Cool Thunderstorm

Took a few shots of a pretty neat storm that went through Callicoon a few days ago. Left behind a rainbow. See, all of you who say I dwell on the negative--life really is rainbows and butterflys.

New historic lows on mortgage rates. And yet the market remains slow. National news just reported one in every eighty-seven homes has received a foreclosure notice. And one in every four homes owes more on the mortgage than the home is worth.

However if you are the few lucky ones who have some capital, now is the time. It may stay this low for a little bit, but it can't forever, and just like there are some nights that I lie awake thinking about how I sold my Apple stock at 18$ a share (pre Ipod, Iphone I friggin everything), there will be quite a few who will say shoulda, woulda, coulda.

There are five homes scattered about Sullivan County that I think are incredibly deals. It amazes me each week they are still on the market.

Once again...when do the cliff divers of Acapulco jump? When they water or when they see rocks? Well the water is coming in.

The "Seasoned" Seller

One of the things that unsuccessful sellers like to do, after their listing agreement has expired, is switch brokerages. It seems like a rational action. After all if you request a service that is not met, in most other instances in life, you will go elsewhere in an attempt to meet your needs.

I think working for Re/Max, I get more than my share of the second try home sellers. Re/Max's national sales campaign really gets the name out there, and often after a local agency has failed to sell the home, the sellers say to themselves, "Lets go with a big name, and see what happens."

Invariable there are complaints about the agent. He/she was hard to get a hold of, the advertising promises were not met, feedback was lacking. Mostly they feel the agent did not work hard enough, and they-- after a flurry of early activity felt abandoned.

The bad news about being the second lister, is there is always challenges to the property. Even the laziest listing agents put the property on the multiple listing service, and there are a bunch of aggressive agents trolling for good listings, so if one comes along priced right, with the right appeal, it will sell, regardless who lists it.

However, the good news, is they have already been seasoned. They do not have the eager, my-house-will-sell-in-week, enthusiasm that brand new listers have despite what you tell them. They have had people clomp through the house, say thank you, and never see them again. They have had no-shows, and buyers turn around in the driveway--perhaps even an offer that fell through for whatever reason.

And of course price. They are much more willing to come down on the price. Just like a buyer who starts out with a vision of a little perfect place with a "crystal blue Italian stream" a huge stainless steel kitchen, and a Lancaster County barn, for under 150K,  seasoned sellers begin to realize that they will not hit the mother lode when they sell, and with solid comps, and a little reality massage,  they are much more willing to listen

Even so, here in Sullivan County a good property priced right. (Not under-priced, my job as a selling agent is to get the buyer as much as possible.) can and will often sit for a while before a buyer comes along.

I went on a listing appointment yesterday, in which the owners had had it listed a few times before, even through the boom, but they were always a little above market value. They are at about 40% less than the highest asking price, which I think is still a little high, but they owe nothing on the house, and do not need to sell. Anyway in the course of the appointment, the owner assured me that while he is gone during the winter, he has a plow guy lined up. Its July, talk about a seasoned seller with low expectations.

I think this "seasoning" of both buyers and sellers is what is going to close the divide, and get this sluggish market moving a bit again. Unfortunately like a fine wine, time is the only way for this to occur. I guess the fall numbers will tell us a bit more if there has been any sort of pick up this summer.

His "Real" Job

I bring up that I am a real estate broker to as many people as I can during random conversations. Well I was waiting on line at the grocery store, and struck up a conversation with the guy in front of me. When it came around to what I did for a living, he said, "Oh do you know so and so?" I said I had heard of him, perhaps seen his listing(s). He says, yeah he sells real estate too, well his real job is...



His "real" job? The median price of a home in Sullivan County right now is down quite a bit, I believe it is around $150,000. The average real estate commission is six percent. So an average commission is nine thousand dollars. Attorneys who sue people for a living would have to settle a forty thousand dollar law suit to collect that same amount of money. A dentist would have to do extensive work, implants or intricate bridgework, to charge that. Even though we have insurance, I saw the hospital bill, my wife's doctor's fee was around that for her cesarean. We could go on and on.

And yet, with real estate, people are ok with a part time, minimally educated agent who knows little about the market, and less about how to make a deal work. It continues to boggle my mind. How many times have you heard, "Oh cousin Jack has his license, so we listed the house with him."

I do think that obtaining a real estate license is too easy, so it is partially the state's fault, but sellers need to be smarter, and do a little legwork. Cousin Jack will cost you a lot of money.

I guess this post is turning into another complain-fest, but the reason I bring it up, is anytime I have to deal with these weekend warrior agents, it drives me crazy, because it makes my job so much harder. One of my shortcomings is that I do not suffer fools gladly. I know..attract more flies with honey and all that crap, but I have a real hard time being patient and hand holding. These are the agents who over show a house, who must be present for all showings, who call incessantly for feedback, who get indignant if your buyer does not see the "gem" of a house they same way they do.

A buyer may not know for sure he is going to buy a house right away, but on a house he doesn't like, he knows right away. There is no reason to be polite, and follow the listing agent around and oohh and aahh over closet space etc., and to take that personal if I cut a showing short? Well sorry.

I've had it happen to me, and the very next person who looked at the house bought it. I didn't design the house. Doesn't hurt my feelings.

I guess I can just make this a word to the wise. Hire a professional full-time agent with experience. Anytime I do a referral, I call the office, and ask for the top producing agent. That way you are getting the best.

HAMP, HAFA, and other bits and pieces

Just wanted to touch on the short sale modification laws that Obama and crew are pushing through. (Which is I think in theory is great.) Once again though big banks and their Washington constituents have enough of a strangle hold to make these laws and programs weak and basically ineffectual.

To be on the bank's side for a minute, you can't really blame them, although the lending practices in some cases were predatory, they did lend someone money, and it is really only fair that as much of that money as possible be returned.

Short answer...HAMP is a program designed to help homeowners who are behind, and under water, re modify their loan, (in some cases with debt forgiveness, but much more rarely than the wording would imply.) However I have heard of it happening, and it has helped people stay in their homes. It is not a simple process though, and many times as it drags on, and the mortgage is not being paid, (which is a pre-requisite, paying your mortgage can get you booted from the program.) It pulls the property dangerously close to foreclosure.

Now what HAFA has tried to do, is simple streamline a snarled short sale process, and force banks to respond more like professionals, and less like a loan shark from Canarsie. I think in some ways it has done that. If you have followed the rules, and attempted to re modify, your existing loan, and have been unable to do so, HAFA can work in getting your home short sold.

One of the issues, besides the wishy-washy wording, which keeps the banks able to do pretty much whatever they want, is the fact that while in HAMP, you are unable to list your home and try to sell it. So in many cases, homes that may have been able to be short sold, were pulled off the market, while banks in the glacier pace they all seem to move in, attempted to change mortgages so someone now struggling, could stay in their home.

The problem seems to be, that if it is a situation, like a lost job, a loan modification won't help. You can't get water from a stone, but again, banks seem to lack this common sense, and force a mortgagor to go this whole process, before relenting to the short sale.

And in their unending quest on Capitol Hill to help, they unwittingly created a whole new bunch of piranhas.

The wording in the HAFA guidelines states that agent commissions are protected up to six percent of the transaction unless the servicer chooses to retain “a vendor to assist the listing broker with the sale” and if a vendor is retained, “this vendor must be paid from the commission.”

Well now every where you look, there are these "short sale vendor companies."

Notice how the press releases proclaim these companies are creating these divisions to help the servicers comply with HAFA. I guess they didn’t read that it was supposed be the agents they were assisting. I hope that they do make the short sale process easier, but the drafters of the HAFA program (with recommendations from the servicers) shouldn’t have tried to be cute with their wording in HAFA by guaranteeing a 6% commission unless a vendor is hired to assist the broker.

We'll see, all three of my short sales started before these laws went into effect, so I have not had the pleasure of dealing with a short sale vendor. But I will gladly give a percent away if they are doing all the HUD, bank paperwork, hardship letter, financial statement crap, and have an in with a negotiator.

I will list, show, market and sell. That is what I get paid to do. I just have a feeling that these "companies" are going to know very little about how to make this process smoother, and it will turn out to be another annoying step in an already very convoluted process.

http://www.realtor.org/government_affairs/short_sales_hafa

Real Estate Intervention

Many of today's sellers need a reality check on pricing we all know this, and there has been this sort of eye rolling here-we-go-again attitude among selling agents when they go on listings. However it is a very difficult thing to tell a home owner his biggest investment is not worth what he thinks it is.

Mike Aubrey--who I had the opportunity to speak to--he gave me a very nice referral, yet another perk of being with a global company like Re/Max-- provides a reality check to one "lucky" homeowner each week on HGTV's "Real Estate Intervention."

The popular TV show follows sellers who are either thinking of listing their property or have had their homes on the market without a successful sale. Aubrey, a Hall of Fame and Chairman's Club member with RE/MAX Metropolitan Realty in North Potomac, Md., takes sellers through two comparables – a home that recently sold and one that's still on the market – to show them how their property stacks up to the competition. Then he sits them down for "the talk," which entails a rundown of the numbers and his suggestion for pricing.

Most of the time, the truth hurts.

"Sellers can get extremely upset or offended when I tell them my opinion on what their house is worth given the market conditions," says Aubrey, who remains remarkably patient with difficult sellers in several of the episodes (much more than I would). "Part of this business is telling people things they don't want to hear, but you can't get emotional about it. You have to control the situation and trust your work and the numbers. Having their best interest at heart means being honest."

Aubrey's straight-talking and frank manner has made the show a fan favorite; he gets thousands of letters and e-mails from agents and Broker/Owners who say they watch the show religiously. Some even make it required viewing during sales meetings. After speaking with him, and seeing a few episodes, I took a deep breath, and made a few uncomfortable phone calls. The one thing that he said to me that stuck, is "trust your numbers." Now here in rural Sullivan County, finding valid solid comps can be more challenging. But it is doable.

While it's not much different from what he does with his clients everyday, Aubrey says that the opportunity to show sellers a recently sold comp offers a unique angle to the discussion – something he wouldn't normally get to show his actual clients.

Aubrey got the gig after appearing in a few episodes of HGTV's "Get It Sold" and "House Hunters." But he doesn't consider himself a TV star by any stretch.

"I'm a guy who sells real estate that happens to be on TV – and not the other way around," says Aubrey, who works full-time with his team serving buyers and sellers in the Washington D.C. metro area. "I originally declined the offer to do this show because the filming would've interfered with my business, but they came back to me and offered me a shooting schedule I could live with.

"It's a lot of fun, but it's hard work; I put in 95-hour workweeks between selling homes and taping."

Having his own real estate show has opened up countless avenues for Aubrey to promote his business. He has appeared on the Today show, which invited him back on July 11 (7 a.m.-9 a.m. ET) to discuss online real estate resources for buyers.

Aubrey's real estate anecdotes have been included in The Washington Post and The New York Times, and he has appeared on news commentary programming and talk shows such as "Fox & Friends," and "Rachel Ray."

"One of the great things about doing 'Real Estate Intervention' is that I get to showcase the great work real estate agents are doing across country – especially right now," Aubrey says. "It's a big responsibility to be in a venue where I'm essentially representing all Realtors. So I make sure to do my homework and do the profession proud."

Lakefront listing

My Re/Max software has a new "imbed" feature for the virtual tour, so I figured I would try it out here. I know...shameless self promotion of my own listings, which I swore this blog would not be about. Still it is pretty cool that I can do this. $289,000 for a five acre brand new house with deeded rights to a big private motorboat lake is a good deal.$289,000 click here

Well the imbed did not work right. It did not fit in the picture, so I guess I still have to figure this HTML thing out. But rather than confuse my vast readership, and delete this post altogether, I created it as a link.

Rock Snot

I went out this past weekend with a few of my friends, who are all a bit more outdoorsy than I, and a few of the fisherman in the group were complaining about the Delaware and the surrounding tributaries. It hasn't really been covered by the "major" news outlets up here, but after talking with them, and doing some research I found out a bit more.



Didymosphenia geminate, or "rock snot" as is had been nicknamed, is an invasive freshwater diatom (microscopic alga). Didymo can form extensive “blooms” on the bottoms of rocky river beds, essentially smothering aquatic life forms such as macroinvertebrates (aquatic insects), native algae, and other organisms. Didymo uses stalks to attach to rocks and plants in a river system. The diatom actually creates these stalks, which can form masses 3 inches to 5 inches thick on the river bottom, and trail for lengths of 2 feet to 3 feet in the current. It is actually the stalks that are more problematic than the alga. The alga will eventually die off and decompose, while these stalks tend to persist for several months on the river bottom.



It is not native to NY. It started showing up around 2006-07, and has been getting steadily worse. I guess no one is sure exactly where it is originally native too, although it has been in New Zealand for decades. It can easily stick to waders, boat and canoes, even fishing lures. Only a few of these alga need to be transferred to start a new colony.



The problem is the invasivness, it kills all the small insects that the fish feed on, so it is a real threat to the river and stream's fish population. Apparently there has already been documented declines. And a large part of our tourism depends on the weekend, and vacation angler. I went and checked it out myself in Hankins. For a lack of a better term, its gross.



From what I can gather, there isn't really a whole lot than can be done, it blooms in the spring, pretty much covers everything, and then dies off in the July/Aug. months, only leaving behind the stalks. I guess dryer springs, which make the water levels lower make the blooms more prevalent.

At any rate, is is something to keep a close eye on. the Delaware's crystal clear water, and polished rocky bottom is what makes that river so attractive. Rock snot is anything but attractive.

Traffic

Over the past month, I have been in contact with a dozen or so buyers of mine who have bought from me over the years. Most are in full summer swing, and are piling in the car as early as possible on Fridays, and not heading back until it is starting to get dark on Sunday. (There are a handful who have less traditional schedules, but the majority are Mon thru Fri.)

One of the many differences between the Hampton's and SC, besides its size, is there are a variety of ways to get here. But sort of like the LIE, we have Route 17, which is really the main artery to most of our region.

Well I'm sure some of you have noticed, but starting at about exit 118 (if you are heading east), until below Middletown, major construction has dropped 17 down to one narrow lane in both directions, and from the look of the progress (or lack thereof) this is something that will continue throughout our summer season.

I had one couple tell me on Memorial Day Monday, it took them six hours to get from Bethel to Queens. Ugh.

But again, unlike LI, there are a variety of ways to avoid this, and although it may be a two lane, somewhat slower route, it is certainly better than sitting through that mess week after week.

One of my favorites is Route 17K, which can hook you up with the Thruway, or stay on 84 over the Beacon Bridge and don the Taconic. Or if you are more western SC, you can go 97 to Port Jervis, and jump right into Jersey, of course depending on your final destination, that brings a Manhattan river crossing into the picture, which in my opinion should always be avoided unless it is 4AM.

At any rate, if you haven't already experienced it, just a word of warning. That spot is a mess, and with Bethel Woods concerts starting up, if you catch it wrong, you could be there for a while.

Feedback

I had a busy weekend. Both days were chalk full of showings. I ended up looking at about thirty homes in the SC area. Although long and tiring, I am not complaining. Busy is good, and also seeing a house is invaluable for the next time some one calls, or inquires. I know the good and bad, and can relate that to the next prospect. There is no comparison. If the agent hasn't seen the house, they know just about as much as you, which is normally just carefully worded copy, and artful pictures, none of which tell the story.

It goes back to my point to make sure to work with an agent who is out there in the trenches, knows the inventory, and can help avoid wasting time. Often if it is the first time out with people, I will explain the issues of a certain property, but follow it up with, but I would be happy to show it to you. After a few of those, they start to trust me.

But to get to the point of my post. I showed two of my own listings, and the rest were co-brokes, listed with different agents. So there is quite a bit of work that goes into coordinating looking at thirty different homes to four different customers in two days--calling, waiting for callbacks, lock box numbers, owners being home etc. Driving around and being a home voyeur is the fun part.

And then Monday comes, and the phone starts ringing. This week it started at 8 AM. Its agents wondering how the showings went, and asking for feedback. I received more than a dozen throughout the day.

When someone shows one of my listings, I rarely call for feedback. I think it is a waste of time. If the buyer liked the house they will call. If there is no call within 48 hours, I chalk it up to a no. Most of the time, the original call will be a question...is the kitchen table staying? How much are the utilities...something that lets you know there is interest.

Calling back over a dozen different agents to tell them my people did not like their listings is time consuming and a pain in the ass. And to get feedback I think doesn't help. Everyone's tastes are different, so if it is small things like...we want a more open floor plan, or there is not enough room for my antique armour, then it makes no difference, because those are things that cannot be changed. And if it is big things, like...we don't like mouse droppings in the sink, or a rusty car in the backyard...the agent should already know about that.

Even price is not worth feedback. If I get a buyer that says they love the place, but the price is too high, I say make an offer, and then the agent will be hearing from me.

An Example of why I love Sullivan County

This driving range is on a back dirt road. By the honor system you put the money in a box nailed to the tree, (three bucks for a bucket. I think it is a quarter a ball at Chelsea Piers), and hit the balls out into a hay field. The eldery farmer who is retired, does it as a hobby. Every time I am there, I am the only one. Try finding a spot like this in the Hamptons.