Rock Snot

I went out this past weekend with a few of my friends, who are all a bit more outdoorsy than I, and a few of the fisherman in the group were complaining about the Delaware and the surrounding tributaries. It hasn't really been covered by the "major" news outlets up here, but after talking with them, and doing some research I found out a bit more.



Didymosphenia geminate, or "rock snot" as is had been nicknamed, is an invasive freshwater diatom (microscopic alga). Didymo can form extensive “blooms” on the bottoms of rocky river beds, essentially smothering aquatic life forms such as macroinvertebrates (aquatic insects), native algae, and other organisms. Didymo uses stalks to attach to rocks and plants in a river system. The diatom actually creates these stalks, which can form masses 3 inches to 5 inches thick on the river bottom, and trail for lengths of 2 feet to 3 feet in the current. It is actually the stalks that are more problematic than the alga. The alga will eventually die off and decompose, while these stalks tend to persist for several months on the river bottom.



It is not native to NY. It started showing up around 2006-07, and has been getting steadily worse. I guess no one is sure exactly where it is originally native too, although it has been in New Zealand for decades. It can easily stick to waders, boat and canoes, even fishing lures. Only a few of these alga need to be transferred to start a new colony.



The problem is the invasivness, it kills all the small insects that the fish feed on, so it is a real threat to the river and stream's fish population. Apparently there has already been documented declines. And a large part of our tourism depends on the weekend, and vacation angler. I went and checked it out myself in Hankins. For a lack of a better term, its gross.



From what I can gather, there isn't really a whole lot than can be done, it blooms in the spring, pretty much covers everything, and then dies off in the July/Aug. months, only leaving behind the stalks. I guess dryer springs, which make the water levels lower make the blooms more prevalent.

At any rate, is is something to keep a close eye on. the Delaware's crystal clear water, and polished rocky bottom is what makes that river so attractive. Rock snot is anything but attractive.

Traffic

Over the past month, I have been in contact with a dozen or so buyers of mine who have bought from me over the years. Most are in full summer swing, and are piling in the car as early as possible on Fridays, and not heading back until it is starting to get dark on Sunday. (There are a handful who have less traditional schedules, but the majority are Mon thru Fri.)

One of the many differences between the Hampton's and SC, besides its size, is there are a variety of ways to get here. But sort of like the LIE, we have Route 17, which is really the main artery to most of our region.

Well I'm sure some of you have noticed, but starting at about exit 118 (if you are heading east), until below Middletown, major construction has dropped 17 down to one narrow lane in both directions, and from the look of the progress (or lack thereof) this is something that will continue throughout our summer season.

I had one couple tell me on Memorial Day Monday, it took them six hours to get from Bethel to Queens. Ugh.

But again, unlike LI, there are a variety of ways to avoid this, and although it may be a two lane, somewhat slower route, it is certainly better than sitting through that mess week after week.

One of my favorites is Route 17K, which can hook you up with the Thruway, or stay on 84 over the Beacon Bridge and don the Taconic. Or if you are more western SC, you can go 97 to Port Jervis, and jump right into Jersey, of course depending on your final destination, that brings a Manhattan river crossing into the picture, which in my opinion should always be avoided unless it is 4AM.

At any rate, if you haven't already experienced it, just a word of warning. That spot is a mess, and with Bethel Woods concerts starting up, if you catch it wrong, you could be there for a while.

Feedback

I had a busy weekend. Both days were chalk full of showings. I ended up looking at about thirty homes in the SC area. Although long and tiring, I am not complaining. Busy is good, and also seeing a house is invaluable for the next time some one calls, or inquires. I know the good and bad, and can relate that to the next prospect. There is no comparison. If the agent hasn't seen the house, they know just about as much as you, which is normally just carefully worded copy, and artful pictures, none of which tell the story.

It goes back to my point to make sure to work with an agent who is out there in the trenches, knows the inventory, and can help avoid wasting time. Often if it is the first time out with people, I will explain the issues of a certain property, but follow it up with, but I would be happy to show it to you. After a few of those, they start to trust me.

But to get to the point of my post. I showed two of my own listings, and the rest were co-brokes, listed with different agents. So there is quite a bit of work that goes into coordinating looking at thirty different homes to four different customers in two days--calling, waiting for callbacks, lock box numbers, owners being home etc. Driving around and being a home voyeur is the fun part.

And then Monday comes, and the phone starts ringing. This week it started at 8 AM. Its agents wondering how the showings went, and asking for feedback. I received more than a dozen throughout the day.

When someone shows one of my listings, I rarely call for feedback. I think it is a waste of time. If the buyer liked the house they will call. If there is no call within 48 hours, I chalk it up to a no. Most of the time, the original call will be a question...is the kitchen table staying? How much are the utilities...something that lets you know there is interest.

Calling back over a dozen different agents to tell them my people did not like their listings is time consuming and a pain in the ass. And to get feedback I think doesn't help. Everyone's tastes are different, so if it is small things like...we want a more open floor plan, or there is not enough room for my antique armour, then it makes no difference, because those are things that cannot be changed. And if it is big things, like...we don't like mouse droppings in the sink, or a rusty car in the backyard...the agent should already know about that.

Even price is not worth feedback. If I get a buyer that says they love the place, but the price is too high, I say make an offer, and then the agent will be hearing from me.

An Example of why I love Sullivan County

This driving range is on a back dirt road. By the honor system you put the money in a box nailed to the tree, (three bucks for a bucket. I think it is a quarter a ball at Chelsea Piers), and hit the balls out into a hay field. The eldery farmer who is retired, does it as a hobby. Every time I am there, I am the only one. Try finding a spot like this in the Hamptons.

Short Sales and Bank Stupidity

I had a comment from a good friend the other day, that my blog posts have a tendency to be a bit negative. I took his constructive criticism, mulled it over, and decided that newspaper editors discovered long before my time that bad news sells, and who am I to mess with a winning formula?

But to temper this post a bit, I will start out with good news. I had two closings this month, weekends have been full of appointments, and the phone is ringing. Value and more value is still the mantra. Anything over 250K is approached with the same caution as a hornets nest, and on more than one occasion I have heard. "I just love the house, but I can't justify paying that much for it."

Anyway, on to the real reason for this post. The bubble bursting has brought short sales and foreclosures to the forefront of our industry. Although not so much as other parts of the country, they are still prevalent here, and any agent worth their salt has encountered one of these lovely little nuggets of frustration. Most attempt to muddle through with little or no idea what they are doing.

Dealing with either, (although I find short sales particularly challenging) it immediately becomes apparent why our banking system collapsed. There is absolutely no common sense or vested interest in anyone I come into contact with. Every colloquialism is true, they can't see the forest for the trees, penny rich and dollar poor, a bird in the hand...etc.

Every time you deal with a bank, it comes down to the magic "market value." That is what every one of them are stuck on. And you can see how they would be. They are numbers driven, and putting a number on their investments or in a foreclosure situation, their assets is paramount.

However, what they always seem to miss, is that market value is only what someone is willing to pay you in a free arms length transaction. Careful appraisals, or haphazard BPO's, makes no difference.

Case in point. I had a buyer make an offer. The home was listed as a short sale, for 109K. Offer was 90K. Offer was submitted Jan. 2. We wait, and wait. Negotiator appointed, negotiator transferred..yada yada. Finally last week I get a call from the listing agent. The BPO. (brokers price opinion) came back at 155K.

Now a brokers price opinion is a joke anyway. In the banks attempt to save a few dollars, they randomly ask brokers or agents from the area to do a BPO or a CMA (comparative market analysis.) All the agent does is drive by the house, take a few exterior pictures, go back to the mls, find three sold comps, and three active comps, with sort of the same lost size and square footage, and come up with a number they think is fair market value. They then send that to the bank. The bank pays them around 50 bucks, and that is how value is determined.

Using this formula, I could easily do two BPO's on the same house with a 40% difference. It is that inaccurate and subjective.

You might ask yourself why don't they hire an appraiser? A pre requisite to become an appraiser is much more stringent than a real estate agent. And an appraisal is a much exhaustive process, (although still subjective.) Well an appraiser charges quite a bit more. A bank does hire an appraiser when someone apples for a mortgage, but that cost is passed on to the borrower in application fees. Why pay an appraiser 400, when you can pay an agent 50?

Any agent who attempts to list a short sale should submit their own BPO. Often the bank will use it, or at least give it some credence in comparison to another that they order. In my case the agent did not, so we end up with a BPO of 155K. The sellers only owe. 130K on it. The house has sat on the market for over a year. The owners have not paid the mortgage for eight months.

Were the bank to take this deal, they would immediately stop the fiscal bleeding. But no, they will take this absurd opinion of value. Continue to lose money, let the house fall into foreclosure, have it sit as a blight on one of our streets, until it is finally bought for pennies on the dollar 18 to 24 months from now.

When did common sense become so rare?

Random Update

I am not sure what to call this blog spot, because I think it is kind of gong to be all over the place. (What a treat for the reader.) First off last weekend was chalk full of showings. I spent around twelve hours in my car driving all around this county on a nice spring, actually more like summer day.

Both days were spent around the Roscoe/Tennanah Lake/Livingston Manor area. Neither resulted in a quick offer, but they are interested in a few things, and I have a feeling will be buying something.

We did see a few really nice properties, that are (I believe) around 30% less than what they would be asking for a few years ago. Affordable nice houses on private acreage, in the $230,000 range. Second home ownership is affordable again, and that is what is going to sustain us.

I know the doom and gloomers will say I am crazy, and this downward spiral will continue for the next five years, until finally when we crawl from the pit of real estate slime, and dust ourselves off, only foreclosures under 100K will be dotting the landscape, but I think as soon as the numbers start to make sense, and the dream of a second home is comfortably doable, people will buy.

I do think there will be another dip. Interest rates will climb, the dollar is too weak to sustain right now, and that will be the equivalent of raising every home price by 5 to 10K, but that will be over come.

On a personal front, I have switched Re/Max brokerages. I am now with Re/Max Benchmark out of New Windsor NY. Just this past week I have been introduced to the way a large professional brokerage works, and it is like night and day. I know I have said it before, but because of our county's ruralness, people and real estate people in particular, can get away with a certain lack of professionalism, that would be swallowed up and destroyed in a more competitive market.

I am not saying all. There are some very good competent real estate people in the county that I have worked with, and those are the ones that will sustain, but this business pulls in some who see the lure of an easy buck, and are really not good at what they do, and make no bones about it. Those are the ones that give real estate agents a bad name, and that is why I don't mind the correction. Let the chips fall where they may, and let the strong survive. On the other side will be strong competent agents and brokers who can weather the storm, and are truly professional at what they do.

The Love Hate Between the Local and the Visitor

I suppose this strange dichotomy has existed for years here in Sullivan County, but I think like everything that makes SC different as a “tourist” spot , this relationship is a little strange, and sort of passive-aggressive. In comparison to locals in the Hamptons, or the Jersey Shore, or further up, where the hostility is a little more apparent, and such nicknames as Cidiots and Massholes, Full-timers here in SC, I think are a little more protected from the influx, so the annoyance is kept to a minimum.

Though, as the internet has made the world smaller, I think in some ways it has brought this clash a little more to the forefront. Most (much livelier blogs) have this undertone, and as issues like gas-drilling and property taxes are discussed, it becomes more apparent. Full-timers feel it is a necessary evil, and put up with a crowded Delaware, less parking, longer lines at the movie theatre in town, or the grocery store, because our sluggish economy is driven by the weekender. Right now estimates are between 30-40% of our money for public schools come from the pockets of people who do not claim SC as their primary residence. That is a huge portion, and really shows how dependent we are on the weekender.

On a whole other level, the Hasidic community is more openly frowned upon and muttered about. The rumors that they do not pay taxes, seem to pave the way for this dislike. (Which according to those in the know, simply isn’t true. The property that is off the tax roll is minimal.) At any rate, what is true is that their bungalow colonies do tend to be run down and in disrepair. Our townships need to do a better job of keeping those communities up to code. I also think that they simply stand out which makes them a target, and the influx, from Memorial Day to Labor Day is so apparent, it helps fuel the dislike.

Not sure where I am going with this, just an observation I had. I suppose neighborly resentments have been a staple of any community forever, and ours is no different.

But in some ways it is different, and mirrors the County. Even this sort of dispute you can enter into only when you want. Or, you can choose to just keep to yourself, and enjoy springtime in the Catskills.

Bad Blogger Once Again

It has been pretty busy the last few months. Being a new father of course adds to that, and takes some time away from such things as blogging, but I was updating my website, and wanted to update in here as well.

Spring is in the air, and it has brought buyers with it. My last post with the four lake access properties? Three currently are in contract, and the fourth has had a parade through it this weekend. (Listing agents words, it is not my listing.) This does prove that the right properties at the right price will go quick.

I think that is why in this market, it is more important than ever for a buyer to get hooked up with a broker who knows the market, and what is going on. There are so many over-priced-look-good-in-the-picture listings, that I think there are some buyers out there who, after going out hunting a few times, have given up. In my experience the magic number is three. If I can't find a motivated buyer what he or she wants in three trips, the invariably seem to shift gears. Not so much stop looking, but slow it down, start thinking about other areas, etc.

Everyone is different, so there is no way for me to guarantee that I can find a buyers something they will like, but it really doesn't take a rocket scientist to see a property, and know it is a good deal, and could potentially be attractive to quite a number of buyers. That is why when a good listing that is not mine goes into contract, I always get a little twinge. Missed opportunity. 726 North Branch Road comes to mind. Love that old boarding house. Heard just this weekend there is a deal on it.

But in someways, I think this malaise, and this general feeling that Sullivan real estate is crappy and overpriced, is the Realtor's fault. Although now, the under trained, and under motivated are dropping like flies, there is still the part-timer, seat of their pants agent out there, showing on weekends, without a good feel for the market.

I'm not putting anyone one down, I am addressing the possible buyers out there, agents get a healthy chunk of cash for selling a home. Just make sure they are qualified, and they are willing to work hard for the money. What would you pay for 3 to 4 thousand dollars? In no other business is there the possibility of getting paid so much for doing so little. That is what drove the NAR numbers to new records during our version of the gold rush. Well now the big nuggets are gone, but the fervent ones are still sifting through the sand for the smaller pieces. Those are the kind of agents you want.

Affordable Lake Access

With spring right around the corner, and temperatures hitting around 55 today, people begin to think about summer, and summer getaways, and I anticipate the phone to begin ringing with people looking for that house with the magical "water."

So many prospective buyers have that on the list. Either a stream, the Delaware or a lake. Access to a spot to swim. Why? perhaps it conjours up childhood memories, thoughts of relaxation--who knows, I think mostly it just represents, "downtime"--lazy summer days on the water.

There are four I have on my list for this season. Now full disclosure, two are my listings, however I truly believe they are good deals. The other two are also excellent deals. All four are not lakefront, but have lake access, and on all, the lake is less than a mile away, and on one, you can see the lake from the deck.


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Two of these 27762 and 26543 have access to Lake Loch Ada, which is a little known lake down by Glen Spey. It is a quiet non-motorboat lake, About 250 acres. It is a really nice spot tucked in the mountains, and it is lower Sullivan County, so the drive is under two hours.

27762 needs some work, but it is closer to the lake. It can bee seen from the decks. 26543 has been fully renovated, and has a cool lake home feel. Both are priced under 200K, which you can't get a studio for in the Hamptons. Bot of these are really good value.

27941 is on York Lake, which is a little smaller than Loch Ada and it is a motor-boat lake. It is frankly my least favorite lake, but the home is big and impeccable. I don't think the pictures do it justice, everything is high end, and it sits on two acres. at $239,000 it is less than the owner paid for it, and in my opinion another great value. York Lake is again in lower Sullivan County, so the drive is less.

27611 is brand new construction, again great quality. It has access to Tennanah Lake which is a much bigger motorboat lake. This house is the furthest away from any of the lakes, but it has complete privacy on over five acres--were you to be on the lake, the homes are all tucked in together, as is the case with most Catskill lakes. Tennanah Lake is a great lake community, very lively in the summer. There is a 18 hole golf course, just off the lake, and Roscoe is just a few minutes away. Older, smaller homes on the lake do not go for less than half a million, so this is another one that in my opinion is a great value.

I know that there is something about being on the water, being able to wake up and see it, be next to it as you barbecue or have a glass of wine and read a book, and hear the water lapping, but at half the cost, these homes offer 90% of what you would get with a lakefront.

Bad Blogger

Haven't been blogging in a while, but I have been really super busy. Real estate is not moving so much, (although I have had showings every weekend.) But my concierge business over the past few months has sky-rocketed. Who knew that there were so many people concerned with their second homes.

Many of my customers do have high-tech gadgets where they can see from their web cams on their computers at home, what is going on in the house, low temperature alarms automatic lights etc. but the pure hassle and worry of what may be going on while they are away, is what I think drives this business. A home is a huge investment, and many times, (intentionally) the house is tucked away from anyone else. Being able to call someone like me, to make sure all is well, is a piece of mind, that is worth a couple of bucks to some folks.

I really enjoy it. Driving around the winter countryside, and inspecting different types of homes is a really a nice way to make a few extra bucks. And very often I come across real estate signs and listings I might have otherwise missed. A wise old real estate man once told me that an agent doesn't make money at home or in the office. He makes it in his car.

But today I am snow bound, with a wife who is four weeks away from our first. I was unceremoniously removed from the bedroom I was using as an office, (which is now blue with an oak crib also waiting for the little one's arrival.) and am now in the basement. Its pretty nice down here. I've got a little window watching the snow pile up. Life is good.

On the real estate front, I've got a few deals pending, but both are short sales, where if you let it, it will drive you crazy. Dealing with a bank loss mitigaion department is the equivalant of banging your head against the wall.

Prices continue to fall, and I think sellers some sellers have taken that deep sigh, and realized what kind of market we are in, and that it is here to stay.