clue to who may have grown up there. A pile of discarded books or newspapers makes you wonder who had leafed through them. Echoes from the past—it is a strange, cool feeling and only certain houses have it.

I think bigger, formerly busier spots give me this feeling more than others. The boarding house over the wooden bridge in North Branch had major echoes. (I have blogged about that house before, and it remains one of my favorites) More recently it happened with the former Griffin House in Jeffersonville—127 Maple Ave. This house was built in 1895, and was owned by the same family for 105 years. It was then a bed and breakfast for twenty years, before apparently through a series of misfortunes it was foreclosed on. Link to Griffin House site. It now sits vacant, a grand building waiting for the next chapter of its history. Link to listing. This really is a special property. The wood work is something I have never seen before, and the grounds could be beautiful once again. But more importantly, every room has echoes, and standing in the empty foyer by the fireplace, I don’t think it has ever been stronger. There is a lot of history in that old building, lots of memories--the narrative of a family unknown to me.

They may be able to get the wide plank floors or the field stone foundation exterior done right, but echoes are something a "new old house" will never be able to duplicate.

There were 30 homes reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS in the last 14 days. Click here for sold listings.

Irene in Pictures

2011-08-29T12:18:00.000-04:00

All my weekend appointments canceled in anticipation of the storm, so the last few days have not revolved around real estate. I couldn't take the network news coverage much past Sat. morning. The buildup was ridiculous. I know it was a category 1 hurricane, and nothing like this has hit the east cost in thirty years, but sixteen mind numbing hours of batten-down-the-hatches coverage? Bloomburg and Christie got plenty of face time. Every time I put on the t.v. it was one or the other.

Well our power went out early Sunday morning, but the real crux of the storm did not hit my section of Sullivan County until probably between 2 and 5 PM. It was blustery and rainy before that, but the winds really kicked into high gear around 2, and blew pretty steady for the next few hours.

By that time I had some major cabin fever, so I headed out to see what damage Irene had done. Nothing really major. We had a bunch of trees down, and the Delaware and all the streams were pretty flooded. We got our power back here in Callicoon pretty quickly, but as I write this Monday morning, many in our areas are still out.

Delaware River above Hankins

Looking Downstream

Tree down on Obernburg Hill

Volunteer fireman cleaning up CR 121 above Hankins

On the mountain on CR 121. You can't really tell by the picture, but the clouds were moving, and the wind was really blowing. Christie would have told me to get the hell off the mountain.

Another

Callicoon Creek

Jeffersonville Creek

Trees and debris in Callicoon

Hankins Creek

Another tree on a wire in Milses above McGurrins. For a moment I thought about trying to make it, but that is not how I want end the legacy.

Somebody had already cleared a way through. Fremont Township

Another of the Delaware. It crested at 2AM Monday. No big issues

There were eight properties listed as sold in the Sullivan County MLS in the last seven days. Click Here for Report

My pick of the week is one of my listings. It is an old farmhouse on Menderis Road in Swan Lake on five acres. This really is a special spot. It is very secluded, and it has an old post and beam barn, huge blueberry bushes and apple trees and grapevines. It is a short sale, and we currently have it listed at 169K. It is a great price, but I have only had one showing on it since I listed it last month. Someone is going to come along and fall in love with this property. Swan Lake Farmhouse

Trains

2011-08-22T16:07:00.000-04:00

Once again my blog post is later than I would have liked, but the fact of the matter is, I have had a very busy week. I got offers on both of my lakefront listings this week, after a summer selling season of little action. Both weekend days were full of appointments, as well as some showings during the week. It is like people realized it is Aug. and they better get in gear.

Both of my showings this weekend were Manhattanites, mid thirties, looking for a second home. What was different about both couples is they were not necessarily looking for privacy. They were looking for convenience. It was a little surprising, because I have gotten used to seclusion being sort of the mantra for the urban searchers. For many they want to be tucked away among the trees, out of sight from Fri. until Sunday.

Well it seems as I encounter more of these thirty-something shoppers, their priorities are different. First of all many do not own cars. Now if you are to buy in Sullivan County, you have to own a car. (Or rent one every weekend.) So I have had a few buyers who are looking for a house and car at the same time. However the issue is, many want to entertain in their upstate home, and most of their friends don’t have cars. So rather than having a house out in the woods, where house guests will be essentially trapped for the duration, dependant on the hosts to go anywhere, they are looking for closer, even in-town homes, where a guest can get up earlier than everyone else if they choose, and stroll into town for a bagel and coffee.

Also both buyers I took out this weekend are considering the Ulster/Greene county areas. There are a lot of reasons why they like Sullivan County better (besides price--we are on average 25% cheaper) one made the comment that our area has a “country feeling” that those more populous areas have lost. However what those areas do have is a train. This is a huge draw for thirty-something buyers. Guests can hop a train to Rhinbeck, or Kingston, and be picked up at the train station. Even a day trip visit is possible with a 90 minute scenic Hudson Valley train ride.

I think this is another example of how our county is lagging behind. Yes we are dependant on tourism, and we have made strides in making our county more attractive to visitors. However there is a train route in place, and twice a day a locomotive carrying what looks like garbage and roofing supplies, chugs through Callicoon. I know there had been big plans a few years back (Train article) to bring the trains back through. However like so many others, they fizzled with little fanfare.

I have done very little research on the history of the train line that ran up the Delaware in the last century. I do know it was the lifeblood, and many of the towns around us would never have existed if it weren't for the train. Callicoon was originally Callicoon Depot, and the entire town sprung up around the station. This link gives a little more info on the history of the train lines.

What would it take to bring a passenger train to Sullivan County? I don’t think it will happen without some sort of government subsidy. Conrail, the owner of the railway that snakes its way up the Delaware from Port Jervis to Hancock, makes its revenue from freight. Commuter or passenger revenue can not compete. A private venture like the one proposed by Mr. Wilson I believe is just to grand of an undertaking for the private sector. No, we need a local elected official to go on a mission. Someone with a little influence who can persuade those that frown on gas drilling and gambling, that perhaps a Sullivan County renaissance is as simple as a once a day commuter train from NYC.

There were eight listings reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS. Click Here for Sold listings

My house of the week is one of the in-town houses that I showedd this weekend. It is pretty big four bedroom completely redone farmhouse on Mill Street, right by the brook in Jeffersonville. It has two cool barns on the property, and it is set underneath a bunch of giant pine trees. The grounds are private despite being in-town, and you hear the constant sound of the brook anytime you are outside. The interior has been done with great attention to detail. It really needs to be seen to be appreciated. The pictures do not do it justice.Recently they have dropped th price to 249K, which I think is a great price. Jeffersonville House

Seller Frustration

2011-08-14T11:51:00.000-04:00

So everyone knows how crappy the real estate market is in this country. The media loves doom and gloom, and there is at least one news piece daily that reminds me of this. And despite recent glimmers of hope, it remains in the doldrums, and most experts agree that it will stay that way for some time. It has been discussed ad nauseam, tight banks, nervous buyers, high taxes and gas prices, whatever is the driving force that is keeping things tight, it would appear that it will remain this way for some time. I believe like most things in life, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and the more it is discussed and dissected and moaned about, the more it will stay the same.

Since I represent both buyers and sellers, I am seeing it from both sides. Right now I have a handful of listings that are not selling, and despite my best efforts, are continuing to languish. Now this is not an aberration. Less than one in four homes listed on the Sullivan County MLS will sell. That is the cold hard facts of this market. If you list your home today, there is an 80% chance it won’t sell in the next calendar year. Now these stats include the unmotivated, test-the-waters sellers, which although much less than at the peak of the market, still litter our MLS, but it is a sobering fact to bring up during a listing presentation.

So what does this mean to sellers? Your home must not just be a good deal, it has to be head and shoulders above the others. It must have a wow factor that sets it aside from the twenty other homes that a prospective buyer can pick to look at. And even then, this does not guarantee a sale. Every week I call my sellers, and we have discussions of what we can do differently. How can we make this house stand out from the others? For many we are at or close to the bottom for price, a few we have dropped into the short sale category, and all feel frustrated. Their lives are on hold as we search for a buyer. I feel for them, and it is often frustrating to see little to no response on some of these homes that a few years ago would have been snatched up quickly.

At any rate, there is still buying and selling going on. People are still moving, switching jobs, needing more room for growing families, and buying second home getaways. It is the process of how they are doing that which has changed. And who can blame buyers? The landscape is completley different than a few years ago. Buyers can wait, and nibble, and choose carefully. There is very little competition, and multiple offers are a thing of the past. Yes it is a buyers market, no doubt about it.

There were seven single family homes reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS for this week. Click Here

My pick of the week is along the same vein as homes that don't sell. It is an almost 2,000 square foot redone ranch in Narrowsburg. This is a nice home, and although it is on a small lot, it has appeal to both a second and primary home buyer. It just recently expired off the MLS after a year. Original price was $199,000 and they dropped it to $179,000. This is just another example of how just being a good home, priced competitively, isn't necessarily enough to get your home sold. Click Here

MLS Whoops!

2011-08-06T11:27:00.000-04:00

I am a member of two Multiple Listing Services and every morning over coffee I look through all the new listings that have come on the market. I keep tabs on the good ones, and perhaps send a few to various casual buyers that I have, that will buy the right house at the right price.

Most of the listings are presented very professionally. The pictures are all pretty tastefully taken. You can see some time and effort was put into removing clutter and positioning the shot for the best possible view. The description as well is mostly well written, and hits the high points of the house pretty concisely and with little error.

However with all things in life, you get the occasional agent who had a bad day, or just overlooked something. Most are just a misspelled word or two, or a wrong decimal point, but every once in a while you get a gem. I have seen some good ones on our local Multiple Listing Service, but nothing like the list I compiled from various real estate message boards and blogs. Some I think are pretty hilarious.

“Info on Homostead Act” (They never covered this form in my continuing ed.)

All wall damage repaired, butt cracks on surface.” (I hate those)

“Light filled home with strategically located mirrors.” (Boom chicka)

“Bathroom has His and His sinks.” (Understandable given the new Act stated above)

“Sit and enjoy the kitchen fire while Mom cooks.” (Mom attended the Michael Jackson School of Flash Cooking.)

“Yard with kennel and sandbox for the kiddies.” (Who needs a babysitter?)

“New addition with bedroom with French doors and pig roaster.” (Of course pork in the master bedroom)

“Kitchen with Spanish influences and un-permitted large maids quartered.” (Large maids with no permits?)

“Lovely home with new baths with EZ freeway Access.” (When you have to go and then go)

“Seller wants fast sale. Doesn’t like the area.” (But don’t worry you’ll love it.)

"There is also a sunny deck on the 2nd floor that gets a morning to afternoon delight." (I guess technically there is nothing wrong with this, but the twelve year old part of my brain gets a chuckle out of it.)

"Glass Doors Leading To Rear Deck Where You Can Sunbathe Naked and Commune with Nature." (Again I guess nothing wrong, but really?)

Some of my other favorites include a home that has been “remolded”, “motorvated sellers” and a “wreck room”.

And then we have these train wrecks below:

“Back to the market the client not get approval from Lender. For washer and dryer included…elememtary at 2 blocks, 2 duplex, 4 units .proyect will be ready on 4 months . call for details listing agent". (Someone needs to go back to "elememtary" school.)

"Not a short stale, this is a banked own home. IS AS Where As. Please bring all offers and write them on contracts." (What?)

And a picture tells a thousand words:

There were 15 single family home sales reported in the Sullivan MLS. Click Here for Listings

I do not have a pick of the week this week. Again nothing really jumped out at me. We are leaving tomorrow for Lake George for a few days. We're taking little Zach on his first vacation.

Pictures of Sullivan County

2011-07-30T11:46:00.000-04:00

Over the five years of selling real estate here in Sullivan, I have taken a bunch of photos. For whatever reason, I have saved all of them. Yesterday while transferring some old files, I came across a bunch of them, and in my--will do anything to waste time besides work--mode that I so easily seem to slip into, I wasted a half hour looking through them. Well to justify that half hour, I am going to use them as this weeks blog post. Actually some I think are pretty cool, and together they give a good snapshot of what our county has to offer.

This car is up above Roscoe on Old Route 17, along the Beaverkill. I always get a chuckle when I drive by it.

I took this from the Callicoon bridge just before the start of the annual Callicoon Canoe Regatta. The regatta was a tradition when I was growing up here, and I'm glad it is back.

My favorite driving range up in Fremont. Owned by a retired farmer, you hit the balls out into a hay field.

An old wooden bridge over North Branch Creek that leads to..

This boarding house on 50 acres. This was one of my all time favorite properties. I was bummed when I wasn't the one that sold it. The property also has a large old barn on it that was featured on History Channel's American Pickers. Very cool spot.

I took this while waiting for a client who owns 100 acres outside of Jeffersonville. This was beginning of Nov. last year when we got all the early snow. I didn't take the listing, but it is a nice piece of property. Land is a tough sell right now if you want top dollar.

I took this last spring while waiting for another client in Neversink. I ended up selling this property to him. Perhaps the fawn was my good luck charm.

View from the PA side of Kellams Bridge up above Hankins. My favorite stretch of the Delaware is from Long Eddy to Hankins. It takes about three hours in a tube, or an hour and a half in a canoe, and it has a great mix of rapids, and deep spots to hang out and swim.

I took this in Narrowsburg two years ago when a bald eagle decided to spend the summer in this big pine. I couldn't tell if there was a nest or not, but for that whole summer he just hung out in that tree.

View of Callicoon from another great house that I didn't sell.

We had 13 houses reported sold in the Sullivan County MLS. Click Here for listings

My pick of the week is a farmhouse in Smallwood listed for $299,000. It is a pre-civil war farmstead, with a huge (70 foot long) post and beam barn, and a separate carriage house, on 14 acres. For someone searching for an authentic old farmhouse, that has that "feel" this is Shangri-La. Yes it was built in 1850, so some of the floors slant, and the basement probably gets wet, and there is probably very little insulation in the walls, and all the other drawbacks that come with owing an old home, but it has that "feel" that is impossible to describe or duplicate. Homes like this one are rare, and for under 300K, ever rarer. Smallwood Farmhouse

Zillow’s IPO and other Real Estate Sites

2011-07-22T11:29:00.000-04:00

So Zillow.com’s initial public offering hit the Nasdaq on Wednesday (Z). The price was set at $20 a share and it closed at $39. A 79% percent jump.

I’m sure that anyone who has done any “real estate Googling” has come across Zillow. They are a company based in Seattle, founded in ’05 by some pretty bright minds that previously had a hand in Microsoft and Expedia. Basically they are a database that includes 100 million homes across the United States. And although current homes on the market are a big part of their search results, in addition they give value estimates of homes, by offering several features including value changes of each home in a given time frame (Zesitmates), aerial views of homes, and prices of comparable homes in the area. Where they can access appropriate public data, it also provides basic information on a given home, such as square footage and the number of bedrooms and bathrooms. Users can also get current estimates of homes if there was a significant change made, such as a recently remodeled kitchen.

They are currently in third place for the highest ranking real estate sites behind Yahoo and Realtor.com, and despite the fact that they have never shown a dime of profit, (in fact last year they lost 6.8 million) they seem poised to seize the online real estate market. There are others, like Trulia and Realbird, but the big players seem to be these three.

Doubters are calling this another example of the beginning of the Dot.Com Bubble 2.0, and in some ways I agree with them. What exactly is Zillow selling? Well information I suppose, and that is what brings me to my point, and why I have an issue with websites like Zillow.

Real estate listings are a sought after commodity for agents and brokers. It is the product that drives each brokerage. Besides the obvious that you need a listing so you can sell it and make a commission, listings are used to show other potential sellers how successful a company is, they are used to lure in buyers, and a yard sign with your name on it is free advertising screaming to the neighborhood “Look at me. I am a real estate agent.” Listings are the life blood of any successful real estate agency.

Well once you get a listing, the pressure is on to find a buyer. Sellers want to know that you are working hard on their behalf and shouting from the rooftops, so agents scramble around to advertise. However they do not want to spend a lot of money. That is where these piranha sites come in. They very generously offer to advertise your listings for free. The posting process is smooth and easy. Often times they will partner with your local MLS and it can be done automatically. It’s a chummy win-win situation.

Well as these sites have evolved, they have begun to get greedy. They have come up with ways to attempt to get money from real estate agents as well as advertisers. They now offer different programs where you can enhance a listing, or pay to have it bumped to the top of the search results or better yet sponsor neighborhoods or zip codes, all for a monthly fee. Suddenly another agent’s contact info is splashed around on your listing. And all the while they have SEO web people feverishly working to assure top Google placement, effectively beating out local agent’s websites that have freely given them the listings in the first place.

The National Association of Realtors has also efficiently set up Realtor.com so that it holds agents hostage unless they buy an annual enhancement package at an absurd fee. Listings are stripped of all but one photo, and all descriptions are also removed, unless the fee is paid. On top of that, they offer neighborhood sponsorships, and banner ads. The total can be in the thousands. To me this is the biggest travesty. NAR is supposed to be an association that agents join freely to help them do business better and more efficiently. Instead they have basically become a monopolizing bully. It is akin to the protection fee you pay a crew from Canarsie. I suppose you could operate with out it, but without the MLS, few agencies could survive.

I don’t begrudge the entrepreneurial. On the same hand I don’t like to see people taken advantage of, and I think unknowingly we agents and brokers are. And I don’t think most agents realize that we are in a position of power. We have the product, and we spend a lot of time and effort obtaining that product. To freely give to these companies who then turn around and charge us, and compete with us in search results makes no sense to me. If all agents and brokers got together and decided not to give away our listings, the top five real estate websites would immediately fold.

But for now Zillow is worth 950 million, without making one cold call or knocking on one door.

There were five sales reported in the Sullivan MLS this week. Click Here for listings.

My pick of the week is one of the sold listings. MLS 32165. I think this sale is an example of our market stabilizing and perhaps even picking up a bit. It is a nice early 20th century farmhouse with a bit of land, and some seclusion. This house would appeal to a lot of second home searchers. What caught my eye was the days on market, and the original list price. (165K and 103 DOM) A few years ago, a house like this would have been priced at 200 plus K, and would have sat at least a year, with begrudging intermittent price drops. This one was a quick, efficient--list it and sell it. I think this is a good sign.

2% Tax Cap

2011-07-16T10:34:00.000-04:00

"Statement from New York State Association of REALTORS CEO Duncan R. MacKenzie

Albany – June 25, 2011 – Today, a great victory has been won for New York State’s long suffering property taxpayers. Governor Cuomo, Majority Leader Skelos, Speaker Silver and the lawmakers who voted for the cap deserve kudos for standing up to the tax-and-spend forces that made this common-sense approach a political football. Tough times require tough decisions and Albany has delivered. This is also a significant win for the REALTOR organization. Residential property owners have no organized voice in Albany, so the 51,000 members of the New York State Association of REALTORS took up the cause and used every resource at its disposal to make the cap a reality.

New York’s REALTORS also praise lawmakers for including mandate relief opportunities as part of the cap effort. We have consistently said that the ultimate success of the tax cap will be tied to finding ways to help municipalities and school districts achieve savings from programs that have been passed down to them from Albany."

So what does this mean for Sullivan County? Nothing for the near future. Were this law passed in boom times, I suppose we would be able to see some relief a bit quicker, however with property values dropping, and tax levys here in Sullivan in some areas at a staggering 10% of market value, It could be years before we see any sort of change.

Massachusetts passed a similar law in 1980, making the property tax cap there 2.5%. Since then, their taxes have gone up 23% compared with 56% in New York. No question this is a step in the right direction, and over the next ten years (if this law stays in place) our local municipalities will have to makes some major changes in how they spend the tax dollars. I am all for it. We have haphazard school districts, filled with 100+ K superintendents, principles and administrators. We have separate tiny hamlets, each with their own highway superintendents, building inspectors, assessors and dog wardens. Excess spending is blatant and is hurting our county.

There were ten sold listings in the Sullivan County MLS this week. Click Here

I don't have a pick of the week property this week. Nothing has jumped out at me. I have been super busy. It is mid-summer, and people are looking to buy.

100 to 125K Range

2011-07-08T23:03:00.000-04:00

I put together two deals at the end of June. Both are primary home buyers and both emails were almost identical. They were looking for something in the 100K to 125K range, three bedrooms, and little bit of a yard, and they weren’t too picky about anything else.

An email like that three years ago, and I probably would have responded with a “Sorry can’t help you.” At the height of the craziness, even the 150K range was tough. But now things have changed. Once I started pulling up listings and sending them out, I was pleasantly surprised at the inventory.

Now in this range, you do have to expect some compromises. Both of these buyers wanted to see a lot of houses and between the two I showed around twenty-five scattered all over the county. It was nice getting acquainted with homes in this range again and I feel I have a pretty good grasp of what this range has to offer.

And if I had to sum it up in one word, it would be paneling. I am fairly certain that every house I showed (including the two that I have bids on) had some evidence of paneling, and some, the entire interior was paneled, from kitchen to bath to bedroom, walls and ceiling—A faux wood grain with fake knots and varying sized dark strips. And it all looks exactly the same. It is like everyone from 1975 to 1985 bought the same paneling from the same store.

I have seen people paint paneling which seems to work pretty well. Also unless it has been applied over plaster or sheet rock and attached with glue, it is pretty easy to remove and replace. Both of my buyers were pretty blasé about the interior. They understood that at this price range things are not going to be perfect, and really wood paneling is a small, easily changeable compromise.

But other than the paneling epidemic, I was really surprised at how much house you can buy in this range. All had three bedrooms, many had more than one bathroom, (a few had three) and I would say thirteen hundred square feet was the median. Some had garages, and outbuildings, and the taxes ranged from $4,000 in Liberty, to less than $2,000 in Fremont. It is nice to see that Sullivan County is affordable again. That is where we need to be to compete with our more glamorous counties to the south and east.

There were 14 sales reported in the last week in the Sullivan County MLS Click Here

My pick of the week is one of the houses I showed in the 125K range. It is in Liberty Township, so the taxes are a bit high at $4,000. The outside of the house is a non descript board and baton sided looking ranch, but it is on a really nice lot, with great open views. And once you get inside, you forget all about the rough exterior. I would love to know the history of this house, because it is reminiscent of the Sears "Modern Home Starlight" series from the '20's and '30's (which is when this house was built). It has ten foot ceilings, a big kitchen, original doors, trim and windows. The downside is there is only one bathroom and it is tiny, but for a little second home getaway, it is hard to find something in this price range with this much character. Liberty Home

The 4th in Sullivan County

2011-07-01T10:37:00.000-04:00

Summer is in full swing here in Sullivan County. The streets and sidewalks are busy with tourists and weekenders. The Delaware is dotted with kayaks, rafts and canoes. Life is preoccupied by gardens, barbeques and ice tea on the back deck.

There is a ton of stuff to do here in the month of July. The biggest dilemma is picking which event to attend. Below is what I consider the highlights for the 4th weekend.

Narrowsburg’s 4th of July celebration. Running from the 2nd to the 4th, this three day festival includes an old fashioned fair with carnival games and inflatables, a spectacular fireworks display at dusk on Sunday, and at 3pm on Monday a traditional parade, followed by a take-out chicken barbecue. The fireworks display is really the best in the area. They are shot out over the water on the Delaware.

Roscoe also has a 4th of July parade on Sat. the 2nd. Thunder 102 will be broadcasting live from the route, and there will be numerous vendors and things for the kids.

The New York Philharmonic is playing Bethel Woods on Sunday the 3rd. Lawn tickets are still available.

Towns that have farmers markets this weekend are, Callicoon, Barryville, Jeffersonville, Liberty, and Roscoe. All Independence Day barbeques need a salad, and if your garden is a little short on ingredients, you can mix in a local farmers, without anyone being the wiser.

On Mon. the 4th, Liberty has an all day festival that starts with a classic car, motorcycle and tractor show at 11:00 am – Walter Moylan, the keyboard wizard at high noon followed by Walter Keller, Liberty's poet laureate at 12:05 pm (short set for Moylan). The parade starts at 12:30, followed by a hot dog eating contest sponsored by Garry’s Great American at 1:15pm. And to cap off the day, the Liberty Festival Talent Show with MC Jackie Horner – The Inspiration behind “Dirty Dancing” is at 4PM.

So if you are planning to spend this weekend here in the Sullivan County Catskills, there is more than enough to keep you busy.

There were eight properties listed as sold on the Sullivan County MLS. Sullivan County Solds

My pick of the week is a home that just went into contract in Lumberland NY, on Hollow Road. This house has been in the market for well over three years. It is an interesting custom contemporary, on over seven acres, adjoining Black Forest on the back. It is a big sprawling home-- 3600 sq feet, five bedrooms four baths, tennis courts, a swimming pool, totally secluded with a little bridge over a brook to get to it. It does have its drawbacks. It has evidence of 1987 splashed around, and the driveway when I showed it a few times had a tendency to get washed out easily Original list price was in the 700K range. Well it has finally gotten a bite, and gone into contract. It will be interesting to see what the agreed upon price was. But this is another house that if you told them three years ago that it would go in the 350K range, you wold have been told you were crazy. Lumberland Home

My Take on Gas Drilling

2011-06-24T20:31:00.000-04:00

In conjunction with the “strategic release” of some of our oil reserves this week, as well as the propaganda filled viral YouTube video (I Love My NY Water) that is being bandied about Facebook. I have decided to weigh in for a minute or two on the gas drilling debate that has been raging here in Sullivan County for over three years. (Actually for over two decades on and off.)

I am fairly certain that anyone reading this is pretty familiar with the debate. But for those who aren’t, I will give you the cliff notes. About two miles below us, there is a bunch (although how much is debated) of natural gas among the Marcellus Shale.

Well halfway through the 2000’s, gas companies like Chesapeake, and Exco Petroleum began quietly approaching landowners of large chunks here in Sulllivan County, and offering them leases, which would give these companies the right to drill down to retrieve the fossil fuel, via a process called fracking. Fracking is a procedure where they force pressurized water and other ingredients down the well, forcing open fissures which will release the gas. Thanks to our fearless leader at that point (George Walker) the environmental laws were relaxed enough so these companies expected to come in and set up shop with little trouble.

Well I think they under estimated the land owners here a little bit. The residents formed a coalition, and held out for better terms on the leases. Some of the higher numbers I have heard are $3,000 an acre. However, this coalition brought attention, and with that attention people began to do some research, and some of the things that they found were troubling. Gas drilling has potential negative side effects on the environment. The gas companies are somewhat vague as to the “other ingredients” in the fracking process, and stories began to emerge from other areas. Suddenly Sullivan County was slated to be the next Chernobyl.

There was a series of town hall type meeting put on by the gas companies, which attempted to assuage all fears, but over the last few years there is a growing movement of anti-drillers, and they have pretty successfully halted the process while environmental impact studies are performed.

Let me first say that I get why the anti-drillers are doing what they are doing. No-one wants to see Sullivan County turned into a wasteland dotted with discarded pools of fracking fluid. These gas companies cannot be allowed to operate with impunity. There needs to be accountability.

However what I don’t get is the across the board attitude that drilling is evil, and must be stopped at all costs. This growing number of anti-drillers, led by their celebrity Lorax Mark Ruffalo, has continued to amass, until it almost seems like that is the general sentiment here in Sullivan County.

I can tell you that it is not the general sentiment. There are an equally large number of people who are, if not welcoming, at least understanding that gas drilling may be a way for Sullivan to emerge from a two decade long decline. Natural gas drilling could pump more money into our local economy than it has ever seen. Our ridiculous property taxes would be lowered, and jobs would be created. Many argue that the gas companies would be all take and no give, however there are ways to assure that that won’t happen.

I suppose the “not in my backyard” attitude has always bothered me, and in this instance it takes it a step further. Many of these anti gas drillers are second homeowners, so it is more like “not in my play yard.” Mark Ruffalo’s presence in Sullivan County does little to boost its economy. And I doubt if Ethan Hawke has ever even been here. We all drive cars, use electricity, drink from plastic and ride on rubber tires. That fossil fuel was harvested from somebody's backyard.

I suppose some need a cause, and self righteous indignation feels good. I just think it is all a bit much. Other areas have been drilled for natural gas, and the community has survived and even thrived. There is not a Dr. Evil out there intent on poisoning the children of Sullivan County. Let’s all just relax for a minute, and see what is best for our county.

There were twelve properties reported sold on the Sullivan County MLS this week. Click Here for Listings

My pick of the week is new lakefront listing on Tennanah. I think it is priced pretty middle of the road. There was a much bigger house that went for less on that lake just last month, but I really like Tennanah Lake. And I think this is one of the better lakefront listings for under a million. Its funny, it seems like there has to be one house for sale on Crowley Road. And this is the new one. Click Here

Emerald Ash Borer

2011-06-17T11:53:00.000-04:00

Perhaps in your travels around Sullivan County you have seen these purple triangle contraptions hanging from various trees. Every time I would see one, I would tell myself that I had to do some research and find out what they were, but then life got in the way, and I kept forgetting. Well when I finally remembered I was surprised that I had not read something on it sooner, because it was covered quite extensively by the local media. (There was an article in the Democrat, Record and River Reporter. In Sullivan County that is as extensive as it gets.)

So some may know about our latest infestation threat, but for those of you who don’t, I will tell you. The Emerald Ash Borer, indigenous to Central Asia, at some point hitched a ride over the Pacific, and showed up in Michigan in ’02. Apparently these little insects have a fondness for our Ash trees. The adults nibble on the leaves, with little damage, but the larvae love to bore holes in them until they are dead. Tens of millions of trees have been lost in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and recently New York.

Surrounding counties have confirmed reports of these little buggers, but as of yet, none in Sullivan County. However it is only a matter of time before they show up. Quarantine procedures have been set up by the D.E.C to limit firewood and nursery tree transportation, but most experts agree that it is a losing battle.

Well these purple boxes have a bunch of sweet smelling sap inside that the bugs find irresistible. (Apparently they are also fond of purple.) They work along the same lines as a lobster trap. Once inside the insects are not smart enough to find their way out.

How effective will this be in stopping the beetles? I am going to guess not very. But I suppose every little bit helps.

This is just another example of how our world is getting smaller, and the repercussions it has on our environment. Last year we had an outbreak of “Rock Snot” (Didymosphenia geminata) an algae that was originally from Africa. Earliest reporting of this plant was in the ‘80’s. Although not a significant threat, it is a slimy weed that covered the bottom of the Delaware River for the month of July. Environmentalists report that it is a health risk for the local fish population. Also the bamboo that is prevalent along the banks of the Delaware is not indigenous to this region. Sometime in the mid 1980’s it began appearing, and now it is everywhere, and has choked out a lot of the natural growth along the river banks.

Nature is an opportunist I suppose, and if these species can hitch a ride on our carelessness, they will. Makes you wonder what was on Darwin’s shoe when he first stepped onto the Galapagos.

There were ten properties sold in Sullivan County this week as reported by the Sullivan County MLS.

Click Here for Listings

Maybe St. Joseph Can Sell your Home

2011-06-10T11:56:00.000-04:00

I got a new listing this week. It is another "seasoned seller." He has been trying to sell his house for over two years. He is an older guy who just wants to move closer to his kids. There have been other agents, other offers, and other disappointments. He listened to the experts, dropped his price when told, fixed his porch when told and even thought about holding a mortgage. He is a good guy, keeps his house immaculate, disappears when there is a showing, eats his veggies and loves his grand kids. But the house sits on the market.

Well he is trying a new tactic. He is getting the Lord on his side. Some friends advised him that the thing he needed to do was to bury a statue of St. Joseph upside down in the front yard, and a sale would surely be forthcoming. Being as how I'm barely Catholic, this was news to me, so I looked it up online, which is pretty much how I start anything these days.

St. Joseph refers to Joseph, the adoptive father of Jesus. If you will remember, he had a lot of housing issues. There was no room in the inn, so they took up residence in a stable. Then, they fled to Egypt, then they returned, but this time to blend into the quiet of Nazareth. So if you think about it, he should be plenty sympathetic to people with housing issues.

I researched online, and found that most authorities on this subject say that you should bury your statue of Joseph upside down in the front yard, with him facing your house, and in close proximity to the For Sale sign. If he faces the street, then the house across the street may sell instead of yours. However, if you have neighbors you don't like, you might try burying a statue of St. Joseph upside down pointing toward their house, so that maybe St. Joseph will get them packing instead.

The origin of this practice is a little murky. Some say it dates back to the Middle Ages where a group of nuns buried a St. Joseph medal in order to procure some land for a convent. Others say it was much later, where in the mid 1800's a priest in Montreal used a similar technique in his quest for an oratory. Apparently the mid '90s is when it became all the rage, and now, happily for home sellers, kits containing small, easy-to-bury statues detail exactly how to deep six St. Joseph and pray for his assistance. Also the book, "St. Joseph My Real Estate Agent" apparently spells out the correct steps to ensure full St. Joseph participation. From the picture however I think "book" is generous. Perhaps pamphlet is more accurate. At any rate, the author is quoted as saying. "The distinction between superstition and devotion is created by the person doing it. In other words, if you simply bury St. Joseph and count on that to sell the house, then it's superstition. If you do it as an act of faith, then it's devotion.

So there you have it. For the moment I am going to remain skeptical. however should an offer come down the line pretty fast, I may have to buy some St. Joseph statues, and start digging some holes.

Sold Listings

There were 17 sold listings reported in the MLS this week. I think that is a record since I have been doing this. Keep in mind that most of these deals were put together 45-70 days ago. We will see if this is an odd spike or a trend. All sold listings on the GHVMLS were also reported in the Sullivan County MLS.

Sullivan County NY Sold

My pick of the week is a "new" land listing. Actually this piece was on the market last year as well. I believe for around the same price, 4.5 million. It was originally the land owned by Ponzi schemer Phillip Barry. It is 652 acres on Lake Joseph. (seems I have a St. Joseph theme going on.) Click Here for the original article from the Record. In 2010,this piece was supposed to be auctioned off. I'm not sure if it was, and this is the new owner selling it, or if it is being sold as an effort to recoup some investor loss. I know last I heard, jilted investors were trying to block the auction. If anyone knows the details, drop me a line. I'm curious to the details.

At any rate, it is another piece of Sullivan County real estate that at one time or another had grand dreams attached to it. Barry was going to repair the dam, and build luxury homes that would rival The South Shore Club. Well who knows what is in store for it. 4.5 million seems pretty steep. It is a really nice piece of land though.

Lake Joseph Property

Phish and Memorial Day

2011-06-03T12:38:00.000-04:00

Phish played three sold out shows at Bethel Woods this weekend, and it really went off without a hitch. I think no one was really sure what to expect. There were whispers that it would be the second coming of Woodstock and our roads would be choked with traffic, and all our fields would be crammed with music (and chemically) induced revelers. My weekend bookings took me right by Bethel Woods on Fri. and Sat. and both times I made it through with little difficulty. Feedback from people that I know that went to the concert was all very positive. I'm not a fan of Phish, and I don't really understand the draw, but seeing all the places along 17B open and busy was great to see. It is good for our county, and I think on this one they got it done right. Bethel Woods is a great draw, and has been a bright spot in a community that has had its share of disappointments

Memorial Day has always been one of my favorite holidays. It just feels like summer now, and the way the phone has been ringing means that buyers are out there looking for that place to escape to for the summer. Once again I have a full weekend docket.

Sold listings:

There were 6 listings sold in Sullivan County this week. Actually one is in Delaware County, however it is significant enough (829K) that I included it.

Sullivan County Sold
Greater Hudson Valley Sold

My "pick" of the week is a 130 acre piece in Lumberland on Kalin Webber Road. It is vacant land. It has been on the market for over three years. Original price? 995K. They have dropped it too 430K, and who knows where it will end up, and when it will sell. Is it now priced where someone might jump? Hard to tell, but half a million off your original asking price is pretty hefty. Just another example of the champagne wishes and caviar dreams that fueled the bubble, and are now starting to fizzle away.

Lumberland vacant land

Sold Properties

2011-05-29T15:28:00.000-04:00

Posting this week's blog a little late. I guess technically since it is Sunday I missed the week. However, I am going to cut myself a bit of slack, and say I made it in under the wire. Busy seems to be the word these days. I have been swamped just fielding leads and setting up appointments, so the blog took a back burner.

Ayway, I got a call from an old friend of mine who wants to sell her house in Lakewood PA. Lakewood is in Wayne County, sort of in the middle of nowhere, about 20 miles north of Honesdale, and 15 or so miles west of Hancock/Lordville area. Nice countryside, but further out than most second homeowners want to be.

I have my Pennsylvania real estate license, however I do not sell much in PA, and I am not a member of their MLS. It is something I may do some day if it starts to make sense monetarily, however for now I just haven't really done more than stick a toe or two over the border.

Well my friend is looking to sell her home, and wanted me to give her an idea of what it is worth. I called a colleague that works in a PA RE/MAX office, but he was temporarily unavailable, so I figured I would as a "layman" in this information age we live in, attempt to get some information on the local Lakewood PA real estate market.

It was surprisingly difficult. Active listings were very easy to find. They were splashed across half a dozen sites, tons of pictures and info, including acreage, square footage, taxes etc. However the good stuff, days on market, price reductions, distressed property info, all that was hidden, which makes it difficult to form any sort of opinion.

And sold comp info was even harder to find. Wayne County actually has a much better tax info site than Sullivan County. Tax info However in order to find a sold price, you would need to know it had sold, and then look each one up individually. Still that is better than here in S.C. The only way to find sold info here if you are not in the business, is to schlep to the courthouse and look it up manually.

And that is why I have decided each week to post the houses that have sold here in Sullivan County NY. I will post the ones both from the Sullivan County MLS and the Greater Hudson Valley MLS, and for the convenience of my vast audience, I will omit the duplicate listings. This week we had seven sales in Sullivan County.

Sullivan County Sold

Greater Hudson Valley Sold

Let me know if there is any other info that I have left out that might be helpful or interesting.

My pick of the week is a 115 acre parcel in Jeffersonville with a somewhat nondescript house. It has just dropped in price by fifty thousand dollars. The reason I picked this one is because of the land. It is a gorgeous piece with two ponds, woods and some really big open fields. However like I said, the house is not anything special. Recently there was a 60 acre piece that sold in Fremont in the 600K range, but the house on that one is a really great farmhouse renovation. Pretty breathtaking. However similar square footage, the land on this one in Jeff is comparable, if not better, and there is 50 more acres!

It just goes to show you that the wow factor of the house is what sells, but if you can look past that, those are where the deals are. I'm not saying that this is a deal at 699K, but as the old saying goes, they're not making any more land.

Jeffersonville House with Acreage

Roscoe

2011-05-20T13:28:00.000-04:00

I ate dinner out the other night. It is a much rarer activity we can indulge in now that my son has come along, but every once in a while, we persuade a friend or relative to babysit, and we get a much needed night out. We went to Live Bait in Roscoe. Great little place. The food is American casual, the atmosphere when we went was upbeat and lively. The owners did a great job decorating the place, and it fits into the general feel of Roscoe.

I have always liked Rosoce. It has a different feel to it than other Sullivan County towns. It is hard to explain, maybe it is the way the highway runs right through (or should I say over) it, or the old buildings along main street or all the streams and rivers around it. But there is something that I like about it. There are half a dozen places to eat, including the famous Roscoe Diner, all the necessary shops, including a great little wine and liquor store, and of course the fly fishing shops.

The town is currently in the finals for the title of "Ultimate Fishing Town". Right now they are in second behind Waddington NY, and could use all the help they can get. Click here to vote.

The whole area around Roscoe including Fremont and Rockland townships, and even into Delaware County hide some really nice second home spots. I think this area is overlooked a bit because mileage wise, it is further than other Sullivan County towns. However the straight shot to get to Roscoe actually makes the time in the car less. Taxes are historically lower in this area as well. If you are interested, drop me a line. I've got a few favorites picked out in each price range. My pick of the week below is a Roscoe house.

Pick of the week. This house sits just outside of Roscoe on Old Route 17, which I think is a pretty cool country drive along the Willowemoc River. This is an old 1850's farmhouse. It has been "restored", and the owner did a pretty good job (although there is some evidence of Home Depot pergo). It is a phenomenal spot though. An authentic civil war era farmhouse with water is very difficult to find, and I think it is priced to move. Click Here for Listing

In contract/sold pick of the week. As soon as I saw this house come back on the market at the price it was listed, I knew it would go quick, and it was in contract in a matter of weeks, and closed last week. Originally it was listed above 250K I showed it a few times when it was listed in the 230K range. (I tried to get the listing after it expired the first time, but the owner never called me back.) It is a 3000 square foot Cape Cod on Sackett Lake Road in Forestburgh on 2.2 nice acres. This is a really nice house that is a product of the market. It sold for 140K.

This is a classic example of an owner throwing up their hands and taking what the market will bear. In mid '07 it would have been heresy to suggest this home was only worth $140,000. However this is not a distress sale, and it is now in the comp pool. Like it or not. Click Here for Listing

Support Our Firefighters

2011-05-11T11:41:00.000-04:00

Now that spring is in full swing, and these nice seventy degree days are beginning to feel like summer, our county is showing signs of coming out of hibernation. Towns and roads were busier this weekend, as the slow influx from the southeast works its way towards us. Suddenly there will be a bit more Burberry scattered across the county, and a bit less flannel. The Delaware River will be dotted with canoes, rafts and kayaks, the country roads sprinkled with joggers and bicyclists.

All the local businesses who cater to the summer folk are also getting ready. Signs are going back up, outdoor umbrellas are appearing, and cobwebs are being dusted off. As the local farmers put it, "Gotta make hay while the sun shines."

Well, there is a particular group of people who are rolling up their sleeves and trying to make some hay for a pretty selfless cause. They are our volunteer firefighters, and every year the various stations hold assorted community events, the proceeds literally going to help keep the lights on in the firehouse the whole year round.

Sullivan County firefighters are all volunteer, save for a few in Monticello. These are men and women who live in our communities, who donate time and effort to ensure our safety. And firefighting is not their only duty. We also have a volunteer ambulance corps, but it is small and with the huge area that it must cover, the response is understandably slow. And of course we have state police, and local sheriffs, but they too must cover a large area. So, 99% of the time in any emergency call, the local fire department will show up first. They are trained in First Response, and are equipped to stabilize and save lives until further help arrives. I know a bunch of local S.C firemen, and their commitment to helping others is something I admire and respect. They have families, jobs, and lawns to mow, but they take time out of their busy lives to make our county safer. Good bunch of people.

The fire department in general is pretty inter-woven into the community. From parades to field days to pancake breakfasts, you can find a fire department event pretty much every weekend. In just a few weeks for Memorial Day, there are two parades in Sullivan County. One in Roscoe, and one in Fremont Center. Click Here for Sullivan County Events.

My favorite is the chicken barbecues. Many of the firefighters are weekend grill warriors and take special pride in their grilling. At most of these events you get a tasty piece of freshly grilled chicken, some various sides, a piece of corn on the cob, or homemade potato salad, all for around eight bucks. Whether it be a day on the Delaware, or on one of our lakes, or golfing--however you decided to enjoy the Sullivan County Catskills, stop by the local firehouse and pick up dinner for the family. It goes to a good cause. They are the ones that will show up first should you ever need them.

And now for my "pick of the week." This house (more like estate, it is a 12 bedroom B&B) just came back on the market. It is a really cool old building on Washington Lake, and although it, and the surrounding area is in a bit of disrepair, it seems they are finally having a dose of reality, and have dropped the price. I am not saying it will sell at this price. It needs work, and a bunch more money for whomever buys it. I hope it does sell though. Some fresh energy on Washington Lake would be great. House on Washington Lake. Click on the "show all photos" on the top.

I am also going to add a weekly listing. It is going to be a house that has gone into contract that is in someway remarkable, whether it be the price, style, whatever.

This week it is a house on Australia Road in Lumberland on 56 acres. This house has been on the market forever--I believe well over three years. It dropped in price from 699K to 585K over a year ago, and stayed put there. I know this property pretty well, because I had an interested party. We walked the acreage. It is beautiful land which backs up to 1500 hundred acres of state land that runs all the way to Rio Reservoir. At the top of the property, the views are spectacular, you can see all the way to New Jersey. The house is a log, I believe Beaver Mountain, but the layout was a little cramped and funny. The bedrooms were more like lofts, and open. Despite the obvious draws of this property, I did not believe it would sell until there was a substantial price reduction. I was wrong. I am curious to know what the agreed upon price was. Lumberland Home With Acreage

Late For an Appointment.

2011-05-04T16:47:00.002-04:00

So in my never ending quest to try to understand the human race, and the behavior we exhibit, I have compartmentalized people into two categories. People who are late, and people who are early. I know genius right? but before you scoff at my simplicity, hear me out.

I have noticed that what ever a person does on the first appointment, whether early, or tardy, they will continue to do it throughout the remainder of the appointments. you can pretty much set your watch by it. "A ten minute late guy" will keep me waiting without fail. A "fifteen minute early couple" will be there, sitting in their car when I pull up every single time.

People who are late have always bothered me. I suppose it is because of the punctual conscious household I was raised in, but I subscribe to the theory that a habitually late person is passively telling you that their time is more important than yours. And in a lot of cases with the people I deal with, their time is more important. I don't mind waiting a half hour, if the person I am dealing with is going to buy something. In my mind I am getting paid for that half hour. However the single show, never see you again, hour late person is the one that drives me crazy. But I digress, back to the reason for this post.

So because the total number of meetings will probably be between ten and twenty before the house is bought, punctuality becomes one the defining characteristics that I see as I get to know the clients. But other personality traits emerge as well. Like any relationship, as you get to know the person, actions and behaviors change your perception of that person. So I began to compare and contrast the other personality traits between the two "control groups" Now you would think that the tardy group would be a bit more easy gong. And perhaps the "early group would be the most type A. However I have found the opposite to be true. It is the late ones that tend to obsess over buried oil tanks or leaking septics They are the ones that pour over contracts, while the early group seem to be the laid back go with the flow type. Not that the early group isn't fastidious, they just seem to be less suspicious.

Why? If I knew I'd be the next Tony Robbins. So what type are you?

And now for my new segment, which I will call my pick of the week, where I will link a favorite listing for that week. My criteria will be whatever I want it to be because it is my blog.

This week I am picking a great house down in Yulan, with rights to a motorboat lake. It is an exceptional house for the money, and I know it won't last long. This was a 300K plus house at the height of the market. Sullivan County Lake Home (cleverly placed anchor keyword.) Savvy!

Million Dollar Listing, and the Grass-is-Greener Seller.

2011-04-26T12:38:00.000-04:00

Got my first million dollar listing this weekend. Pretty big deal for me. Of course I will have to sell it in order to make any money, but it feels good to add it to my inventory. That would be one tasty commission. It is the Lighthouse Restaurant in White Lake. It is right on the water, beautiful views from a huge deck with seating for fifty. Restaurant seats 250, and has been in business for sixty years.

Upstairs there is a four bedroom huge living space with great views of the lake.

Legend has it that the final Woodstock handshakes were done at a Lighthouse table, where a somewhat reluctant Yasgur finally gave in to Elliot Tiber's and the promoter's persuasion. The story goes on that a waitress overheard the final plan being hatched, and leaked it to a local radio station (WVOS) and the men heard the news before they even left the restaurant.

Whether time has romanticized the story or not, it is still a pretty cool nugget of history. And it is a pretty cool building. Hope I sell it.

I am not the first person to list this property however . I am the second lister, and I have spoken about this in previous blogs, but I was able to be a bit more sanctimonious since I was the one inheriting the listing (like this one.) However in the last few months, I have lost two listings that were re listed by other agents, (one is even using my pictures to market the property) and regardless of the reasoning, that stings a bit. Both were listed at lower price points, despite giving me resistance when I suggested reductions earlier. The thing that is a little unsettling about it is I thought I had a pretty good relationship with both sellers. In fact one is an old friend of the family. Now it is easy to dismiss this as a grass is greener reaction to a property not selling, and in a large part I think that is true, but this is a people business, and if elsewhere is where they thought they had the best chance of selling, then I failed.

However, if you can take a step back, and try not to bring human emotions like rejection and disappointment into it, the behavior by sellers in a slow market, where things are taking forever to sell, makes perfect sense. Listings, and sellers need to marinate for a bit before the reality really sets in. And a new person, with a shiny new sales pitch makes it seem like it all may be okay. Sellers just want results. The fact of the matter is, besides some tweaks, Realtors in Sullivan County are all doing the same marketing strategies. And in a lot of cases it is nothing more than the right price that sells a property. But like I said before, some agents are of the ilk that a good dog and pony show can give you some time to massage a price reduction and ultimately a sale out of the deal.

My dislike for "salesman tactics" prevent me from this strategy however, although believe it or not, some people do not want to hear the truth.

Oh well, for now I will concentrate on my million dollar listing. Sounds good to say it.

Despite Gas Prices, Busy Seems to be the Word

2011-04-12T11:44:00.000-04:00

Finally had a nice spring day yesterday, and for a while, it felt like summer, as the temperature hit eighty. I spent the day driving around with four dollar a gallon liquid gold in my gas tank, taking pictures of my listings (finally with no snow heaped around them). These gas prices are ridiculous though, and there is no doubt it will hurt our real estate market, and the economy in general.

I consider myself to be somewhat intelligent, but the how and why of this increase doesn't make any sense to me. In April of '09, the national average price was $2.03. Two years later it is double. There is no way this is because a bunch of Chinese decided to buy cars, or Lybia's production has slowed, or any of the other reasons that are bandied about. No, this extra money is going directly into someones pocket, and for whatever reason, no one seems to know, or is reluctant to say who that is. The media loves a villain. Why are they not showcasing who these people are? Are they OPEC fat cats? Future traders? I really have no clue, and I think most Americans don't. The government seems reluctant to take measures, and I suppose the whole "make it hurt so change can happen" mantra holds some water, but I don't believe we are on the brink of hydrogen, or electric, or ethanol, or cold fusion combustion engines. Something needs to be done.

Anyway, as of right now, it seems to have done little to slow our real estate market. Pretty much every colleague I have spoken to has remarked how busy they are. At first I was a little skeptical, but now things are showing up in the pending section of the mls--some really nice high end homes. Click here to see five of them

It has been a rarity to see this many homes above the 500K mark go into contract around the same time. Now I won't know the final price tag until they close, but most of them have not been on the market that long, I don't anticipate much more than 10% off the ask.

Although I am not a part of any of these sales, (and I have a little twinge when this much good inventory goes away) I am bolstered by the fact that there are high end buyers out there, and they have decided to get back in the market. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.

Blog Back from the Dead and a Brand New Website

2011-04-05T09:36:00.000-04:00

Hopefully anyone considering using my services won't think that my lack of consistency on blogging reflects my business practices in general. The fact of the matter is, The Blog is always last on the to-do list, and very rarely do I get down that low. However I again read an article about how it can really boost business, so sort of like dusting off the treadmill for another go at it, I have resolved to keep current, and post once a week.

I had a busy beginning of '11...seven transactions sides closed already. For some I suppose that is not busy, but for here in Sullivan, in the midst of a prolonged real estate doldrum, it is. And it has kept me running around the last few months. (Spell check is insisting you cannot have a single doldrum, but I disagree.)
And although there was doom and gloom again in the media (the numbers for the first quarter of this year were abysmal and talk of a double dip have been circulating) for me, and other brokers in the area, it seems like things are picking up. The interest is there, but all buyers I have dealt with are very cost conscious, and will not jump unless it feels like a very good deal. It is the nature of the market.

I have had some listings that have been sitting for a bit, and my sellers are anxious. There are a few that I think are very good deals, and despite my best efforts at marketing, they continue to languish. Annoying for me, and the sellers. Oh well, patience (from what I've heard) is a virtue.

The other endeavor that has kept me busy (besides a 1 year old who likes to put everything in his mouth. Seriously, he thinks the world is one giant smorgasbord) is a brand new website. I am still working out the tweaks, and it cost me a bit of money, but I think I will reap the benefits. I have learned how to write some code, and although I don't think I will ever be confused with Zuckerberg, it has been a fun project. Now I just need some hits. Click here for my website (See I wrote that link with html. That is why it opens the link in a new window.) Genius!

OK off to preview in the rain.

Horn Tooting, Zesitmates, and Catskill Concierge

2010-10-20T14:25:00.000-04:00

I was going to start this segment off with the old phrase “not to toot my own horn,” but then I said, the hell with it, if I am proud of my accomplishments this past month, then I should be able to talk about it.

I then wondered where the phrase “toot your own horn” came from and despite the information age we are in, there was surprising little on where that phrase originated . All I could find was where someone thought it may have come from the bible, where Jesus says, “when you do acts of charity, don’t announce it with trumpets, like the hypocrites do.” (Well I hope the following paragraphs are not classified as a mortal sin. I need all the help I can get.)

Anyway, I have been working with a first time home buyer this past month, who are serious buyers, but for whatever reason, an agent has not taken them under their proverbial wing, to secure a home, and hence a commission. They had already looked at around ten things when they called me, I guess one agent took them around a few times, and then gave up when there was not a quick offer. They are fastidious and cautious, which I think all buyers should be. Big step, big numbers involved, etc. it’s a scary process.

They found a foreclosure home that they loved, but the taxes were too high for them. Also the home was not up to FHA standards, which, since they are putting less than twenty percent down, they thought that was the only option.

Au contraire mon frere. That is what the “big banks” will tell you. I can’t tell you the number of times I have asked why someone has picked a certain big bank, and the answer always is. “Well that’s where I do my banking.” It is surprising how few people do research on the mortgage end of it.

Anyway I got them hooked up with a local bank that does conventional with five percent down, and almost
a full point less in interest. I also got them in touch with a tax grievance consultant , who is confident that he
can get the taxes lowered. Total estimated savings secured by yours truly over a thirty year loan? Over
eighty thousand dollars. Toot Toot.

Now for the pet peeve segment. I suppose that many of you are aware of the real estate web site Zillow?
Well, you can type in any address anywhere in the U.S., and it pulls tax records, latest sales, a little map, as
much info has it can find. If it is listed for sale, it pulls all that info as well.

OK good tool for a prospective buyer. It has information that ten years ago was difficult to get. However it
has this one feature that drives me crazy, because of the inaccuracy. It is called the “zestimate”, where,
using whatever algorithm they use, they come up with a market value estimate.

Now I’ve heard that they are pretty spot on in denser populated areas, and I say good for the denser
populated areas, but here in S.C.? They are so far off, it is absurd. And people, for whatever reason believe
this number. Now it is not always under market. I have seen numbers thirty to forty percent over market
value. They have a little graph of the last few years, and on some of these houses it looks like the
seismograph of Mount St. Helen. Absurd.

On the bright side, my concierge business continues to take on new clients. All seem satisfied, and the few
that have had little issue were quickly rectified. I’ve put together a good list of vendors, who do tremendous
work. So if you have a second home that need a little looking after. Give me a call.

Busy, Busy--Makes for a Bad Blogger

2010-09-20T15:08:00.000-04:00

I think this may be a record for how long I have gone without a blog post, which does not follow what the real estate experts and coaches preach--consistency at all costs! However I don't hold a lot of credence in what the experts say. Those who can't, teach. If they knew the magic formula on how to sell real estate, then they would be doing it, not coaching others. Besides, I don't believe this blog has generated a single lead for me. It is more of a hobby, and a place to vent-- or hear my self pontificate.

So despite the doom and gloom, that everyone, including NAR keeps churning out in the media, I have been the busiest I have been. Some of this is in direct proportion to situating myself with other Re/Max agents, and working referrals for people who do not want to drive all the way up into the boonies.
Short sales and foreclosures are still in the forefront. Four out of my six current deals are distressed properties. Although maddening, it is where the money is, and so I continue to work them. Dealing with a distressed property one must simply check your common sense at the door, and then slog through, and with enough fortitude, you can make them work.

So between busy and being a part time stay at home dad for my six month old, now that my wife is back at work, blogging unfortunately has taken a back seat. It is always the fifth or sixth thing on the to-do list, and I simply haven't gotten there-- until today. And I'm sure there are a long list of fans, you are internally shouting hooray when they see I have finally posted again.

Gas drilling rumours and debates continue to swirl. We have our very own celebrity Mark Ruffalo who has taken up the cause, and has been very vocal against the drilling. Gasland has managed to scare the bejeesus out of people although I could swear that Michael Moore's name should be somewhere in the credits. It is that skewed and propaganda full.

I am by no means pro drilling, however the "chicken little" reaction that a lot of people, (other than the ones who are signing leases, and waiting by the mail box) are having is a little over the top. All these folks drive cars that use gas, switch on a light bulb that burns coal, and use some sort of fossil fuel for heat. Everyone agrees that there is a need for prisons, but no one wants to live by one. The whole "not in my backyard" reaction is a little annoying.

Also I think if we stay on these gas companies, and make sure they aren't allowed to do whatever they want, it could help this county, and bring in some much needed revenue. They are coming. There has been too much money already spent. Lets spend the energy on working with them, and assuring that somehow we can peacefully co-exist. (Suddenly I feel like singing Koom Bah Ya.)

On a personal note, I can add two more to the list of people who dislike me. One is an appraiser, who is a self important windbag, who came in with an appraisal 1.5% under ask. $3,000. Buyer is a young FHA buyer with only 2% down, so it killed the deal. Tried to politely explain to the appraiser that what he does is ultimately an opinion, and to kill a deal over 1.5% seems ridiculous to me. He responded that real estate brokers have no idea what they are doing, so I ceased being polite. I don't think I'm getting a Christmas card from him.

The other is a home inspector, who found mold in a basement. (Basement had been closed for the summer, as the house unoccupied.) We knew it wasn't a chronic, serious problem, because his company had done an inspection on the same home six months ago, and found no evidence of mold. At any rate, seller remdiated at a cost of a few thousand. Home inspector reccomened that buyer do an air test throughout the entire house to make sure mold was gone. Sounds like a good idea. Especially for him as the cost is $500.

He comes on a day when it is pouring rain, and sets up these air sucking machines in all areas of the home. He also sets one up outside, because that is the control. There is mold everywhere in our environment. The key is to make sure that the levels inside are not elevated, from the outdoor levels.

Well of course they come back elevated. Along with this long report, there is a short list on the bottom of mold remediation "experts" who would be happy to fix the "infestation." Now keep in mind this is a complete remodel, with sheet rock less than two years old.

Buyers understandably freak. They are ready to walk. Initial quotes of mold removal are in the tens of thousands. (although it must be invisible mold, because it is nowhere to be seen.

So I hop on the internet, and start doing some research. The first thing I find, is you never do an outdoor control in rainy, extremely windy, or below freezing temperatures. Its skews the levels. Now if I found that out in five minutes in my office, how does this meathead not know this? And so I asked him that. Another one who won't be sending me a seasons greetings. At least the buyers were levelheaded enough to understand, and are moving forward with the sale.

Today was a perfect fall day. Little Zach is upstairs sleeping. Life is good.

The Psychology of Selling

2010-08-05T13:55:00.000-04:00

I have written about this before, but it is a subject that fascinates me, and I suppose takes the rather mundane concept of selling real estate to a different intellectual level, even if it is in my own head.

I went back to get my brokers license for a variety of reasons, but a major one was my dislike for “salesperson” on the business card. I have the same stigma attached to salespeople, as others, and whatever that word conjures up, be it the used car caricature, encyclopedia peddlers or the guy in the red shirt at Circuit City, there is a negative stereotype attached to salesmen.

I suppose it is the one bad apple theory, but we have all had that one or two week salesperson stalker, the guy who couldn’t take a hint, who calls repeatedly, despite no response, and fills your answering machine with messages filled with cheery fake energy. In his mind he is being diligent--going after it. I have heard speakers who preach this sort of tactic, and to me it is hogwash. Abrasiveness does not sell. I have a strict two call policy. If I do not hear back, the person is not interested. I’ll put them on a drip email campaign, and forget about it.

But what I find intriguing is how and why people on both the buying and the selling side act, and react. If you apply the pretty universal thought that people are basically governed by seeking pleasure, while avoiding pain (and more powerfully the fear, or perceived notion that pain will come directly from ones actions) then it gets a little simpler, but since everyone interprets what brings pain, and even what pain is, differently, it really doesn’t get any simpler.

I have said it before, but the only two times I see a buyer truly happy is when they see the house they are going to buy for the first time, and at the closing table. The whole process in between, even to the staunchest most seasoned buyer, is filled with uncertainty. And there is always, (and I mean always) something. From title issues, to mold, to buried oil tanks, a buyer will cling to a fear, and bring it along, throughout the process. Through the early days, It would bother me, and I would cling to the notion that the problems were somehow an aberration,. Now I see them as a necessary step for the buyer. Fear of change must manifest itself somehow, and if the buyer feels he is being as diligent , it can ally those fears.
I’m not discounting a buyers legitimate concerns, and many times they are legitimate. But the interesting thing is how they are perceived by the buyer. I can show the same house with the same sump pump in the basement to two different people, and one can barely give it a glance, make a comment about how they had one in a previous home, but for the other, a wet basement is an immediate deal killer. And there is nothing I can say to change that perceived idea.

And the question needs to be asked, do I really want to change that idea? Is that the correct route to take in “selling’? I don’t think it is. And again this is personal perception, but I really dislike the persuasive sales tactics. I don’t have the personality or “skills” necessary to do that. And I am doubtful that type of manipulation is even possible. Perhaps you can sway one or two, but the amount you turn off in attempting this, defeats the purpose.

To sum it up, I think that when dealing with a home, whether on the buying or selling side, you are dealing with memories, huge sums of money, someone’s safe haven, the place where all your stuff is, (which is often how people identify themselves.) I could go on and on, it is your home base. Of course it is going to evoke pretty powerful emotions when that is shifted.

And to observe the way different people react throughout the process, and then try to help them is what makes this job interesting.

My First Retraction

2010-07-28T21:00:00.002-04:00

So it seems in my rush to judgement I may have made an egregious error. The type that journalists frown upon. I did not do the proper research, and mistakenly named Sullivan County Renaissance for Sullivan County Economic Development.

When I got home today there was a message from someone who works for Sullivan Renaissance, saying he had read my blog, and wanted to talk to me about a few points. First I thought "Wow people are actually reading this." But then I became suspicious because people never just want to check in, so I did some background, and I really messed it up.

Sullivan Partnership for Economic Development is the group that helped the Dancing Cat get their grant, and who have not acted all that excited about loaning me any money to start a Bethel Re/Max. Sullivan Renaissance is a mostly privately funded company through Mr. Gerry, who I have the ultimate respect for. (OK I can see the eye rolls as Ducey kisses a little ass.) But I am serious. Bethel Woods would not be here were it not for Gerry. He is a self made man, who has given, and keeps giving back to his community. Of all the grand schemes we have heard that were going to come to Sullivan County, and change the landscape, his is the only one that stuck. Dave Matthews plays in our backyard now, and we have him to thank.

So I apologize to the Sullivan Renaissance. (Which I also will do on the phone tomorrow.) I do think that my original thoughts are valid. I don't think seminars and grants are the way to clean up our county's eyesores, but I'm just sitting behind a computer. These people are out there trying things, and for that I applaud them.
Alright, I'm just gonna keep my mouth shut and sell some houses for a bit.

Sullivan County Hassidic Community--The Quiet Grumbling.

2010-07-27T12:00:00.000-04:00

I hesitated to post this at first, because I didn't want it to come off in any way as "racist" or anti-Semitic. However, I thought about it, and being a local, and having my ear to proverbial ground, I think it is a matter worth discussing. And now, after reading the post in the Catskill Chronicle. Click Here it got me angry enough to say the hell with it.

Hassidic bungalow colonies have dotted the SC landscape since I was young. They "summer" here, generally arriving around Memorial Day, and leaving after Labor Day. Many do the weekend Fri. to Mon. thing as well.

I don't know the exact numbers, but estimates have put it at round 100,000. Bay Ridge, and Crown Heights empty out, and certain areas of Sullivan County fill up. They are close knit, keep to themselves, communities. They have their own bakeries, and shops. WalMart seems to be the only "local" place they do business.

Taxes have always been a reason for some of the grumbling, and it is true that certain Hassidic properties are off the tax rolls, because of religious exemptions, and generally the properties that are on the tax rolls are assessed lower, because of their inherit lack in value, however there is some tax money paid on these properties.

The problem I and many others have with these communities, is simply the lack of upkeep of any sort. Run down does not begin to describe the state. Sagging bungalows on piers, piles of debris, ugly chain link fences. They are an eyesore, plain and simple, and they bring down property values around them. No second home owner wants to own in those areas. For the rest of the population, those areas are avoided.

But the real problem I have, is the double standard afforded to them. This county, and its local townships have building codes, that are simply not adhered to in these communities, and I am not sure why. Perhaps it is money. There are a lot of them, and they may have attorneys working on their behalf.

And now, if you read the Catskill Chronicle article...a five thousand dollar grant from the Sullivan Renaissance? Really? They gave them five grand to fix that corner building?---As well as other colonies getting money to fix things. To me it is a travesty. What we need is code enforcement. They need to be held to the same standard of living as the rest of us.

Just a side note on the Sullivan Renaissance. (Which is privately funded, so they can do whatever they want.) They also gave The Dancing Cat Distillery and Saloon in Bethel 20K for that project. Now I think that is gong to be a pretty cool spot, and it will help the area overall.

However, I am attempting to open my own Re/Max office in Bethel. Now I know that a real estate office is not that sexy, and many won't find it especially helpful in the growth of the community, but I never even attempted a grant, I went for a loan, and was denied promptly and with little explanation. However I guess if you keep your buildings crappy enough, you get free money. Ahh but I digress.

I suppose some credit should be given at the attempt, but giving money, and a "Hands-on workshops on spring and summer gardening basics in May and July, and a workshop on improving storefronts in June"--It almost seems condescending. We are all grown ups here. How about fines for code violations? How about getting our local leaders togetherer on a united front, and like I said before, simply hold them to the same standard the rest of us are held to.

Home Inpsectors, Satisfice, and Social Networking Sites.

2010-07-22T17:52:00.000-04:00

I generally think up things to write about in my blog while driving to different appointments. I had two things this week, and the third (home inspector) happened to me today, so I figured I'd start with that. Plus it is a rant, and why disappointment my readership with a change in venue?

A home inspector is a necessary evil to a broker. Really nothing good can come from a home inspection, because best case scenario, the house gets a clean bill of health, and you are right where you were--with an accepted offer. Its not like anyone ever says, "Oh the inspection came back perfect? Let's up the commission!"

No there is only a downside, and there very often is a hitch when you get to this point in the process. As a broker I am ultimately powerless to who does the inspection, and although I can recommend the good ones, there are quite a few times that it is one of the--for lack of a better term--crappy ones.

I have the same problem with inspectors that I do with part time Realtors. It is pretty easy to get licensed as a home inspector in NY (PA is a bit more stringent, and I have found the ones over there to be a bit more professional.) so there are a bunch of these one man band home inspectors, who turn out to be retired guys in their sixties and seventies, The usually have a Dodge Ram or some similar mode of transportation, with a magnetic sticker with the word "pro" in it. "Inspect Pro" "House Pro" Ima Pro".

Every three months that get a call, and they dust off the "thermo digital cam." or some other toy that they think will wow the prospective buyers, and they show up with all sorts of gusto, and point out "termite mud residue, or suggest "sistering" a beam before the house falls down. Mold is everywhere, and all buried oil tanks are leaking.

The guy today used a dowsing rod to "find" the septic. After I told him where it was. Really? Do you think a copper wire magically moving in your hand instills confidence in anyone?

Again there are some full time good home inspectors that I recommend, and there is one in particular that I like. And his findings have killed more than one deal for me. But he is quick, professional, and good at what he does. This is not about duping the buyer, who on many occasions I represent. It is about not scaring someone who is in the process of making a huge decision.

Haven't gotten the report back yet from the guy today, but we'll see, I suppose is esp told him they used the wrong insulation.

O.K end of rant.

While on Facebook, (which I'll get to later), I stumbled upon a blog written by a pretty fascinating Psychologist. Her name is Susan Weinschenk, and she writes about how "Applying Psychology to Understand How People Think, Work, and Relate."

Click here for her blog

I found satisfice pretty fascinating. She goes on to talk about how it relates to someone surfing the web, but I think taking it a step further in business and personal life. Most people are comfortable doing just enough, and the decisions they make reflects that. For someone like me, who is completley independent, this trend needs to be monitored. There is something very comforting about the feeling of accomplishment, but if you let it, it will keep you ordinary.

And finally I have had a Facebook page for about a year now. I am on it daily, and slowly I have started to use it more as a profesional networking tool. However, I do waste a lot of time on it. I pride myself in being witty and urbane. I suppose it is the need for an audience in me. (Hence the blog.)

It really does make the world a smaller place, and I have reconnected with people I have lost touch with, and have made some new friends, and gotten closer with people than I otherwise would. I have upwards of 200 friends, and have spent quite a bit of time surfing through profiles, looking at random picnics and zoo trips, responding to various posts. You know, Facebooking.

Anyway something tragic happened to a Realtor that I have done a few deals with. She is one of the good, full time agents that I speak about. Throughout the deals, we were friendly, but it was professional. I didn't really get to know her. We were colleagues. But we are facebook friends.

Her son was killed in an ATV accident last week. He was 26. Horrible. This happened Saturday. Now without facebook, since we run in the same circles, I would have heard about it, probably early this week. Of course it would have aaffected me. Anything like that would. I would have felt bad for her, maybe said a little prayer. I know I have been lucky enough to have always heard this sort of news about someone else.

But with facebook, I saw the first post about it Sunday morning. There was a huge outpouring of support, and by scanning through her pictures, I found many of him, his young wife, his brothers. They were a few pictures of them laughing and smiling at his wedding. Her profile pic is the two of them dancing the traditional groom and mother dance. He was good looking kid.

Because of this odd sort of voyeur view, although I had never met him, or the rest of the family, it hit me much harder, and has really lasted all week. I have brothers, and have similar pictures on my wall. I guess it just adds another dimension to how we as humans interact. My heart goes out to her and her family though. Sucks.

Cool Thunderstorm

2010-07-16T13:26:00.000-04:00

Took a few shots of a pretty neat storm that went through Callicoon a few days ago. Left behind a rainbow. See, all of you who say I dwell on the negative--life really is rainbows and butterflys.

New historic lows on mortgage rates. And yet the market remains slow. National news just reported one in every eighty-seven homes has received a foreclosure notice. And one in every four homes owes more on the mortgage than the home is worth.

However if you are the few lucky ones who have some capital, now is the time. It may stay this low for a little bit, but it can't forever, and just like there are some nights that I lie awake thinking about how I sold my Apple stock at 18$ a share (pre Ipod, Iphone I friggin everything), there will be quite a few who will say shoulda, woulda, coulda.

There are five homes scattered about Sullivan County that I think are incredibly deals. It amazes me each week they are still on the market.

Once again...when do the cliff divers of Acapulco jump? When they water or when they see rocks? Well the water is coming in.

The "Seasoned" Seller

2010-07-13T09:55:00.000-04:00

One of the things that unsuccessful sellers like to do, after their listing agreement has expired, is switch brokerages. It seems like a rational action. After all if you request a service that is not met, in most other instances in life, you will go elsewhere in an attempt to meet your needs.

I think working for Re/Max, I get more than my share of the second try home sellers. Re/Max's national sales campaign really gets the name out there, and often after a local agency has failed to sell the home, the sellers say to themselves, "Lets go with a big name, and see what happens."

Invariable there are complaints about the agent. He/she was hard to get a hold of, the advertising promises were not met, feedback was lacking. Mostly they feel the agent did not work hard enough, and they-- after a flurry of early activity felt abandoned.

The bad news about being the second lister, is there is always challenges to the property. Even the laziest listing agents put the property on the multiple listing service, and there are a bunch of aggressive agents trolling for good listings, so if one comes along priced right, with the right appeal, it will sell, regardless who lists it.

However, the good news, is they have already been seasoned. They do not have the eager, my-house-will-sell-in-week, enthusiasm that brand new listers have despite what you tell them. They have had people clomp through the house, say thank you, and never see them again. They have had no-shows, and buyers turn around in the driveway--perhaps even an offer that fell through for whatever reason.

And of course price. They are much more willing to come down on the price. Just like a buyer who starts out with a vision of a little perfect place with a "crystal blue Italian stream" a huge stainless steel kitchen, and a Lancaster County barn, for under 150K, seasoned sellers begin to realize that they will not hit the mother lode when they sell, and with solid comps, and a little reality massage, they are much more willing to listen

Even so, here in Sullivan County a good property priced right. (Not under-priced, my job as a selling agent is to get the buyer as much as possible.) can and will often sit for a while before a buyer comes along.

I went on a listing appointment yesterday, in which the owners had had it listed a few times before, even through the boom, but they were always a little above market value. They are at about 40% less than the highest asking price, which I think is still a little high, but they owe nothing on the house, and do not need to sell. Anyway in the course of the appointment, the owner assured me that while he is gone during the winter, he has a plow guy lined up. Its July, talk about a seasoned seller with low expectations.

I think this "seasoning" of both buyers and sellers is what is going to close the divide, and get this sluggish market moving a bit again. Unfortunately like a fine wine, time is the only way for this to occur. I guess the fall numbers will tell us a bit more if there has been any sort of pick up this summer.

His "Real" Job

2010-07-09T19:22:00.002-04:00

I bring up that I am a real estate broker to as many people as I can during random conversations. Well I was waiting on line at the grocery store, and struck up a conversation with the guy in front of me. When it came around to what I did for a living, he said, "Oh do you know so and so?" I said I had heard of him, perhaps seen his listing(s). He says, yeah he sells real estate too, well his real job is...

His "real" job? The median price of a home in Sullivan County right now is down quite a bit, I believe it is around $150,000. The average real estate commission is six percent. So an average commission is nine thousand dollars. Attorneys who sue people for a living would have to settle a forty thousand dollar law suit to collect that same amount of money. A dentist would have to do extensive work, implants or intricate bridgework, to charge that. Even though we have insurance, I saw the hospital bill, my wife's doctor's fee was around that for her cesarean. We could go on and on.

And yet, with real estate, people are ok with a part time, minimally educated agent who knows little about the market, and less about how to make a deal work. It continues to boggle my mind. How many times have you heard, "Oh cousin Jack has his license, so we listed the house with him."

I do think that obtaining a real estate license is too easy, so it is partially the state's fault, but sellers need to be smarter, and do a little legwork. Cousin Jack will cost you a lot of money.

I guess this post is turning into another complain-fest, but the reason I bring it up, is anytime I have to deal with these weekend warrior agents, it drives me crazy, because it makes my job so much harder. One of my shortcomings is that I do not suffer fools gladly. I know..attract more flies with honey and all that crap, but I have a real hard time being patient and hand holding. These are the agents who over show a house, who must be present for all showings, who call incessantly for feedback, who get indignant if your buyer does not see the "gem" of a house they same way they do.

A buyer may not know for sure he is going to buy a house right away, but on a house he doesn't like, he knows right away. There is no reason to be polite, and follow the listing agent around and oohh and aahh over closet space etc., and to take that personal if I cut a showing short? Well sorry.

I've had it happen to me, and the very next person who looked at the house bought it. I didn't design the house. Doesn't hurt my feelings.

I guess I can just make this a word to the wise. Hire a professional full-time agent with experience. Anytime I do a referral, I call the office, and ask for the top producing agent. That way you are getting the best.

HAMP, HAFA, and other bits and pieces

2010-07-06T13:45:00.001-04:00

Just wanted to touch on the short sale modification laws that Obama and crew are pushing through. (Which is I think in theory is great.) Once again though big banks and their Washington constituents have enough of a strangle hold to make these laws and programs weak and basically ineffectual.

To be on the bank's side for a minute, you can't really blame them, although the lending practices in some cases were predatory, they did lend someone money, and it is really only fair that as much of that money as possible be returned.

Short answer...HAMP is a program designed to help homeowners who are behind, and under water, re modify their loan, (in some cases with debt forgiveness, but much more rarely than the wording would imply.) However I have heard of it happening, and it has helped people stay in their homes. It is not a simple process though, and many times as it drags on, and the mortgage is not being paid, (which is a pre-requisite, paying your mortgage can get you booted from the program.) It pulls the property dangerously close to foreclosure.

Now what HAFA has tried to do, is simple streamline a snarled short sale process, and force banks to respond more like professionals, and less like a loan shark from Canarsie. I think in some ways it has done that. If you have followed the rules, and attempted to re modify, your existing loan, and have been unable to do so, HAFA can work in getting your home short sold.

One of the issues, besides the wishy-washy wording, which keeps the banks able to do pretty much whatever they want, is the fact that while in HAMP, you are unable to list your home and try to sell it. So in many cases, homes that may have been able to be short sold, were pulled off the market, while banks in the glacier pace they all seem to move in, attempted to change mortgages so someone now struggling, could stay in their home.

The problem seems to be, that if it is a situation, like a lost job, a loan modification won't help. You can't get water from a stone, but again, banks seem to lack this common sense, and force a mortgagor to go this whole process, before relenting to the short sale.

And in their unending quest on Capitol Hill to help, they unwittingly created a whole new bunch of piranhas.

The wording in the HAFA guidelines states that agent commissions are protected up to six percent of the transaction unless the servicer chooses to retain “a vendor to assist the listing broker with the sale” and if a vendor is retained, “this vendor must be paid from the commission.”

Well now every where you look, there are these "short sale vendor companies."

Notice how the press releases proclaim these companies are creating these divisions to help the servicers comply with HAFA. I guess they didn’t read that it was supposed be the agents they were assisting. I hope that they do make the short sale process easier, but the drafters of the HAFA program (with recommendations from the servicers) shouldn’t have tried to be cute with their wording in HAFA by guaranteeing a 6% commission unless a vendor is hired to assist the broker.

We'll see, all three of my short sales started before these laws went into effect, so I have not had the pleasure of dealing with a short sale vendor. But I will gladly give a percent away if they are doing all the HUD, bank paperwork, hardship letter, financial statement crap, and have an in with a negotiator.

I will list, show, market and sell. That is what I get paid to do. I just have a feeling that these "companies" are going to know very little about how to make this process smoother, and it will turn out to be another annoying step in an already very convoluted process.

http://www.realtor.org/government_affairs/short_sales_hafa

Real Estate Intervention

2010-06-30T20:28:00.000-04:00

Many of today's sellers need a reality check on pricing we all know this, and there has been this sort of eye rolling here-we-go-again attitude among selling agents when they go on listings. However it is a very difficult thing to tell a home owner his biggest investment is not worth what he thinks it is.

Mike Aubrey--who I had the opportunity to speak to--he gave me a very nice referral, yet another perk of being with a global company like Re/Max-- provides a reality check to one "lucky" homeowner each week on HGTV's "Real Estate Intervention."

The popular TV show follows sellers who are either thinking of listing their property or have had their homes on the market without a successful sale. Aubrey, a Hall of Fame and Chairman's Club member with RE/MAX Metropolitan Realty in North Potomac, Md., takes sellers through two comparables – a home that recently sold and one that's still on the market – to show them how their property stacks up to the competition. Then he sits them down for "the talk," which entails a rundown of the numbers and his suggestion for pricing.

Most of the time, the truth hurts.

"Sellers can get extremely upset or offended when I tell them my opinion on what their house is worth given the market conditions," says Aubrey, who remains remarkably patient with difficult sellers in several of the episodes (much more than I would). "Part of this business is telling people things they don't want to hear, but you can't get emotional about it. You have to control the situation and trust your work and the numbers. Having their best interest at heart means being honest."

Aubrey's straight-talking and frank manner has made the show a fan favorite; he gets thousands of letters and e-mails from agents and Broker/Owners who say they watch the show religiously. Some even make it required viewing during sales meetings. After speaking with him, and seeing a few episodes, I took a deep breath, and made a few uncomfortable phone calls. The one thing that he said to me that stuck, is "trust your numbers." Now here in rural Sullivan County, finding valid solid comps can be more challenging. But it is doable.

While it's not much different from what he does with his clients everyday, Aubrey says that the opportunity to show sellers a recently sold comp offers a unique angle to the discussion – something he wouldn't normally get to show his actual clients.

Aubrey got the gig after appearing in a few episodes of HGTV's "Get It Sold" and "House Hunters." But he doesn't consider himself a TV star by any stretch.

"I'm a guy who sells real estate that happens to be on TV – and not the other way around," says Aubrey, who works full-time with his team serving buyers and sellers in the Washington D.C. metro area. "I originally declined the offer to do this show because the filming would've interfered with my business, but they came back to me and offered me a shooting schedule I could live with.

"It's a lot of fun, but it's hard work; I put in 95-hour workweeks between selling homes and taping."

Having his own real estate show has opened up countless avenues for Aubrey to promote his business. He has appeared on the Today show, which invited him back on July 11 (7 a.m.-9 a.m. ET) to discuss online real estate resources for buyers.

Aubrey's real estate anecdotes have been included in The Washington Post and The New York Times, and he has appeared on news commentary programming and talk shows such as "Fox & Friends," and "Rachel Ray."

"One of the great things about doing 'Real Estate Intervention' is that I get to showcase the great work real estate agents are doing across country – especially right now," Aubrey says. "It's a big responsibility to be in a venue where I'm essentially representing all Realtors. So I make sure to do my homework and do the profession proud."

Lakefront listing

2010-06-29T11:43:00.000-04:00

My Re/Max software has a new "imbed" feature for the virtual tour, so I figured I would try it out here. I know...shameless self promotion of my own listings, which I swore this blog would not be about. Still it is pretty cool that I can do this. $289,000 for a five acre brand new house with deeded rights to a big private motorboat lake is a good deal.$289,000 click here

Well the imbed did not work right. It did not fit in the picture, so I guess I still have to figure this HTML thing out. But rather than confuse my vast readership, and delete this post altogether, I created it as a link.

Rock Snot

2010-06-16T11:12:00.000-04:00

I went out this past weekend with a few of my friends, who are all a bit more outdoorsy than I, and a few of the fisherman in the group were complaining about the Delaware and the surrounding tributaries. It hasn't really been covered by the "major" news outlets up here, but after talking with them, and doing some research I found out a bit more.

Didymosphenia geminate, or "rock snot" as is had been nicknamed, is an invasive freshwater diatom (microscopic alga). Didymo can form extensive “blooms” on the bottoms of rocky river beds, essentially smothering aquatic life forms such as macroinvertebrates (aquatic insects), native algae, and other organisms. Didymo uses stalks to attach to rocks and plants in a river system. The diatom actually creates these stalks, which can form masses 3 inches to 5 inches thick on the river bottom, and trail for lengths of 2 feet to 3 feet in the current. It is actually the stalks that are more problematic than the alga. The alga will eventually die off and decompose, while these stalks tend to persist for several months on the river bottom.

It is not native to NY. It started showing up around 2006-07, and has been getting steadily worse. I guess no one is sure exactly where it is originally native too, although it has been in New Zealand for decades. It can easily stick to waders, boat and canoes, even fishing lures. Only a few of these alga need to be transferred to start a new colony.

The problem is the invasivness, it kills all the small insects that the fish feed on, so it is a real threat to the river and stream's fish population. Apparently there has already been documented declines. And a large part of our tourism depends on the weekend, and vacation angler. I went and checked it out myself in Hankins. For a lack of a better term, its gross.

From what I can gather, there isn't really a whole lot than can be done, it blooms in the spring, pretty much covers everything, and then dies off in the July/Aug. months, only leaving behind the stalks. I guess dryer springs, which make the water levels lower make the blooms more prevalent.

At any rate, is is something to keep a close eye on. the Delaware's crystal clear water, and polished rocky bottom is what makes that river so attractive. Rock snot is anything but attractive.

Traffic

2010-06-11T10:37:00.000-04:00

Over the past month, I have been in contact with a dozen or so buyers of mine who have bought from me over the years. Most are in full summer swing, and are piling in the car as early as possible on Fridays, and not heading back until it is starting to get dark on Sunday. (There are a handful who have less traditional schedules, but the majority are Mon thru Fri.)

One of the many differences between the Hampton's and SC, besides its size, is there are a variety of ways to get here. But sort of like the LIE, we have Route 17, which is really the main artery to most of our region.

Well I'm sure some of you have noticed, but starting at about exit 118 (if you are heading east), until below Middletown, major construction has dropped 17 down to one narrow lane in both directions, and from the look of the progress (or lack thereof) this is something that will continue throughout our summer season.

I had one couple tell me on Memorial Day Monday, it took them six hours to get from Bethel to Queens. Ugh.

But again, unlike LI, there are a variety of ways to avoid this, and although it may be a two lane, somewhat slower route, it is certainly better than sitting through that mess week after week.

One of my favorites is Route 17K, which can hook you up with the Thruway, or stay on 84 over the Beacon Bridge and don the Taconic. Or if you are more western SC, you can go 97 to Port Jervis, and jump right into Jersey, of course depending on your final destination, that brings a Manhattan river crossing into the picture, which in my opinion should always be avoided unless it is 4AM.

At any rate, if you haven't already experienced it, just a word of warning. That spot is a mess, and with Bethel Woods concerts starting up, if you catch it wrong, you could be there for a while.

Feedback

2010-06-09T13:47:00.000-04:00

I had a busy weekend. Both days were chalk full of showings. I ended up looking at about thirty homes in the SC area. Although long and tiring, I am not complaining. Busy is good, and also seeing a house is invaluable for the next time some one calls, or inquires. I know the good and bad, and can relate that to the next prospect. There is no comparison. If the agent hasn't seen the house, they know just about as much as you, which is normally just carefully worded copy, and artful pictures, none of which tell the story.

It goes back to my point to make sure to work with an agent who is out there in the trenches, knows the inventory, and can help avoid wasting time. Often if it is the first time out with people, I will explain the issues of a certain property, but follow it up with, but I would be happy to show it to you. After a few of those, they start to trust me.

But to get to the point of my post. I showed two of my own listings, and the rest were co-brokes, listed with different agents. So there is quite a bit of work that goes into coordinating looking at thirty different homes to four different customers in two days--calling, waiting for callbacks, lock box numbers, owners being home etc. Driving around and being a home voyeur is the fun part.

And then Monday comes, and the phone starts ringing. This week it started at 8 AM. Its agents wondering how the showings went, and asking for feedback. I received more than a dozen throughout the day.

When someone shows one of my listings, I rarely call for feedback. I think it is a waste of time. If the buyer liked the house they will call. If there is no call within 48 hours, I chalk it up to a no. Most of the time, the original call will be a question...is the kitchen table staying? How much are the utilities...something that lets you know there is interest.

Calling back over a dozen different agents to tell them my people did not like their listings is time consuming and a pain in the ass. And to get feedback I think doesn't help. Everyone's tastes are different, so if it is small things like...we want a more open floor plan, or there is not enough room for my antique armour, then it makes no difference, because those are things that cannot be changed. And if it is big things, like...we don't like mouse droppings in the sink, or a rusty car in the backyard...the agent should already know about that.

Even price is not worth feedback. If I get a buyer that says they love the place, but the price is too high, I say make an offer, and then the agent will be hearing from me.

An Example of why I love Sullivan County

2010-06-01T10:34:00.000-04:00

This driving range is on a back dirt road. By the honor system you put the money in a box nailed to the tree, (three bucks for a bucket. I think it is a quarter a ball at Chelsea Piers), and hit the balls out into a hay field. The eldery farmer who is retired, does it as a hobby. Every time I am there, I am the only one. Try finding a spot like this in the Hamptons.

Short Sales and Bank Stupidity

2010-05-27T10:00:00.000-04:00

I had a comment from a good friend the other day, that my blog posts have a tendency to be a bit negative. I took his constructive criticism, mulled it over, and decided that newspaper editors discovered long before my time that bad news sells, and who am I to mess with a winning formula?

But to temper this post a bit, I will start out with good news. I had two closings this month, weekends have been full of appointments, and the phone is ringing. Value and more value is still the mantra. Anything over 250K is approached with the same caution as a hornets nest, and on more than one occasion I have heard. "I just love the house, but I can't justify paying that much for it."

Anyway, on to the real reason for this post. The bubble bursting has brought short sales and foreclosures to the forefront of our industry. Although not so much as other parts of the country, they are still prevalent here, and any agent worth their salt has encountered one of these lovely little nuggets of frustration. Most attempt to muddle through with little or no idea what they are doing.

Dealing with either, (although I find short sales particularly challenging) it immediately becomes apparent why our banking system collapsed. There is absolutely no common sense or vested interest in anyone I come into contact with. Every colloquialism is true, they can't see the forest for the trees, penny rich and dollar poor, a bird in the hand...etc.

Every time you deal with a bank, it comes down to the magic "market value." That is what every one of them are stuck on. And you can see how they would be. They are numbers driven, and putting a number on their investments or in a foreclosure situation, their assets is paramount.

However, what they always seem to miss, is that market value is only what someone is willing to pay you in a free arms length transaction. Careful appraisals, or haphazard BPO's, makes no difference.

Case in point. I had a buyer make an offer. The home was listed as a short sale, for 109K. Offer was 90K. Offer was submitted Jan. 2. We wait, and wait. Negotiator appointed, negotiator transferred..yada yada. Finally last week I get a call from the listing agent. The BPO. (brokers price opinion) came back at 155K.

Now a brokers price opinion is a joke anyway. In the banks attempt to save a few dollars, they randomly ask brokers or agents from the area to do a BPO or a CMA (comparative market analysis.) All the agent does is drive by the house, take a few exterior pictures, go back to the mls, find three sold comps, and three active comps, with sort of the same lost size and square footage, and come up with a number they think is fair market value. They then send that to the bank. The bank pays them around 50 bucks, and that is how value is determined.

Using this formula, I could easily do two BPO's on the same house with a 40% difference. It is that inaccurate and subjective.

You might ask yourself why don't they hire an appraiser? A pre requisite to become an appraiser is much more stringent than a real estate agent. And an appraisal is a much exhaustive process, (although still subjective.) Well an appraiser charges quite a bit more. A bank does hire an appraiser when someone apples for a mortgage, but that cost is passed on to the borrower in application fees. Why pay an appraiser 400, when you can pay an agent 50?

Any agent who attempts to list a short sale should submit their own BPO. Often the bank will use it, or at least give it some credence in comparison to another that they order. In my case the agent did not, so we end up with a BPO of 155K. The sellers only owe. 130K on it. The house has sat on the market for over a year. The owners have not paid the mortgage for eight months.

Were the bank to take this deal, they would immediately stop the fiscal bleeding. But no, they will take this absurd opinion of value. Continue to lose money, let the house fall into foreclosure, have it sit as a blight on one of our streets, until it is finally bought for pennies on the dollar 18 to 24 months from now.

When did common sense become so rare?

Random Update

2010-05-05T10:34:00.000-04:00

I am not sure what to call this blog spot, because I think it is kind of gong to be all over the place. (What a treat for the reader.) First off last weekend was chalk full of showings. I spent around twelve hours in my car driving all around this county on a nice spring, actually more like summer day.

Both days were spent around the Roscoe/Tennanah Lake/Livingston Manor area. Neither resulted in a quick offer, but they are interested in a few things, and I have a feeling will be buying something.

We did see a few really nice properties, that are (I believe) around 30% less than what they would be asking for a few years ago. Affordable nice houses on private acreage, in the $230,000 range. Second home ownership is affordable again, and that is what is going to sustain us.

I know the doom and gloomers will say I am crazy, and this downward spiral will continue for the next five years, until finally when we crawl from the pit of real estate slime, and dust ourselves off, only foreclosures under 100K will be dotting the landscape, but I think as soon as the numbers start to make sense, and the dream of a second home is comfortably doable, people will buy.

I do think there will be another dip. Interest rates will climb, the dollar is too weak to sustain right now, and that will be the equivalent of raising every home price by 5 to 10K, but that will be over come.

On a personal front, I have switched Re/Max brokerages. I am now with Re/Max Benchmark out of New Windsor NY. Just this past week I have been introduced to the way a large professional brokerage works, and it is like night and day. I know I have said it before, but because of our county's ruralness, people and real estate people in particular, can get away with a certain lack of professionalism, that would be swallowed up and destroyed in a more competitive market.

I am not saying all. There are some very good competent real estate people in the county that I have worked with, and those are the ones that will sustain, but this business pulls in some who see the lure of an easy buck, and are really not good at what they do, and make no bones about it. Those are the ones that give real estate agents a bad name, and that is why I don't mind the correction. Let the chips fall where they may, and let the strong survive. On the other side will be strong competent agents and brokers who can weather the storm, and are truly professional at what they do.

The Love Hate Between the Local and the Visitor

2010-04-22T09:27:00.000-04:00

I suppose this strange dichotomy has existed for years here in Sullivan County, but I think like everything that makes SC different as a “tourist” spot , this relationship is a little strange, and sort of passive-aggressive. In comparison to locals in the Hamptons, or the Jersey Shore, or further up, where the hostility is a little more apparent, and such nicknames as Cidiots and Massholes, Full-timers here in SC, I think are a little more protected from the influx, so the annoyance is kept to a minimum.

Though, as the internet has made the world smaller, I think in some ways it has brought this clash a little more to the forefront. Most (much livelier blogs) have this undertone, and as issues like gas-drilling and property taxes are discussed, it becomes more apparent. Full-timers feel it is a necessary evil, and put up with a crowded Delaware, less parking, longer lines at the movie theatre in town, or the grocery store, because our sluggish economy is driven by the weekender. Right now estimates are between 30-40% of our money for public schools come from the pockets of people who do not claim SC as their primary residence. That is a huge portion, and really shows how dependent we are on the weekender.

On a whole other level, the Hasidic community is more openly frowned upon and muttered about. The rumors that they do not pay taxes, seem to pave the way for this dislike. (Which according to those in the know, simply isn’t true. The property that is off the tax roll is minimal.) At any rate, what is true is that their bungalow colonies do tend to be run down and in disrepair. Our townships need to do a better job of keeping those communities up to code. I also think that they simply stand out which makes them a target, and the influx, from Memorial Day to Labor Day is so apparent, it helps fuel the dislike.

Not sure where I am going with this, just an observation I had. I suppose neighborly resentments have been a staple of any community forever, and ours is no different.

But in some ways it is different, and mirrors the County. Even this sort of dispute you can enter into only when you want. Or, you can choose to just keep to yourself, and enjoy springtime in the Catskills.

Bad Blogger Once Again

2010-04-19T15:13:00.000-04:00

It has been pretty busy the last few months. Being a new father of course adds to that, and takes some time away from such things as blogging, but I was updating my website, and wanted to update in here as well.

Spring is in the air, and it has brought buyers with it. My last post with the four lake access properties? Three currently are in contract, and the fourth has had a parade through it this weekend. (Listing agents words, it is not my listing.) This does prove that the right properties at the right price will go quick.

I think that is why in this market, it is more important than ever for a buyer to get hooked up with a broker who knows the market, and what is going on. There are so many over-priced-look-good-in-the-picture listings, that I think there are some buyers out there who, after going out hunting a few times, have given up. In my experience the magic number is three. If I can't find a motivated buyer what he or she wants in three trips, the invariably seem to shift gears. Not so much stop looking, but slow it down, start thinking about other areas, etc.

Everyone is different, so there is no way for me to guarantee that I can find a buyers something they will like, but it really doesn't take a rocket scientist to see a property, and know it is a good deal, and could potentially be attractive to quite a number of buyers. That is why when a good listing that is not mine goes into contract, I always get a little twinge. Missed opportunity. 726 North Branch Road comes to mind. Love that old boarding house. Heard just this weekend there is a deal on it.

But in someways, I think this malaise, and this general feeling that Sullivan real estate is crappy and overpriced, is the Realtor's fault. Although now, the under trained, and under motivated are dropping like flies, there is still the part-timer, seat of their pants agent out there, showing on weekends, without a good feel for the market.

I'm not putting anyone one down, I am addressing the possible buyers out there, agents get a healthy chunk of cash for selling a home. Just make sure they are qualified, and they are willing to work hard for the money. What would you pay for 3 to 4 thousand dollars? In no other business is there the possibility of getting paid so much for doing so little. That is what drove the NAR numbers to new records during our version of the gold rush. Well now the big nuggets are gone, but the fervent ones are still sifting through the sand for the smaller pieces. Those are the kind of agents you want.

Affordable Lake Access

2010-03-09T10:19:00.000-05:00

With spring right around the corner, and temperatures hitting around 55 today, people begin to think about summer, and summer getaways, and I anticipate the phone to begin ringing with people looking for that house with the magical "water."

So many prospective buyers have that on the list. Either a stream, the Delaware or a lake. Access to a spot to swim. Why? perhaps it conjours up childhood memories, thoughts of relaxation--who knows, I think mostly it just represents, "downtime"--lazy summer days on the water.

There are four I have on my list for this season. Now full disclosure, two are my listings, however I truly believe they are good deals. The other two are also excellent deals. All four are not lakefront, but have lake access, and on all, the lake is less than a mile away, and on one, you can see the lake from the deck.

Click Here For Listings

Two of these 27762 and 26543 have access to Lake Loch Ada, which is a little known lake down by Glen Spey. It is a quiet non-motorboat lake, About 250 acres. It is a really nice spot tucked in the mountains, and it is lower Sullivan County, so the drive is under two hours.

27762 needs some work, but it is closer to the lake. It can bee seen from the decks. 26543 has been fully renovated, and has a cool lake home feel. Both are priced under 200K, which you can't get a studio for in the Hamptons. Bot of these are really good value.

27941 is on York Lake, which is a little smaller than Loch Ada and it is a motor-boat lake. It is frankly my least favorite lake, but the home is big and impeccable. I don't think the pictures do it justice, everything is high end, and it sits on two acres. at $239,000 it is less than the owner paid for it, and in my opinion another great value. York Lake is again in lower Sullivan County, so the drive is less.

27611 is brand new construction, again great quality. It has access to Tennanah Lake which is a much bigger motorboat lake. This house is the furthest away from any of the lakes, but it has complete privacy on over five acres--were you to be on the lake, the homes are all tucked in together, as is the case with most Catskill lakes. Tennanah Lake is a great lake community, very lively in the summer. There is a 18 hole golf course, just off the lake, and Roscoe is just a few minutes away. Older, smaller homes on the lake do not go for less than half a million, so this is another one that in my opinion is a great value.

I know that there is something about being on the water, being able to wake up and see it, be next to it as you barbecue or have a glass of wine and read a book, and hear the water lapping, but at half the cost, these homes offer 90% of what you would get with a lakefront.

Bad Blogger

2010-02-25T09:33:00.000-05:00

Haven't been blogging in a while, but I have been really super busy. Real estate is not moving so much, (although I have had showings every weekend.) But my concierge business over the past few months has sky-rocketed. Who knew that there were so many people concerned with their second homes.

Many of my customers do have high-tech gadgets where they can see from their web cams on their computers at home, what is going on in the house, low temperature alarms automatic lights etc. but the pure hassle and worry of what may be going on while they are away, is what I think drives this business. A home is a huge investment, and many times, (intentionally) the house is tucked away from anyone else. Being able to call someone like me, to make sure all is well, is a piece of mind, that is worth a couple of bucks to some folks.

I really enjoy it. Driving around the winter countryside, and inspecting different types of homes is a really a nice way to make a few extra bucks. And very often I come across real estate signs and listings I might have otherwise missed. A wise old real estate man once told me that an agent doesn't make money at home or in the office. He makes it in his car.

But today I am snow bound, with a wife who is four weeks away from our first. I was unceremoniously removed from the bedroom I was using as an office, (which is now blue with an oak crib also waiting for the little one's arrival.) and am now in the basement. Its pretty nice down here. I've got a little window watching the snow pile up. Life is good.

On the real estate front, I've got a few deals pending, but both are short sales, where if you let it, it will drive you crazy. Dealing with a bank loss mitigaion department is the equivalant of banging your head against the wall.

Prices continue to fall, and I think sellers some sellers have taken that deep sigh, and realized what kind of market we are in, and that it is here to stay.

"Big Bank" Rant

2010-01-06T09:05:00.000-05:00

So I get an accepted offer on a foreclosed property through Wells Fargo. It is listed with another agent in Orange County, located sixty miles away from the property. They literally put a lock box on it, hung a sign, and put it on the mls. That's it.

It sits for a bit, and there are some price reductions. I finally get an accepted offer, after the obligatory hoops--pre approval letters not only from the bank they plan to use, but from Wells Fargo as well. Earnest money. Background checks through a "money laundering database." Really? We do as instructed. Follow the rules.

The listing agent has done everything but come out and say he doesn't care a bit about selling this property. I suppose Sullivan County is too far, and he has bigger fish to fry, anyway every correspondence is slow in being returned, and apathetic when finally reached.

So the Wells Fargo attorney sends the contracts to my attorney, twenty four hours after the accepted offer, (I know, finally some speed int this deal) however, it happens to be Christmas Eve. Their time stipulations are two days to review and sign. Five days for an inspection, and fourteen days for a mortgage commitment. There is a fifty dollar a day late charge if these are not met.

Now keep in mind the holiday. Does it matter? Nope. My buyers happened to be out of the country. They countered with seven days to review and sign the contracts. Fifteen days for the inspection, and thirty for the mortgage commitment. What was the banks response? Unacceptable, The deal is off. "We are going to entertain other offers."

Meanwhile, the apathetic agent has allowed the property to expire off the mls.--currently not listed anywhere. There are no other offers. The house sits empty, and in disrepair. Lets kill the deal over fourteen days. This is such an example of big bank stupidity.

Now you are probably thinking, that surely there is someone along this chain of he-said-she-said that selling agents have to follow, that will have a bit of common sense, and believe me I have tried. The bank's attorney? Not my call. Listing agent? Not my call, (and I don't give a crap.) Trying to find that nameless person in Wells Fargo who does make the "call" is maddening. I get switched from department to department, and finally to a voice mail, that might as well not be recording, because no-one gets back to me.

I have heard many similar complaints about foreclosures and short sales from other agents. Now I know that this is my little world here in Sullivan County, but lets be really conservative, and assume that this is happening a fifty times a day across the country. My deal was for $200,000. Times that by fifty. That is ten million a day in bank lost revenue.

Stupidity at it's highest form. Take the bailout money banks, I can see why you needed it.

Year in Review

2009-12-29T10:34:00.000-05:00

Well, as 2009 winds down, I suppose it is only natural to look back on the year and reflect on things good and bad, personally and professionally.

On the personal side, we are expecting in March. It is our first, and cautious optimism would be the best way to describe how I feel about that. She is excited, and since she is such a saint. (she puts up with me) I have no fear that she will be a great mother, and together we can be pretty good parents.

But this is a real estate blog, and although my personal life is important to me, I'm sure it is pretty mundane to someone who is trying to gather information on buying a home in Sullivan County.

Professionally I had my best year in my short (four year) real estate career. Now most of that I can attribute to switching brokerages, where my opportunities increased expediently, and also putting it in perspective, "best year" does not by any means put me up there with the Rockefeller's, but in a year of global groaning and gnashing of teeth, I would say professionally it is an accomplishment.

I had some really great clients this year, and met some wonderful, and wonderfully different people. I would like to thank all those who bought, and who's homes I sold in '09. You are the only reason I am in business.

My mission statement for 2010 is simple. "Be there for my clients." I would like to think that I succeeded in that in '09, and I would like to wish everyone a healthy and happy 2010.

Now if I could just get my concierge service business off the ground. It is a great idea, but I have had little response.

“I am not judged by the number of times I fail, but by the number of times I succeed: and the number of times I succeed is in direct proportion to the number of times I fail and keep trying.”

--Hopkins

Holidays Approaching--Slow Weekend

2009-12-11T14:09:00.000-05:00

First weekend in probably about two months where I don't have a full schedule. I do have to accompany a co-broke on one of my listings on Sat. but that is it. I'm sure it is the holidays. People are busy with Christmas stuff. I certainly don't mind. I'll take a weekend at home.

The problem with my "busyness" is that it is not translating into offers and sales. I have a half dozen people I am actively working with, and although I feel we are close on a few, all seem hesitant. There is a prevailing idea that any asking price can be automatically discounted by 20 to 30 percent, many refuse to make compromises, and then even when it all seems like it has come together, there is that nagging fear that if the market declines further, they will have overpaid.

They are not tire kickers. I have been in this business long enough to sniff out the ones who are just looking for a nice day to view houses in the country, but there is just no such thing as an easy sale.

An example I have is the property link I listed below. I showed this property three or four times. It is a nice big farmhouse on seven acres with a few huge outbuildings. Bank owned. It was bought at the height of the insanity for $450,000. Bank started it at $239,000 dropped it to $220,000, (at which time I got an offer for $180,000) I urged my people to come up just $10,000 more. No dice. They "moved on."

The price was just dropped last week again to $199,000. I called back my customers and told them. They said, put in an offer of $182,500. When I presented it...to late. In the course of two days, there had been an accepted offer, and contracts were out

Believe me this is a steal at $199,000, (and it probably went for around $190,000.) But this is my point. For $7,500 (less then the total commission.) Buyers are willing to walk. I can lead a horse to water, and yet this pervasive attitude that unless the property is a steal, it is not worth it. And it is not until the media starts telling everyone that the market is rebounding before this attitude changes.

I know I have told this story before, but I had an economics professor in college who would say. "When do the cliff divers of Acapulco jump? When they see water? or when they see rocks?

7858 State Route 52 (a/k/a CR 111) Narrowsburg, NY 12764

My Foray into the Short Sale Mess

2009-11-30T11:34:00.000-05:00

So inevitably I suppose, the short sale spectre which has been looming this past year, finally entered into my day to day business. I currently have two deals (or attempted deals) in the short sale category. I am the selling agent on one, and the buyers agent on another.

While being on the buyers side is a lot less work, I find it more frustrating, because besides squeaky wheel phone calls to the listing agent, I have no control, as the frustratingly slow wheels of the bank system continuously leave the buyer up in the air as to whether this will actually happen.

Dealing with loss mitigation bank personnel is incredibly frustrating, because it seems there is no vested interest on that end to make the deal happen. All necessary hoops--hardship letter, financial corroboration, comparative market analysis, the necessary short sale "packet" as been submitted, and yet we sit and wait. I do believe that this will happen, but when is the question, and in the meantime, as an agent, all I can do is try to keep impatient buyers from moving on.

I read a stat that 80% of all short sale attempts fail, and the average short sale takes eight months to complete. I blame the lending institutions for that. The obvious apathy that I encounter on every phone call is absurd.

On a brighter side, my holiday weekend was full of showings. Buyers are looking again, and despite what the doom and gloomers are saying, things seem to be picking up.

Slow Business Unless Your a Bank Robber

2009-11-05T12:44:00.000-05:00

I racked my brain this morning to come up with a real estate topic for this blog post, but the reality is, things for me have been quiet. I field daily inquiries, and have shown on the weekends, but everybody seems to be casual lookers right now. I don’t know, maybe it is the time of year, or maybe it is just happens to be the people who are contacting me. There hasn’t been a whole lot of activity on the pending or sold sections of the mls, so I think things in general are quiet.

The $8,000 tax credit did get extended which I think is good news, at least for the economy in general, I think it has minimal effect on second home purchases here in SC.

On the exciting news front we did have two bank robberies here in Callicoon within five days of each other, which is unusual to say the least. The first, on the Bank of America, the robbers were quickly apprehended, but so far the second bunch on the Bank of Jeffersonville remain at large. I’m sure the second was a “we coulda done better conversation” that built into the actual crime.

All the papers wrote that the first bank heist was in excess of 75K which I think is irresponsible to print. It surprised me that one would get that much from a teller hold-up in the sticks, and I think it got the second crew thinking. They should have told everyone they only made off with like $5,000. Probably would have prevented this second robbery.

Anyway just my two cents. Starting to get a response from my concierge business. www.catskillconcierge.com I have two interviews this weekend.

120 Acre Sale in Glen Spey

2009-10-16T12:51:00.000-04:00

A listing just went to sold status in the mls. It is 120 acres on Van Tuyl Road in Barryville, sold for $200,000. Nothing special about the land, but nothing really negative about it either, no power lines or steep grade. It is an estate sale, so perhaps there was some motivation with multiple siblings (just surmising) however, this cannot be classified as a distressed sale. It sat on the market for almost 700 days, price drops from $499,000.

This puts us in a land price area we have not seen for some time in this county--under $2,000 an acre. And it reinforces what I have been saying all summer. Buyers are only pulling the trigger when they feel they are getting a great deal.

At any rate this is going to add an interesting twist to large parcel land comps. I added the link to the listing below.

http://scmls.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=1341b2cf-0fd3-4f7d-af99-3a98280b73dd&Report=Yes

Speculation on the Tax Credit Extension

2009-10-14T15:31:00.000-04:00

From the Re/Max Mainstreet Website

"Quick passage by the House last week of a bill extending the $8,000 home buyer tax credit next year for military, diplomatic and intelligence personnel serving overseas increases the odds that Congress will agree to an extension, maybe even an expansion, of the entire credit program well into 2010.

The White House is also signaling that it sees the overall tax credit program – currently set to expire November 30 – as an important element in cutting the unemployment rolls and stimulating new jobs next year.

After an economic policy strategy meeting last week in the Oval Office involving President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, congressional aides said Democrats generally support an extension of the housing credit.

Reid already has made clear he wants an extension. He is co-sponsoring a Senate bill that would do so for six months.

Congressman Charles Rangel, chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, sponsored the one-year extension of the credit for military and other personnel serving overseas, and is reported by aides as favoring an extension for the entire program.

The White House has not publicly committed to an extension, but has confirmed that the President is seriously examining that option.

An unexpected development that emerged following last week's White House meeting was the possibility of opening up the credit to a broader group of buyers next year - people who sell their current homes and buy a replacement home.

Though details were scanty, Capitol Hill sources said one option on the table would be to provide a tax credit – most likely at the $8,000 level – to replacement home buyers whose incomes do not exceed some limit.

The current credit phases out for single taxpayers with incomes above $75,000, and married purchasers earning $150,000. "

I give it a 50/50 shot that it will be extended. Funny thing is now that we are coming up on the dealine, I have had a few inquires about whether buyers can get in under the wire.

Busy, Busy...and the New Yuppie.

2009-10-06T11:08:00.000-04:00

It has been a while since my last blog post. I have been trying to do once a week, but this past week has been so busy, that I haven't had a chance. Again busy doesn't always mean money in this business, and so far none of this flurry of activity has generated anything concrete, but as we all know, buying a home is not like buying a loaf of bread. Especially with a second home, the idea needs to percolate and age a bit, before it comes to be. All of the new inquiries these past two weeks are new to the process. And that brings me to the topic of this post.

In my own little real estate world, it seems the fear of the "next great depression" has passed. Prospective buyers have emerged from the fallout shelters. Most of the ones who have contacted me are young urban professionals, 25-35, double income couples, (whether gay or straight), in which both parties are pretty even economically. A few have kids, but most don't.

However the "yuppie" stigma couldn't be more off. It seems anything over 2,500 square feet is too big. I have heard, "a little place to get away to." or "cabin in the woods." Heating it and taxes are a major concern. Mcmansions and anything showy is frowned upon. A new frugality seems to have emerged. Not just because of the recession, but it almost seems inherent in this generation.

The other thing is that the buyers have done their research and are well informed. Very often they already know the last sale price, lot dimensions, taxes and sometimes even mortgage information without me telling them. I love it. Working with a savvy motivated buyer makes my job much easier.

However value is the key. Gone are the days where a buyer stretches more than they had originally wanted to. Anything less then ten percent off the asking price is dismissed at hand. It really seem as though the "less is more" era has emerged.

$8,000 Tax Credit. Will it Expire? Does SC Real Estate Care?

2009-09-24T09:25:00.000-04:00

From The NYT's Online Sept. 15th.

"When Congress passed an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers last winter, it was intended as a dose of shock therapy during a crisis. Now the question is becoming whether the housing market can function without it.

As many as 40 percent of all home buyers this year will qualify for the credit. It is on track to cost the government $15 billion, more than twice the amount that was projected when Congress passed the stimulus bill in February.

In the view of the real estate industry and some economists, all that money is well spent. They contend the credit is doing what it was meant to do, encouraging a recovery in the housing market that is gathering steam. Analysts say the credit is directly responsible for several hundred thousand home sales.

Skeptics argue that most of the money is going to people who would have bought a home anyway. And they contend that unless it is allowed to expire on schedule in late November, the tax credit is likely to become one more expensive government program that refuses to die.

The real estate industry, including the powerful 1.1 million-member National Association of REALTORS®, wants Congress to extend the credit at least through next summer. The group hopes to expand the program to $15,000 and to allow all buyers, not just those who have been out of the market for at least three years, to qualify. The price tag on that plan: $50 billion to $100 billion."

Two out of my ten residential sales this year were eligible for the tax credit. So for me, I am at about half of what the national average is, but we are a second home market. Will the expiration do anything to our market? It's hard to tell. If it expires, and there is a dip in national numbers, it will affect people who are getting ready to test the waters again. However I have not seen a last second rush of people trying to buy something before the end of November.

I guess we will see. I think overall it was good for the housing market. Both of my "first time" buyers would have bought anyway, but the credit enabled them to look in a higher range.

NAR is feverishly trying to get the plan extended, so in their eyes it has helped the agents and brokers nationwide. Well lets see...if they are estimating five million home sales this year. Forty percent is two million. Times that by $8,000, you get 16 billion--the amount the tax credit cost the tax payer. Now take 5% of that) the national average of a real estate commission). That comes to 80 million (very roughly) in real estate commissions. I guess we can see why NAR wants this so badly. That is a healthy chunk of change.

Again locally, I don't think it is going to make much of a difference, but we'll see.

Summer is Gone

2009-09-17T11:08:00.000-04:00

It really didn’t hit me until this week how quiet it has gotten up here in Sullivan, post Labor Day. I drove to downtown Callicoon last night and there was only one car parked on main street. I had gotten used to driving through at least once or twice to find a good spot. And then again driving into the office this morning, the roads are all very quiet. The leaves are changing, the fall crispness is in the air. I love this time of year.

But what does this mean for my sellers? A few are not happy. They are worried we have missed the selling season, and with school tax time fast approaching, there are a few that are re-examining their strategies.

In my short real estate career it has historically seemed like the fall is not a bad time for activity here in Sullivan. Now granted if you go by the sold numbers in the fall, those are all deals put together in the middle of summer, and for some the search may have begun around Memorial Day. However, my phone is still ringing, and people are still making appointments.

I think for smart buyers, now would be the time. When is it the best time to by an air conditioner? Certainly not the first eighty-five degree day in June. And we all know the best time to get Christmas decorations is Dec. 26th.

It will be interesting to watch the pending list over the next couple of months. I think the fall will continue the upward trend of activity.

For now though I will enjoy the quiet sidewalks of our little towns, and watch the leaves do their thing. Fall really is the best time of year.

Gas Drilling Seminar

2009-09-09T12:55:00.000-04:00

I attended the natural gas seminar last night put on by the Independent Oil and Gas Association.. It was a pretty packed house, standing room only, and the first part of the night was somewhat informative. However the q and a portion turned into a bit of a donny brook, with some pretty off the wall questions and accusations.

It really didn’t answer too many of the questions people have had in this county since this whole thing came up. We were assured that the D.E.C. will be closely regulating all drilling activity, that there has been no instances of contaminated drinking water anywhere in New York State, since the first well was drilled years ago. It sort of reminded me of Alien Invasion. “We come in Peace.” There were vague promises of road repair, and examples where they had built bridges in the past. They also made references to other areas of New York, where wells were present in the back yards of schools, and in wineries.

They explained the fracturing process, which is 99.5 percent water and sand, the other .5 percent being a lubricant, and some sort of soap. All very benign sounding. There were graphs of comparative water usage. (Apparently golf courses use much more water then gas drilling.) And promises of rigs being silenced at dusk.

However any specifics, and they became vague. I paraphrased a few below.
What happens to the contaminated water? “Well, there are a few possibilities, one of which is setting up a treatment plant, another is re-using the water in a different well.” (Again promises of D.E.C. involvement.)

How many wells will be drilled? “Well right now there are 650 rigs in the entire U.S. so the reports of thousands of wells is untrue. It will probably start off with a few, and if they are successful, more over time.”

How can you be sure that there will be no drinking water contamination? “In 2004 the EPA after looking at 452,000 wells in the U.S. concluded not a single case of water contamination from gas drilling.”

One of the most interesting spins was the promise of local tax revenue, and how the companies were going to pay these taxes directly to local municipalities. However when it was explained more, it is actually an ad valorem tax--a real property tax, which is directly linked to the amount of gas pumped from a well. In essence a property’s assessment will rise due to the fact it is more valuable because of natural gas. However they made it sound as if the gas companies would be paying the tax, when actually it will come from the land owners.

Without question, since it was put on by the Gas Association it was a bit slanted, and some was out right propaganda. However they are coming, its just a matter of when. I guess we can only hope our state and local officials police them enough to keep us safe. I do have a gut feeling that this will actually be good for the county once it is up and running. I attached some links below.

www.iogany.org

www.marcellusfacts.com

www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/minres/oilgas/FractListing.pdf

Catskill Concierge

2009-08-25T10:17:00.001-04:00

I have decided in my unending quest for extreme wealth, to start a business, while still building my real estate empire.

Seriously though, it seems that on every transaction, as the second home buyer nears the closing date, I start to get the questions. Do you know someone who can plow my driveway? Do you know a good plumber? What is the crime rate in this ares? Do I need a good security system?

Everyone is busy, and most people who are successful enough to afford a second home purely for leisure, are working pretty hard to achieve such a level of financial success, and it takes up a pretty healthy chunk of their time. Owning a second home requires a certain level of maintenance, and that part of home ownership can be a drag.

Most don't seem to mind the lawn mowing and gardening (because on 2nd ave and 84th, on the 12th floor, there is very little lawn) but the other stuff, general house work, snow plowing, window washing etc. Who wants to spend their weekends doing that? And then there is the dreaded "freeze-up" where the heat shuts off in an unoccupied house, and a pipe bursts.

So with the help of a small team of eager currently unemployed entrepreneurs, we are in the process of starting Catskill Concierge, a full service concierge service in Sullivan County. It is in its infancy stage, but I would love to hear some feedback, and hopefully a few customers. I attached a link to the new website below.

http://www.catskillconcierge.com

Fixer-Uppers Are Still Out There

2009-08-20T12:39:00.000-04:00

It has been awhile since my last post. I went away for a bit, and have been pretty busy, just trying to catch up, and field daily new inquiries. It seems that there is plenty of interest, but still only at the "bargain level" for whatever price range. It appears people's perspectives are still being dictated by the media, and the news that this may be the bottom has got people poking their heads up out of their respective foxholes, but again only if it is a "deal".

However some sellers are responding, and I have had a few calls on things that appear to be just that...a deal. I went out an previewed two properties this week that I had calls on. Now I suppose a "deal" is in the eye of the beholder, but these two properties in particular caught my eye enough to write about here.

Neither are my listing, so the suspicious folk do not need to worry that I am plugging my inventory.

Click here for listings

The old boarding home is a pretty unique building. First of all, it is set on 78 private acres. Some of it is open pasture and a nice stream, (although a pretty major portion is on a hillside). It has its own private wooden bridge to get to the property, and most (if not all) of its originality remains. I also added a couple of my own shots below. This is one of those properties that make you feel like you are stepping back into the fifties. All the bedrooms are small, but there are 12. Hardwood floors are original, the barn is also original and huge.

Check out the player piano with all the scrolls. Every once in a while you get the hair on the back of your neck cool feeling about a property, (kind of like when you hear a song you really like for the first time.) and this one definitely has it.

It is a ton of work--many would consider it a money pit or a headache, but an original old 1850's boarding house on 78 acres with a stream under three hours from midtown for $319,000 to me is a "deal". I say this one is in contract by Oct. 1. Anyone want to take an over/under on that?

The other property is considerably less money, but has the same kind of old originality. It was the general store in Galilee, PA for years. This property is also pretty big (five bedrooms and a big space downstairs), and needs work. Most of the original building remains, although there were some hodge-podge renovations over the years. Portions of the tin ceilings have been destroyed, which is a real shame, but I think they can be salvaged. Also, there is little evidence of Home Depot around.

However, this is another property where you feel like you are stepping back in time. Many times I hear the complaints that old-school originality is tough to find, and often what was once vintage is now covered by cheap '70's paneling or foofy 80's textured wall paper. Here are two of examples where the right person can really get in there, roll up there sleeves, and turn either one of these into a truly spectacular properties.

The Bait and Switch and the High Maintenance Seller

2009-08-01T12:05:00.000-04:00

I got a phone call from a listing of mine that they no longer wish to retain my services as their listing agent. They want to terminate the agreement, and attempt to sell the house on their own.

Now please understand this post is not about me defending my abilities as a listing agent, and defining their actions as impulsive and unwise, but rather the interesting situation as a whole for a real estate broker.

The listing agreement reads that should a prospective seller break the agreement before the expiration date, the agent is due financial consideration for advertising and services rendered. I know some brokers who hold clients to this, but I don't. If you are unhappy or just wish to move on, God bless. No hard feelings. The last thing I want is someone who feels trapped by my services. I do spend money on advertising, but rarely on one listing. It is more of a marketing approach as a whole.

Anyway, Mr. and Mrs. X want out. So be it. Their home was shown nine times in five months. Nine ready able and willing buyers who chose not to buy this particular home. The feedback? House too small 1,300 sq. feet. Bedrooms too small. Too close to the highway. Although urged, they were not willing to drop the price any further. (We did have three price reductions.) Again not blaming them. They are a very nice couple, who really would like to sell. I feel bad that I was not able to help them sell their home. I spent quite a bit of time with them, going over numbers, changing and moving signs, almost daily phone calls. It was a lot of work, for it to turn out to be nothing.

Or was it nothing? (This is where I finally get to my point.) Two couples that I showed Mr. and Mrs. X's house too, have made offers through me on other houses. One is within a half a mile, and has already signed contracts, and should close in the next few weeks. Without having that listing, and having the opportunity to market it, I would not have meet either couple or made either sale. Is it the bait and switch? I had the bait, and it did turn into a switch, so I suppose in the most basic form it was.

Now we all know that the illegal form is when the bait is non existent and is advertised purely as a lure. I just think it is interesting when you take a look at it, how well such a scheme can work.

There are a few Realtors in the area who leave listings on their websites long after they have either sold, or gone off the market. "Oh I'm sorry, that house just went into contract. But do tell, what type of home are you looking for?"

I do believe that Mr. and Mrs. X were a bit impulsive deciding to have a go at it on their own ( and if they list with another broker, so be it.) Nine showings in five months is pretty good for times like these. You can lead a horse to water...

Did I fail? I failed Mr. and Mrs. X, but I did not fail my business, or the two buyers who found homes.

Cold Feet

2009-07-26T20:50:00.000-04:00

I had the first full weekend with no showings in quite some time. The odd thing is, is that I was busy showing during the week. Who knows, perhaps with people getting time off, they use the weekends for leisure activities. I am not complaining, as I spent the weekend going to the various local events. The Narrowsburg Riverfest was a relaxing way to spend an afternoon, and some of the art work that was auctioned off was pretty special.

I did get a call from a buyer of mine, who is scheduled to sign contracts tomorrow. He e-mailed me a few other listings, that he wants to see before he stops by the lawyers office, and we once again discussed the compromises he is making on this house, and the "shortfalls" for lack of a better term. I did my best to dissuade his fears, without sounding like a pitchman, (because I think once I come across as a "salesman", I've lost my credibility.) But I know he still has a bit of trepidation.

This is the third time I have shown a buyer other houses, after an accepted offer, and a satisfactory inspection, and in this case a succesful appraisal. The classic example of cold feet.

I can certainly empathize. I think we have all been in that position where once the excitement and the rush wear off, you are left with that nagging doubt, and that feeling in the pit of your stomach that you may have made a horrible mistake, and the perfect home at a perfect price is out there somewhere, and you have missed it.

I have made the comment before that the only two times I see a buyer perfectly happy, is when they finally find the home they want, and at the closing table when they finally own the home. The whole process in between is fraught with uneasiness, as the different obstacles are negotiated, and it can be quite frightening. It is such a huge investment, that often every decision is second guessed and agonized over. It's human nature, to worry when you are out of your comfort zone.

It can be frustrating at times as a broker, because it seems a buyer will do a one-eighty, often overnight. All I can do, is stress value, and assure that these hiccups are in every deal.

Buying a home, even if it is a second home is an emotional undertaking from the moment the buyer walks through a house, and "feels" it is right, until, they sign their name on the check ( or mortgage) with a bunch of zeros. Of course there will be fear and a bit of regret mixed in. I just hope my attempts at allaying those fears (whether they by that house, or a different one) help ease the apprehension, and make the process a bit smoother.

The Dreaded "Underwriter"

2009-07-16T09:48:00.000-04:00

I had the last twenty-four hours where I thought I deal I have been working on for months was dead in the water. We had managed to get over every hurdle with this property. It is a large parcel with a small house, most of the value is in the land.

Most banks won't lend on a property with more than 40% of the value in the acreage, (which is a Freddie and Fannie guideline, look how that worked out for them) but we shopped around a bit, and found a lender who assured us it wouldn't be a problem.

So we slogged through the process, ducking issues as usual, inspections with wet basements, surveyors who are slow as molasses, the appraisal, which I was concerned about, simply because you never know, came back 10% higher than the accepted offer. I thought we were golden.

Then I get the dreaded call. The underwriter kicked it back. Too big a risk with that much land. Now keep in mind, my client is plunking down over 30% cash. With the amount that is being financed, I could sell this property over a weekend for that amount. I don't see the bank risk, that this shadowy "underwriter" has seen.

And that gets me to this whole underwriter thing. Who are these people? Even the name is ominous. Some nameless, faceless guy sitting in a florescent lit room, with a giant approved/denied stamp, thumping mortgage applications with an evil cackle. I understand the whole need to keep fraud out of the system, but this cloak and dagger stuff is a little over the top.

At any rate, so far the story has a happy ending. Using my inside voice, I explained reasonably to the loan officer that she assured me this would not be a problem, and that is why my client chose to go with her company. (Believe it or not there were a few others willing to loan on what is essentially vacant land.) After a day of back and forth, the "underwriter" approved it, and for now the deal is back on.

Now if you are an underwriter reading this, please don't take it personally and send me a nastygram, I'm just ranting a bit, and you must admit, like I said before the secrecy thing is a little over the top.

Buffalo Zach's

2009-07-08T09:42:00.000-04:00

Had a great experience at this eatery in Roscoe. And I would recommend it to all who are in that area. It is right off of 17 in "downtown" Roscoe. It has a large outdoor comfy eating area. The interior has a southwest/Starbucks feel without being cheesy. The food was delicious, and the service efficient and friendly. Tikki torches surround the outdoor deck, where there are weekend afternoon concerts--bluegrass and country, as well as some pretty talented one man bands. It is very pet friendly, and I have never been there when there has not been a pooch or two drapped over the feet of their owner on the deck.

There are some pretty cool eateries popping up here in Sullivan, which I think is a great sign, but what sets this one apart is the owner, Peter Swensey.

Peter is a soft-spoken, hard-working guy who oozes earnestness, and is impossible to dislike. He greets and chats with all the patrons, and his personality really shows not only in the decor, but in the feel of the place. Jason Dole wrote a great article in The Towne Crier a few years back about Peter. I attached a link below.

Anyhow, if you are ever in the area, and want to stop off the highway, for a bite of lunch at a great little spot, stop by Buffalo Zach's. I recommend the roast beef panini with roasted red peppers, and cheese and horseradish sauce.

http://buffalozachscafe.net/picts/BZ%20Advertising%20flyer%20from%20newspapers.pdf

Value for Price Paid

2009-07-01T10:47:00.000-04:00

Interesting pattern to the three listing that have dropped in price today on the mls. All have been on the market for under 60 days, and have dropped in price between $10,000 and $20,000. I think this is indicative of listing agents becoming much more adamant with sellers that if there is little activity on a property early on, a price drop is necessary.

Very often on the listing interview, there is a negotiation of sorts that goes on between the agent and the seller. The comparables may say one thing, and the doom and gloom media foretell the same sad state of the real estate market, but sellers still hold on to the hope that their property is worth more than it is. So often times a property is listed $20,000 higher than what the agent believes the market will bear. The compromise? Oh if we don’t get any activity on it in the next few months, we’ll drop the price. I think that is what is happening here.

I hear from buyers agents often in a sort of an outrage that sellers agents are willy nilly picking inflated asking prices, and that is why there is this slowdown in the market. I disagree. I think that pricing a home is the single most difficult job an agent has.

There are so many factors that go into determining value. First off, our fiduciary responsibility is to the seller. Not the buyers agent, or the appraiser, or the real estate market in general. It is our job to get the highest and best price for our client.

It reminds me of something that stuck in my head while I was working at the Waldorf=Astoria Hotel. We had a review meeting with the company that manages the comment cards left in the rooms. Now obviously the goal was to receive scores of ten on questions like “room cleanliness” and “friendliness of staff”, but the one question, “value for price paid”, they were looking for a five. Why? Because a ten meant that the rooms were priced below market.

It is similar with pricing a house. If I sell a house as the listing agent, and the buyer feels he has found a great deal. I have not done my job. I am looking for a five on value for price paid. Now it does become more difficult as the market drops, to find that balance, but that is why sellers pay us a substantial chunk of their house’s worth.

The Camping Renaissance

2009-06-22T09:14:00.000-04:00

Quiet weekend. I'm not sure if it is the weather, or the end of the school year, but I did not have appointments either day. I did have to meet an appraiser on Saturday up by Parksville, and that gave me an excuse to stop in and see my friend Ann at Hunter Lake Campgrounds. Besides this soggy week, she says they are having one of their busiest seasons ever. (And she's been there almost thirty years.) I got a similar report from the owners of Soaring Eagle Campgrounds right over Kellams Bridge in Stalker PA. They have been just about full all season so far.

There has always been a pretty substantial camping business in Sullivan County, but now with the recession, and people returning to a "simpler time" (the media seems to have latched onto that phrase) it seems camping is having a bit of a renaissance.

There really are some hidden gems as far as campgrounds go in our area. Hunter Lake is one of my favorites, not just because the owners are real hardworking likeable people, but because it has that upstate Adirondack/Lake George feel, at half the distance. The lake is gorgeous and the campsites are tucked in by the lake. http://www.hunterlakecampground.com/

Lander's Campgrounds at Skinners Falls is a pretty popular one, but there are quite a few all along the Delaware. Most have canoe or kayak/tube rentals, so you can enjoy the river.

Here is a list of a few others. http://www.catskillhikes.com/sullcamp.html

While there are detractors from the whole camping thing, there really is no other vacation or weekend getaway that compares in price. Yeah there are bugs, and the possibility of rain, and dirt, but I remember as a kid, sitting around the campfire at night, the fireflies blinking, the smell of smoke in the air, a stomach full of smores and hot dogs. Without sounding like a visa commercial, those memories are priceless.

Many of my buyers have similar memories of this area. It seems when they are describing their dream property, it hearkens back to a childhood summer memory, whether it be camping, or a relative who owned.

So during the lean times, lets cultivate a whole new generation, who will fall in love with the Catskills. And if you make it up to Hunter Lake, say hi to Ann for me.

Interest Rates and Gas Prices...What else for a Perfect Storm?

2009-06-16T12:48:00.000-04:00

There has been a rather disturbing trend happening over the last few weeks that I have an uneasy feeling may effect the slight bounce in our real estate market.

One of the things that brought buyers back, was obviously the historically low interest rates, and to a lesser degree, (although some would argue this point) gas prices. I have had this discussion before, and there are people who are adamant that if a second home buyer can afford a 200k plus Sullivan County home, and a place in NYC or surrounding area as a primary home, and afford all the expenses that go along (two heating bills, two tax bills etc.) a sixty cent jump in gas prices will not effect their bottom line.

I disagree. Now I'm sure there are people out there who pay no attention to gas prices, but the vast majority of my buyers, are stretching for the dream of country home ownership. An extra fifteen dollars a trip, translates to $60 a month. If you added $60 a month to payments on a 30 year fixed at 5.85% (the current rate) it would be a difference in price of $14,000. That is a pretty big difference in buying power.

Now add almost a whole point onto an interest rate, and you can see how timid buyers may duck back down into the foxhole.

I am normally a pretty bullish guy when it comes to our real estate market. But even I started to scratch my head at some of the prices back at the end of '07 and into '08. We have all witnessed a pretty major correction. (20 to 30% percent by some estimates). I still truly believe that there are some good bargains out there, but this belief that we have reached bottom?...I am not so sure.

I think if interest rates stay around this level, and gas prices do the same, we will stay at status quo. I am just concerned that one more event...one more big corporation collapse, or 400 point Dow drop, or a big jump in unemployment...could freeze this market again, and we may not see signs of buyers picking themselves up and dusting themselves off, until the fall.

Hope that is not the case. Right now in my personal real estate world, things are moving right along. Maybe it is paranoid to look over one's shoulder. I just feel we may be at a cross roads and the next few months will really determine which way we move.

Really?

2009-06-11T09:56:00.000-04:00

I stayed up to watch Saturday Night Live last week. Something I haven’t done in a while. SNL really isn’t what it was back in the day, but I digress.

Anyway they have the segment …“Really?” during the weekend update. I found myself saying that a lot this week, as I encountered the relative insanity in my profession, and surroundings.

Like the fact that a stove needs to be sitting in a kitchen of a brand new construction. It doesn’t need to be hooked up, just be there for the appraiser to see. Fridge? Not necessary. Just a stove. Or else it doesn’t appraise. A $300,000 home missing a $200 non-working stove. The bank will not loan on it Really…

Or the fact that our state can manage a hostile takeover, and shut the doors for two days, and yet fixing a pothole is too big an undertaking. Are these guys still getting paid while the doors are locked? Of course they are. I know this partisan crap has been around forever, but really? Is this the way grown ups in “power” act? Really? And we have people who still believe that gambling will come to our county. These people can’t get out of their own way. (And that is not a blind knock on the governor. We know he is sensitive.) Really.

How about the co-broke showing I went on, where the owner told me “realtors aren’t worth an eff.” Really. Nice to meet you too. I think you need a Prozac and a nap. Oh and by the way, the reason your house isn’t selling is not because agents are not worth and eff, its because it smells like dog pee, and it only has one bathroom. Really.

I had two closings this week. Really. First time in my career. One was a house that I listed. The owner is the sweetest eighty year old women you ever want to meet. She is moving to Florida to be close to her daughter. She had lived in the house since it was built in 1951. We had some attorney issues, survey issues, and appraisal issues. (Like any deal there is always something). She stuck through it all like a trooper. She flew off to Florida this morning, and left me a card with a fifty dollar gift certificate to Red Lobster, and a note saying I am the best real estate agent ever. That makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Almost more than the commission check… Really..

Primary vs. Second Home Buyers

2009-06-08T10:03:00.000-04:00

As most of my readers, (if there in fact are any, besides my sister) know, I mainly specialize in second home buyers, city or suburb dwellers looking for a weekend/summer place. Every once in a while though, I get someone looking for a primary home. I had just such a family this weekend. A nice couple with three kids, re-locating to our area from Jersey. His company transferred him, and she is going to be working at our local hospital in the O. R.

They knew very little about the area, except that they needed to buy a home, and to be in it by the time the kids are back in school. It was nice taking them around, showing them different areas, and homes. It was a long day, but one that was beneficial.

Since it had been a while, the difference between primary and second home buyers was blatant. First of all, this couple has already made an offer on one of the houses we saw. That has never happened to me with second home buyers. For them it is at least two trips, and very often much more.

I liken it to buying milk and jewelry. If you go to the store to buy milk (a necessity) you will come home with milk, however, with jewelry, it must grab your eye, tantalize you, touch that human urge portion of your brain. That is what will trigger a purchase.

But then some might ask why I don't turn my attention to primary buyers, and in fact after getting such a quick offer, I contemplated that very idea. And the reason is simple. Showing nondescript ranches, and 3.5 bedroom modulars is boring--the dairy section of the real estate industry. I'd much rather work in the jewelry store, where things are more aesthetically pleasing. Sure you may have to work a bit harder, but the environment is better for the soul.

Rust in Peace

2009-05-31T10:06:00.001-04:00

After a crazy weekend last weekend, and a runaround day yesterday. I have no appointments today. It was a busy week, and possibly constructive. I have a few possibles. But today...nothing. I'm not complaining, it is a chance to catch up on some things, and relax a bit.

I have a new listing in Delaware County on the Beaverkill. Check it out on my website. I have decided not to really plug my listings on my blog, because it is a little gauche and not what this forum was intended for.

The only reason I bring it up, is I really have not explored that region along Old Route 17. It is a nice area, and it is not far from Roscoe, making it pretty accessible. If you are into trout fishing, I guess that is the spot to go. There were a ton of fisherman out and about, all dressed up in their angler finest. It is an area I plan on paying more attention to. Roscoe really is a cool little town, with Buffalo Zack's, and Live Bait and of course the Roscoe Diner (which is a great spot to meet customers, because everyone seems to know it.)

If you are currently looking, but are one of those leery about stepping over the magic 100 mile from NYC mark, I recommend checking out. It is a little further, but it may well be worth it in price and appeal.

I snapped this shot along Old Route 17. I think it shows the fun, hip feel of the area.

Would love the back story on this. Anyone know?

Listing Homes in Today's Market, and the Passive Aggressive Seller

2009-05-26T09:16:00.000-04:00

As a broker that works with both buyers and sellers, it is sometimes a strange dichotomy being on both sides.

Sometimes I am jealous of, and contemplate being a buyers agent. It would seem to be simpler, have an us versus them attitude, and travel around with abject disdain at any and all over priced listings.

There is absolutely something pure and hopeful about meeting and working with a motivated buyer. Newness and discovery, and exploration.

On the other side, selling seems to be a sadder experience. Really the only thing that makes a prospective seller happy when meeting with a broker is the hope that the home is worth what they have heard it may be. Everyone has heard whispers about what it may be worth, but they always seem to cling to the highest. That is until John the Grinch comes along and shatters their illusions.

It reminds me of an incident that happened to me when I was around eighteen or nineteen. I was helping my then girlfriend's family clean out an old barn full of furniture. I discovered a Hank Aaron rookie baseball card from the Milwaukee Braves from 1954. Her family said I could keep it. I had a feeling it was worth some money. But I had no idea how much.

Now this was at around eight o'clock on a Sunday night, in the very early nineties, so there was no way to verify how much the card was worth. There was no google or yahoo or eBay or howmuchisthiscardwoth.com. I had to wait until Monday to call a card dealer.

Now keep in mind that to me this was found money. But throughout that evening the worth of that card ballooned in my head. I spoke to a friend who told me his dad sold a Mickey Mantle rookie card for like $75,000. By the time I went to sleep that night I was a possible millionaire.

It turned out the card was worth around $800. $800 of found money, but by the time I spoke to the card dealer, I was disappointed.

It seems that this same thing happens to a lot of the possible sellers that I speak with. I have a very careful comparative market analyses that I follow, and when I present them with what I feel the home is worth, invariably I get the crestfallen look, and a stony silence.

Now the ones that protest, are easy. I am armed with comps. and reasons and explanations. As part of my listing process, I let the sellers know that if they want to hire a licensed appraiser to appraise the home, I will reimburse them that cost at closing from my commission.

Now I'm sure some of you know my feeling on the appraisal process, but having a house previously appraised makes it much easier once the bank appraiser comes in. Sort of the herd mentality, also it makes it easier during negotiations. "liscensed bank appraisal" sounds very official.

I guess finally I have gotten to the point of this post. Recently I have has sellers agree with me on the price I told them, make it seem as if they are ready to list, and then drop off the face of the earth.

I had one guy who called me to list his property. He had had it on the market for a year prior, with a few bites, but nothing real. I told him that I thought it was priced to high, lets drop it twenty percent, which is still high, considering the market, but we could guage the response. He agreed, I sent him the paperwork, and I never heard from him again. Voicemails went unanswered. Then last week I see it listed on the mls for twelve percent higher then it was originally for. Sorry I did not realize we were in a real estate boom.

I wish him luck. I just feel that agents should not be rewarded for over pricing listings, and then once a realtionship with the seller has been establsihed, massage a reduction. Believe me I have been guilty of taking over priced listings, and all you end up with is unhappy sellers.

I suppose for some it is easier to be passive, and list with a yes ma'am realtor. That way they can hold onto the dream of the big payday for a little longer, which in some cases may be comforting. All I can say to them is good luck.

Olympia Hotel Renovation

2009-05-19T11:48:00.000-04:00

It appears as though the renovation on the old Olympia Hotel has slowed for a bit. They have all the new windows in, but the flurry of activity that began the endeavor has subsided a bit.

Perhaps I'm just anxious to see it finished. It really is a grand old building, and it deserves to stand proudly restored over the town. There is rumours of a dinner train that will take passengers from Port Jervis and back while enjoying dinner and drinks. I think that is a great idea, and hope it gets off the ground.

I am wary though. It seems that every year or so, there is some big "happening" in Sullivan County that will put us on the map, and enable us to rival the Berkshires, or the Hampton's. Something that will turn the tide of haphazard dilapidation that seems to dot our landscape.

Now this is on a smaller scale than Cappelli or six giant Indian casinos, or any other scheme that has been bandied about, but it some ways I think it may be more effective in maximizing this areas draw.

I know this has been discussed on other forums, but part of the Sullivan County appeal, is that it is not the Hampton's. A middle class "blue collar" (whatever that term really means) family can afford to buy a second home here. I was just out two weeks ago with a family where the father is a NYC fireman, and last year I sold a little place to a teacher and a toll collector. Sullivan still is affordable enough so that if one saves, a second home is doable.

I seem to have gotten of target, but I guess my point is that if the Olympia is successful, I think that it will enhance the Sullivan experience, and show what this area has been for over a hundred years. A playground for the not so rich and famous. What better way to illustrate that then with a restored old hotel and train station?

Below is an old picture of Callicoon in the early 1900's the Olympia is on the right. I also included the original link to the Democrat article

http://www.sc-democrat.com/news/001January/20/olympia.htm

Bald Eagle Nest in Narrowsburg

2009-05-13T12:44:00.000-04:00

On Sunday my wife and I ate at the Main Street Cafe in Narrowsburg, one of our favorite spots. If you haven't gone, I really recommend it. Anyway, when we were leaving, we stopped for a minute at the observation deck next door that looks out onto Narrowsburg Eddy. I spotted a bald eagle way off in the pines across the eddy. Of course I didn't have my camera, so I couldn't take a picture, but through that binocular thingy that they have set up there, you could see there was actually two.

Well I went back this morning, and I managed to get this picture. I believe they are making a nest. The tree they are building it in is the big pine straight across from the observation deck. It is really too far to take a good picture, but I drove down a little closer and managed this shot. I believe it is the male.

Next time you are in Narrowsburg, check it out. Through the binoculars you get a pretty good look, and they really are spectacular creatures.

Amendment of Post Below

2009-05-12T11:34:00.000-04:00

I feel I must update my rather harsh post below. The appraiser in question called me, and we spoke at length. He agrees with me that the house was priced well, but he said he just couldn't find comps to support it.

We went back and forth a bit, and I dug up a comparison that was not on the mls., which he used, and lo and behold, the $4,000 gap was bridged, and all is well in real estate land.

I am still convinced that the comparison format to define value is flawed. How can a property ever appreciate if it is only compared to recent sales? It is sort of the chicken or the egg scenario, but there must be a price jump somewhere, to start the ball rolling. Does it begin with someone willing to pay cash to bridge a gap? Then once that property joins the comparison pool, the next buyer doesn't have to come up with as much cash.

And in the reverse, what we are seeing now is the foreclosures dragging down the comp. pool, and deflating value.

Who knows...What I do know is that this time it worked out, but I'm sure I will be in this predicament again. It is just very important to get all parties (broker, appraiser and lender) all on the same page, then at least there is a possibility to work it out.

Appraisal Gaps...A Rant, and Perhaps some Insight

2009-05-05T09:37:00.000-04:00

Once again I have an appraisal gap on one of the deals I am involved in. It is a $4,000 difference. I have had a few of these before, but this is the first since the inception of my blog, so now I can rant here, instead of pacing and muttering in my office.

An appraiser is hired by the lender to determine "market value", and to ensure that the collateral is equal to the loan. However, in my opinion, the appraisal process is flawed, and very often the appraiser is clueless, for lack of a better term

The definition of "market value" is: "the estimated amount for which a property should exchange on the date of valuation between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm’s-length transaction after proper marketing wherein the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently, and without compulsion."

Now to me that means that "market value" has been determined before the appraiser ever sets foot on the property. A competent real estate broker (i.e. myself) has already evaluated the home, set an estimated sale price, produced a willing buyer, and procured an offer. The value of the property becomes what someone is willing to pay for it.

Now some will argue that it could be a nutcase who is willing to pay much more than the home is worth, so that is where the appraiser comes in, and I agree, but when the appraisal comes in less than 2% below the asking price, are you serious? Can you really believe that the appraisal process is that specific? Of course not, it is a joke.

The first thing the appraisal company asks for is a signed copy of the contracts. So they know the price before they ever look at the house. To me that is ridiculous. If you are so confident in your ability to determine fair value, go in blind. Give me a real opinion, not one carefully crafted around a pre-determined number.

So over $4,000 the deal comes to a screeching halt--1.82% In this unstable market, some would argue that home values could change that much in a few weeks. But rigid banks, and clueless appraisers, cannot see the big picture. It is frustrating.

Now let me say that I have worked with some good appraisers, who get it. And believe me an appraiser who gets it would never turn in an appraisal this close to the price.

It reminds of the type of people who say they can only have Grey Goose in their vodka tonics, and yet in a blind taste test, you know that they will not tell the difference between that and Smirnoff. Self importance to me is one of the most distasteful characteristics, and an appraisal, at 1.82% below ask, screams of self importance.

All right, I feel a little better...

The Land Crave

2009-04-28T10:18:00.000-04:00

As a reluctant salesman I try to consider my self more of a novice therapist. As a matter of fact, I always considered the term salesman to be somewhat derogatory and the occupation rather derisive. It evokes images of door to door encyclopedia peddlers with felt hats and slumped shoulders. Or even worse fast talking car dealers, teetering on the edge of morality.

I have met the hard sell real estate salesman, and frankly I can't stand those types. If you had to come up with a list of noble professions, I'm sure you would pick doctor, teacher, foster home worker, caregiver, etc. Real estate agent would be pretty far down on the list. And rightly so. There are much more noble professions than mine, but every once in a while I feel like I am really helping someone fulfill a dream.

This has happened a few times with land buyers. I was out with a couple last week. He is looking for land, at least twenty acres, and the only real requirement for him for the house is that it has a roof and four walls. She is a little bit more picky on the house, but not much.

Getting him out in the woods was like taking a kid to Disneyland. Owning space to roam. I think for some it is a primal need. I showed him four properties, and he loved every one.

I have had three or four such buyers over my real estate career. They are a joy to work with, not because they are easy buyers, some can be hesitant, but because there is a certain lack of suspicion and a real genuineness. They are acting on a dream.

Invariably it seems to come from a childhood memory. Everyone, when telling me what they are looking for, has a control, whether it be a big parcel that their grandparents owned that they used to roam as kids, or a summer camp they would attend. There was something that fostered this dream to own land.

But just watching this man this weekend, I realized that he has thought and planned and worked hard for this. This is his dream, and I am helping him achieve it. Noble? Not open heart surgery with a ball point pen noble, but it gives me a feeling of satisfaction that I think we all need.

Foreclosures

2009-04-21T09:22:00.000-04:00

As the media continues to spell doom to the entire housing market, I am getting more calls from second home buyers looking for foreclosures. Invariably even if the prospective buyer doesn't begin with that topic, as we chat about what they are looking for, the subject always comes up.

It seems that some have this vision of finding the deal of a lifetime, and snatching up a wonderful little country getaway for a fraction of the cost.

Its like the urban myth of the "friend" who is subletting their grandmothers duplex in Chelsea, and paying only $600 a month. When I lived in Manhattan, everyone sort of knew somebody like that, but not really firsthand but they were spoken about with awe and reverence, and a bit of jealousy.

The problem with the foreclosure market in Sullivan County, is that that side of the housing market is very different than what most of the people I deal with are looking for. I attached a link to a typical foreclosed property here. Believe me this type of house is a dime a dozen.

Click Here

Most are in the south eastern part of the county, around Monticello, Fallsburgh area. Like the rest of the country, they are mostly primary homes, taken over by the bank after the owners have stopped paying. The houses are often in disrepair, and have been on the market at various prices throughout the foreclosure process. Contrary to what some might think, a home typically goes into foreclosure only when every other avenue has been tried. Banks do not like to lose money, and will not give a house away.

Now I am sure that there are some very nice second home style properties out there right now, where the owner is in a tough financial situation, but being upside down, or even attempting a short sale, does not automatically turn a deal into a steal.

I just heard of a house that is going to auction this week. It had been on the market for almost two years, the price dropping to 70% less than what was originally asked. The problem is that it is in a flood plain, with major water damage, and even at these low prices, buyers do not want to deal with that headache. I am curious to see what it sells for, but like anything else in life, if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is.

Froelich Road Houses

2009-04-20T10:13:00.000-04:00

I posted last month about the three houses on the hill above Callicoon. Well the lower house finally closed last week. Price was $250,00o. Originally listed at $399,000--it is a nice house with some good views. I attached the picture below. The only downside is the driveway, which is quite steep. But I suppose at that price it still becomes worth it.

The upper house, however just came back as active on the mls. I am not sure why the deal fell through, but after sitting with signed contracts for almost two months, something happened to kill the deal.

I attached pictures below. This property has the driveway to contend with as well. But it is a nice big house, and the views are the best of any house on the market in the county. Hands down. It is listed at $329,000. Originally it was close to six..

I really believe that this house is one of the best deals on the market right now in this county. Any offer in the mid to high two's would probably get accepted. ( I do not know for sure, as I am not the listing agent.) But browse some listings in that price range. They don't even begin to compare.

Now couple that with a very low interest rate. Is this Apple stock pre ipod/iphone? Not quite, but three years from now, this house will not be worth less than $260,000. And interest rates will be higher.

If anyone is interested in viewing this home give me a shout.

The Gaffken-Barriger fund wins first round

2009-04-02T12:36:00.000-04:00

Interesting article in the River Reporter about the latest on Barriger. The link is below.

For those of you who aren't familiar with Gaffken-Barriger, they are a private investment company here in Sullivan County, that specialized in higher risk loans, with a high interest rate.

Well, when the market began to tank, numerous mortgagers defaulted, including a Florida based company, which had borrowed over ten million.

Those who had invested in the fund are insisting that they were "guaranteed" an eight percent return, and are quite upset, that not only are they not getting a return, the principle is gone as well. An investigation continues, but no criminal charges have been filed, and from what I hear, they are not expected.

It is rather sad. I met with an older couple last month, who must sell their house and move in with their daughter because they invested their life savings with the fund.

But I suppose this is a prime example of caveat emptor. With all the fast talking that I'm sure went on to convince people to invest, there must have been some fine print somewhere that this was a possibility. This was no Ponzi scheme, although I'm sure that is little solace for those who have lost their shirts.

http://www.riverreporter.com/issues/09-04-02/head2-invest.html

Interesting Listing

2009-03-26T12:36:00.000-04:00

Once again my blogging has lagged. And once again it is because I'm busy. This past weekend I was out showing both days. Buyers are returning, as the air is warmer, and the prices and interest rates are lower.

The market has definitely changed, and I think for the better. I remember the days when I used to cringe when I would get calls for prospective buyers looking in the 150 to 200 range, and anything lower was really crap. I remember early last spring (march '08) I showed fifteen houses to a guy in that mid $150,000's range all around the county. He wasn't looking for anything extravagant. I believe it was three bedrooms, two bath with a little charm and privacy. Some of the things we looked at were absurd. It got to the point where showing was no longer any fun, and at times it felt like a real waste of time.

I believe the people who drive the real estate market in this county, are a gen x subdued version of the yuppie. (although if you call them that, they would be somewhat indignant) At any rate, our county is very dependant on that particular city-folk weekender. Not ultra-rich, but rather one where a second home is a big purchase, and one in which serious sacrifices must be made to make that dream a reality.

Those folks began to get priced out of the market, and that is when our version of the real estate bubble burst.

But now those people are able to look again, and see things in their price range that they like. The reason this all came about is because I was speaking to a customer about a particular property he likes.

This property is in Cochecton. It is a 1900 farmhouse on 28 acres, with the original barn, and all the original floors and walls. (The dreaded 70's paneling did not manage to infestate this one.) It has its normal farmhouse drawbacks, one bath, funny shaped kitchen, a lot of paint and elbow grease will be needed. I attached a few pics below, courtesy of Malek.

Current price is $248,000. This is one of those properties with good bones--actually great bones. The acreage does have the millennium pipeline cutting through a portion, but it is somewhat flat and has a big stream.

If you take this property, and refinish the farmhouse to its glory, and do it slowly as a project while you come up on weekends, what will this property be worth in lets say ten years, if the market rebounds.

I know at the height of the boom, a redone property like this was selling for mid sixes. You couple this with a low 4.5% interest rate, and all of the sudden it makes sense to buy it, not only as a labor of love, but as an investment. The naysayers will moan about how we are not at the bottom, and it is much to risky, but they also would have told you not to buy stock when the market was at 6,700, almost 1,000 points ago.

And in ten years when the interest rate is 8.6 and our median price here is up 48%, we may look back and say. Shoulda bought at the bottom.

Its gonna be fun to read some of the e-mails I get on this one...

My New Listing

2009-03-18T13:02:00.000-04:00

First off the house I wrote about in my previous post sold for $450,000. Not bad I was guessing less. I am sure the new owners are going to love it. It really is a special property.

I think in this down market, where every buyer seems fixated on value, and finding that elusive bargain we have lost sight a little bit on why people buy second homes in this county. I think this concept has been touched on in other blogs, but at the risk of sounding like the department of the redundancy department, I would like to put my own spin on it.

People buy here for a lifestyle--a getaway--for rest and peace of mind. That is why the real estate department varies so tremendously here. A suburban ranch in Monticello will be priced very differently than a small quaint farmhouse on a quiet road, although both may have similar square footage, and be only a few miles from each other.

With that being said, I have a new listing in Black Forest Colony, which is a private preserve/development in Lumberland. There is over 1,100 acres set aside for the residents to use--hike, hunt fish atv, whatever. This particular property is five acres with a great year round stream, a private wooden bridge is the only way to get to it. It is deep in the woods. The house itself is more of a cabin. I attached pictures below. It was built in the fifties, and as a lot of charm. All original woodwork, etc.

You can see more pictures on my website. Now you may think I am pumping this property because it is my listing, and that is true, but I think it also brings up an important issue on value. We decided to list this property at $245,000. It has less than 1,000 square feet. Some will probably look at this listing at shake their heads, and murmur something about overpriced in a market such as this.

But there is no other listing in Sullivan County that is similar. It has what very few properties have. Complete seclusion, access to land for recreation, and some real authenticity.

In my opinion it is a simple case of supply and demand. That is why we decided to price it the way we did. Special properties will carry inherit value despite fluctuations in the market, because the appeal will always be there.

At rate shoot me an e-mail if you agree, or if you think I am way off base.

Another 400K Plus House in Contract

2009-03-07T11:51:00.000-05:00

Another favorite house of mine just went into "contract signed" status on the MLS. This house

is an Alpine log home on ten acres in Lumberland. I attached some pictures below.

It has three bedrooms two baths, a beautiful field stone fireplace, it is made with 18' logs. Completely secluded on ten acres, which adjoins state land.

This house has that rare feeling, where you just want to take a deep breath and relax when you step out onto the deck. The view of high point New Jersey is really nice, (in fact you can see three states from the deck)

The seller bought this house in early 2006 for $625,000. About a year and a half later, he put it back on the market. (I believe it was because of a job relocation) Initially it was put back on for $759,000. And why not? it was the height of the boom, and this really is a special property.

Well the property sat. Perhaps the cool off had finally started, and buyers just felt it was too much. Or maybe it was into that upper bracket where there is fewer buyers. At any rate, despite numerous showings, it sat.

There was a series of price drops, and a switch of listing agencies. The last list price was $499,000, and it sat at that price throughout the winter. I showed it a few times, and had an interested party, but they felt the market was too unstable, and decided to play the wait and see game.

But then Friday it went into contract signed. A quick e-mail to the listing agent indicated that it is all but a done deal, money is transferred, and it will close in a few days. I am very curious to see what the final price was. I am guessing low fours, but would not be surprised if it is in the three's. I will be sure to post when I know.

This is a situation where the current seller bought with cash back in '06 so he didn't have to worry about being "upside down". He took the 100k plus loss.

I believe that as reality sets in, we will see more and more of these type of deals. Real estate is still moving, but we are still searching--not so much for a bottom but a range--a place where we can gauge market value.

At least it is better than a dead standstill.

Interesting Article on Gas Drilling

2009-03-03T13:22:00.000-05:00

Steve McConnel wrote an interesting article on gas drilling in Wayne County. I included the link below.

I think the most interesting thing (besides the obvious lack of permits coming in) is the fact that Stone Energy Corp. spends well over a million dollars in leases, brings in all the equipment and man power to drill, yet fails to apply for a permit from the DRBC to drill. I would love to have heard the conversation with the guilty party when the head honchos at that company found out that the drilling had been stopped. That's a pretty big oops.

I guess we will wait and see what happens. Has the bad economy and cheaper gas prices really squelched the Sullivan County natural gas rush? I for one hope so.

http://www.wayneindependent.com/news/x1959833495/Permitting-agencies-not-flooded-with-gas-well-requests

Haven't posted in awhile, because I've been busy.

2009-02-25T12:13:00.000-05:00

It has been a week since my last blog post, which I suppose would make the real estate "experts" purse their lips and shake their heads in disapproval, but I have a good excuse. I've been busy.

Real estate busy. I was double booked all weekend, and had listing appointments the last two days. Two of my showings turned into offers, one has been accepted, and the other...fingers crossed...looks like it will be accepted as well.

Now they aren't Chapin lakefronts that I sold. One is a $130,000 house, the other is a $90,000 piece of land, (which puts me squarely in the new Sullivian median) but to borrow a phrase from the youth of America, I am still stoked.

February numbers will be out soon, and I think they will be as putrid as we have seen. Volume of closed homes in Feb. will be very low. I think that we are finally seeing post Lehman numbers, and the landscape, even to the most optimistic looks bleak. But as we all know, there is a lag between getting an accepted offer, and the closing, when the sale shows up on the stat sheet. So the bleakness we are seeing is really from the frozen deer in the headlights period at the end of '08 where people did nothing for a few months.

But for now, I have inspections to go to, people to call back, and listings to upload. Busy feels good.

The Stay at Home Couple

2009-02-18T18:38:00.001-05:00

It was forecasted to be one to three inches, which I suppose is what we got. I was on my way back from looking at a new listing in Livingston Manor, when the sky got really dark and it started coming down hard. I took a snapshot of the barn at Faraway Farm, just outside of Callicoon Center.

I was previewing a house for a couple who I think fits into a new demographic in our society. I will call them the "stay at home couple." They are simply a double income family, where both adults work from home. This couple is the second one that I have come in contact with this month.

In this case, it is a gay couple who currently rent in Brooklyn. The one guy has run an internet based business from home for years. His partner commuted into the city in a more traditional job, but as technology became more advanced, he started being able to spend more of his time working from home also. He commented to me, that he will still have to meet clients once or twice a week in Manhattan, but he feels a commute to the city once or twice a week is doable, where every day is just too far. They both have roots in the Metro area, but the job flexibility allows them to have a primary home ( and all the benefits that come with that) here in Sullivan County.

I believe as technology continues to advance, we will see more of these stay at home couples. In the nineties the term dinks (double income no kids) came into being. (of which I am still a member.) I suppose that will be to amended to wah dinks. Work at home double income no kids.

Main Street Cafe in Narrowsburg

2009-02-15T14:58:00.000-05:00

I suppose an upside to the slow down in the economy affords me a rare Sunday off. Today my wife and I ate breakfast at the Main Street Cafe. I forgot to bring my camera, and upon searching for a picture on google, the one above is the only one I could find. I apologize to the original owner if there is a copyright infringement, but it is a great picture of the outside deck.

The place was busy at 10:30, almost full. We got a table by the window, in the sun, it was a pleasant atmosphere from the beginning. It is small, probably about ten tables inside, and a bar that seats five or six. I would guess there was about twenty five diners, which is just about capacity.

The food was delicious, our waitress friendly, and although there was a wait for the food, it didn't bother me. We sat, and people watched, and read the paper. It reminded me of a few places I used to go too when I lived in Hell's Kitchen. The whole restaurant has that cozy tin ceiling feel. It would have fit right in on 10th Ave. (although the prices are definitely Sullivan County)

I know many of my customers come here to run away from people, but sometimes it feels good to be around folks, and after this long dreary winter, It felt good to be among humanity. I would recommend checking this place out, especially this summer when they get the deck open.

Barriger Houses in Contract in Callicoon

2009-02-12T16:03:00.000-05:00

I just found out today that the three houses up on the hill on Forelich Drive over-looking Callicoon, are all in contract. I am surprised given the state of the economy, but am also buoyed by the news. People are still buying second homes in Sullivan County.

All three were built at the height of the boom. The entrepreneurial contractor backed by Barriger, bit off a little more than he could chew, and before the houses were finished he had defaulted. Barriger foreclosed, and had the first two finished and the last was getting close. But then they had there own financial issues. Essentially the houses were foreclosed on twice before anyone ever put a piece of furniture in them.

The lower house sits on 18 acres, however the acres are a steep hill. It is a four bedroom 2 bath home with board and baton siding. It has a nice view, but it is not as nice a view as the houses further up the hill. Below are pictures of the first house.

This house was listed for $299,000 (originally when it was first on the market, the price tag was $425,000.) I am not sure what the accepted offer is, but I am curious to find out.

House #2 is the biggest of the houses. It is 3,600 sq feet. It has a big covered porch looking out over the view, and the view is one of the best you'll get in this county. (pics below.) Original tag was $599,000. When it went into contract it was at $425,000. Again curious to see what the accepted offer was.

House number three had the most issues, but has the best view. The driveway is very steep, and was washed out when I was up there. Also it was still not finished. It is smaller than the others, but the master bedroom views are really breathtaking. Original price was $599,000 finished. Last price was $329,000. I am guessing with the work that needed to be done, this house went for low to mid two's. Again I will be curious to the final price.

It goes back to my theory that there still are buyers out there. They just need to know that they are getting a bargain before they will take the leap. I guess a house that was on the market for $200,000 more last year constitutes a bargain to some. Congrats to the soon to be new owners, and welcome to our town.

So I too will blog...

2009-01-29T09:15:00.000-05:00

Although by doing this I feel a bit like a follower, or at the very least certainly not a trend setter, I have decided to start a blog. Most of the real estate literature urges one to have a blog on your websites, citing much higher traffic draw. Will it work in turning me into a real estate mogul? One can dream I suppose.

Being almost forty, the word itself bothers me (although much less than when I first heard it). Blog...it sounds like something out of a Lewis Carrol poem. But after hearing it a bit it kind of begins to sound normal. I suppose you get used to it. Blog, pod casts, texting, lmao--whatever it is in this day and age, we just have to roll with it I suppose...

So for my first relevant topic, I am going to discuss taxes. Real estate taxes in Sullivan County have always been a bone of contention with homeowners, both primary and second. At times the system can seem completely arbitrary, and accessors so far off base that it makes you scratch your head. It seems they try to make it seem more complex than it actually is, so that owners get confused, and assume that the accessor knows what he is doing, and give up.

1) My first piece of advice is never take what the accessor is saying as gospel. Call him or her and ask for an appointment to go see them. Most are very cordial (which does not mean they will necessarily adjust your assessment) but at least you will get an explanation as to why you are taxed the way you are.

2) Arm yourself with information. With technology at your fingertips these days, it is much easier to find out what you neighbor is paying. Get comparables, which is what the assessment system is based on. I offer free c.m.a.'s (comparative market analysis) for anyone who requests them. Just shoot me an e-mail.

3) Go to Grievance day. Most townships have them in May. Again e-mail me and I can get you the exact day for your township. It can't hurt. Local legend says that just for going to grievance day, the judge will take off ten percent.

4) If you are looking to buy, make sure the tax info you are given is current. Have your agent verify.

Recently I have had people who only wanted to look in Wayne County P.A. because of the taxes. Now there are some very nice country homes over the river, but P.A. taxes are starting to creep up.