Well, as 2009 winds down, I suppose it is only natural to look back on the year and reflect on things good and bad, personally and professionally.
On the personal side, we are expecting in March. It is our first, and cautious optimism would be the best way to describe how I feel about that. She is excited, and since she is such a saint. (she puts up with me) I have no fear that she will be a great mother, and together we can be pretty good parents.
But this is a real estate blog, and although my personal life is important to me, I'm sure it is pretty mundane to someone who is trying to gather information on buying a home in Sullivan County.
Professionally I had my best year in my short (four year) real estate career. Now most of that I can attribute to switching brokerages, where my opportunities increased expediently, and also putting it in perspective, "best year" does not by any means put me up there with the Rockefeller's, but in a year of global groaning and gnashing of teeth, I would say professionally it is an accomplishment.
I had some really great clients this year, and met some wonderful, and wonderfully different people. I would like to thank all those who bought, and who's homes I sold in '09. You are the only reason I am in business.
My mission statement for 2010 is simple. "Be there for my clients." I would like to think that I succeeded in that in '09, and I would like to wish everyone a healthy and happy 2010.
Now if I could just get my concierge service business off the ground. It is a great idea, but I have had little response.
“I am not judged by the number of times I fail, but by the number of times I succeed: and the number of times I succeed is in direct proportion to the number of times I fail and keep trying.”
--Hopkins
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Friday, December 11, 2009
Holidays Approaching--Slow Weekend
First weekend in probably about two months where I don't have a full schedule. I do have to accompany a co-broke on one of my listings on Sat. but that is it. I'm sure it is the holidays. People are busy with Christmas stuff. I certainly don't mind. I'll take a weekend at home.
The problem with my "busyness" is that it is not translating into offers and sales. I have a half dozen people I am actively working with, and although I feel we are close on a few, all seem hesitant. There is a prevailing idea that any asking price can be automatically discounted by 20 to 30 percent, many refuse to make compromises, and then even when it all seems like it has come together, there is that nagging fear that if the market declines further, they will have overpaid.
They are not tire kickers. I have been in this business long enough to sniff out the ones who are just looking for a nice day to view houses in the country, but there is just no such thing as an easy sale.
An example I have is the property link I listed below. I showed this property three or four times. It is a nice big farmhouse on seven acres with a few huge outbuildings. Bank owned. It was bought at the height of the insanity for $450,000. Bank started it at $239,000 dropped it to $220,000, (at which time I got an offer for $180,000) I urged my people to come up just $10,000 more. No dice. They "moved on."
The price was just dropped last week again to $199,000. I called back my customers and told them. They said, put in an offer of $182,500. When I presented it...to late. In the course of two days, there had been an accepted offer, and contracts were out
Believe me this is a steal at $199,000, (and it probably went for around $190,000.) But this is my point. For $7,500 (less then the total commission.) Buyers are willing to walk. I can lead a horse to water, and yet this pervasive attitude that unless the property is a steal, it is not worth it. And it is not until the media starts telling everyone that the market is rebounding before this attitude changes.
I know I have told this story before, but I had an economics professor in college who would say. "When do the cliff divers of Acapulco jump? When they see water? or when they see rocks?
7858 State Route 52 (a/k/a CR 111) Narrowsburg, NY 12764
The problem with my "busyness" is that it is not translating into offers and sales. I have a half dozen people I am actively working with, and although I feel we are close on a few, all seem hesitant. There is a prevailing idea that any asking price can be automatically discounted by 20 to 30 percent, many refuse to make compromises, and then even when it all seems like it has come together, there is that nagging fear that if the market declines further, they will have overpaid.
They are not tire kickers. I have been in this business long enough to sniff out the ones who are just looking for a nice day to view houses in the country, but there is just no such thing as an easy sale.
An example I have is the property link I listed below. I showed this property three or four times. It is a nice big farmhouse on seven acres with a few huge outbuildings. Bank owned. It was bought at the height of the insanity for $450,000. Bank started it at $239,000 dropped it to $220,000, (at which time I got an offer for $180,000) I urged my people to come up just $10,000 more. No dice. They "moved on."
The price was just dropped last week again to $199,000. I called back my customers and told them. They said, put in an offer of $182,500. When I presented it...to late. In the course of two days, there had been an accepted offer, and contracts were out
Believe me this is a steal at $199,000, (and it probably went for around $190,000.) But this is my point. For $7,500 (less then the total commission.) Buyers are willing to walk. I can lead a horse to water, and yet this pervasive attitude that unless the property is a steal, it is not worth it. And it is not until the media starts telling everyone that the market is rebounding before this attitude changes.
I know I have told this story before, but I had an economics professor in college who would say. "When do the cliff divers of Acapulco jump? When they see water? or when they see rocks?
7858 State Route 52 (a/k/a CR 111) Narrowsburg, NY 12764
Monday, November 30, 2009
My Foray into the Short Sale Mess
So inevitably I suppose, the short sale spectre which has been looming this past year, finally entered into my day to day business. I currently have two deals (or attempted deals) in the short sale category. I am the selling agent on one, and the buyers agent on another.
While being on the buyers side is a lot less work, I find it more frustrating, because besides squeaky wheel phone calls to the listing agent, I have no control, as the frustratingly slow wheels of the bank system continuously leave the buyer up in the air as to whether this will actually happen.
Dealing with loss mitigation bank personnel is incredibly frustrating, because it seems there is no vested interest on that end to make the deal happen. All necessary hoops--hardship letter, financial corroboration, comparative market analysis, the necessary short sale "packet" as been submitted, and yet we sit and wait. I do believe that this will happen, but when is the question, and in the meantime, as an agent, all I can do is try to keep impatient buyers from moving on.
I read a stat that 80% of all short sale attempts fail, and the average short sale takes eight months to complete. I blame the lending institutions for that. The obvious apathy that I encounter on every phone call is absurd.
On a brighter side, my holiday weekend was full of showings. Buyers are looking again, and despite what the doom and gloomers are saying, things seem to be picking up.
While being on the buyers side is a lot less work, I find it more frustrating, because besides squeaky wheel phone calls to the listing agent, I have no control, as the frustratingly slow wheels of the bank system continuously leave the buyer up in the air as to whether this will actually happen.
Dealing with loss mitigation bank personnel is incredibly frustrating, because it seems there is no vested interest on that end to make the deal happen. All necessary hoops--hardship letter, financial corroboration, comparative market analysis, the necessary short sale "packet" as been submitted, and yet we sit and wait. I do believe that this will happen, but when is the question, and in the meantime, as an agent, all I can do is try to keep impatient buyers from moving on.
I read a stat that 80% of all short sale attempts fail, and the average short sale takes eight months to complete. I blame the lending institutions for that. The obvious apathy that I encounter on every phone call is absurd.
On a brighter side, my holiday weekend was full of showings. Buyers are looking again, and despite what the doom and gloomers are saying, things seem to be picking up.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Slow Business Unless Your a Bank Robber
I racked my brain this morning to come up with a real estate topic for this blog post, but the reality is, things for me have been quiet. I field daily inquiries, and have shown on the weekends, but everybody seems to be casual lookers right now. I don’t know, maybe it is the time of year, or maybe it is just happens to be the people who are contacting me. There hasn’t been a whole lot of activity on the pending or sold sections of the mls, so I think things in general are quiet.
The $8,000 tax credit did get extended which I think is good news, at least for the economy in general, I think it has minimal effect on second home purchases here in SC.
On the exciting news front we did have two bank robberies here in Callicoon within five days of each other, which is unusual to say the least. The first, on the Bank of America, the robbers were quickly apprehended, but so far the second bunch on the Bank of Jeffersonville remain at large. I’m sure the second was a “we coulda done better conversation” that built into the actual crime.
All the papers wrote that the first bank heist was in excess of 75K which I think is irresponsible to print. It surprised me that one would get that much from a teller hold-up in the sticks, and I think it got the second crew thinking. They should have told everyone they only made off with like $5,000. Probably would have prevented this second robbery.
Anyway just my two cents. Starting to get a response from my concierge business. www.catskillconcierge.com I have two interviews this weekend.
The $8,000 tax credit did get extended which I think is good news, at least for the economy in general, I think it has minimal effect on second home purchases here in SC.
On the exciting news front we did have two bank robberies here in Callicoon within five days of each other, which is unusual to say the least. The first, on the Bank of America, the robbers were quickly apprehended, but so far the second bunch on the Bank of Jeffersonville remain at large. I’m sure the second was a “we coulda done better conversation” that built into the actual crime.
All the papers wrote that the first bank heist was in excess of 75K which I think is irresponsible to print. It surprised me that one would get that much from a teller hold-up in the sticks, and I think it got the second crew thinking. They should have told everyone they only made off with like $5,000. Probably would have prevented this second robbery.
Anyway just my two cents. Starting to get a response from my concierge business. www.catskillconcierge.com I have two interviews this weekend.
Friday, October 16, 2009
120 Acre Sale in Glen Spey
A listing just went to sold status in the mls. It is 120 acres on Van Tuyl Road in Barryville, sold for $200,000. Nothing special about the land, but nothing really negative about it either, no power lines or steep grade. It is an estate sale, so perhaps there was some motivation with multiple siblings (just surmising) however, this cannot be classified as a distressed sale. It sat on the market for almost 700 days, price drops from $499,000.
This puts us in a land price area we have not seen for some time in this county--under $2,000 an acre. And it reinforces what I have been saying all summer. Buyers are only pulling the trigger when they feel they are getting a great deal.
At any rate this is going to add an interesting twist to large parcel land comps. I added the link to the listing below.
http://scmls.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=1341b2cf-0fd3-4f7d-af99-3a98280b73dd&Report=Yes
This puts us in a land price area we have not seen for some time in this county--under $2,000 an acre. And it reinforces what I have been saying all summer. Buyers are only pulling the trigger when they feel they are getting a great deal.
At any rate this is going to add an interesting twist to large parcel land comps. I added the link to the listing below.
http://scmls.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=1341b2cf-0fd3-4f7d-af99-3a98280b73dd&Report=Yes
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Speculation on the Tax Credit Extension
From the Re/Max Mainstreet Website
"Quick passage by the House last week of a bill extending the $8,000 home buyer tax credit next year for military, diplomatic and intelligence personnel serving overseas increases the odds that Congress will agree to an extension, maybe even an expansion, of the entire credit program well into 2010.
The White House is also signaling that it sees the overall tax credit program – currently set to expire November 30 – as an important element in cutting the unemployment rolls and stimulating new jobs next year.
After an economic policy strategy meeting last week in the Oval Office involving President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, congressional aides said Democrats generally support an extension of the housing credit.
Reid already has made clear he wants an extension. He is co-sponsoring a Senate bill that would do so for six months.
Congressman Charles Rangel, chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, sponsored the one-year extension of the credit for military and other personnel serving overseas, and is reported by aides as favoring an extension for the entire program.
The White House has not publicly committed to an extension, but has confirmed that the President is seriously examining that option.
An unexpected development that emerged following last week's White House meeting was the possibility of opening up the credit to a broader group of buyers next year - people who sell their current homes and buy a replacement home.
Though details were scanty, Capitol Hill sources said one option on the table would be to provide a tax credit – most likely at the $8,000 level – to replacement home buyers whose incomes do not exceed some limit.
The current credit phases out for single taxpayers with incomes above $75,000, and married purchasers earning $150,000. "
I give it a 50/50 shot that it will be extended. Funny thing is now that we are coming up on the dealine, I have had a few inquires about whether buyers can get in under the wire.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Busy, Busy...and the New Yuppie.
It has been a while since my last blog post. I have been trying to do once a week, but this past week has been so busy, that I haven't had a chance. Again busy doesn't always mean money in this business, and so far none of this flurry of activity has generated anything concrete, but as we all know, buying a home is not like buying a loaf of bread. Especially with a second home, the idea needs to percolate and age a bit, before it comes to be. All of the new inquiries these past two weeks are new to the process. And that brings me to the topic of this post.
In my own little real estate world, it seems the fear of the "next great depression" has passed. Prospective buyers have emerged from the fallout shelters. Most of the ones who have contacted me are young urban professionals, 25-35, double income couples, (whether gay or straight), in which both parties are pretty even economically. A few have kids, but most don't.
However the "yuppie" stigma couldn't be more off. It seems anything over 2,500 square feet is too big. I have heard, "a little place to get away to." or "cabin in the woods." Heating it and taxes are a major concern. Mcmansions and anything showy is frowned upon. A new frugality seems to have emerged. Not just because of the recession, but it almost seems inherent in this generation.
The other thing is that the buyers have done their research and are well informed. Very often they already know the last sale price, lot dimensions, taxes and sometimes even mortgage information without me telling them. I love it. Working with a savvy motivated buyer makes my job much easier.
However value is the key. Gone are the days where a buyer stretches more than they had originally wanted to. Anything less then ten percent off the asking price is dismissed at hand. It really seem as though the "less is more" era has emerged.
In my own little real estate world, it seems the fear of the "next great depression" has passed. Prospective buyers have emerged from the fallout shelters. Most of the ones who have contacted me are young urban professionals, 25-35, double income couples, (whether gay or straight), in which both parties are pretty even economically. A few have kids, but most don't.
However the "yuppie" stigma couldn't be more off. It seems anything over 2,500 square feet is too big. I have heard, "a little place to get away to." or "cabin in the woods." Heating it and taxes are a major concern. Mcmansions and anything showy is frowned upon. A new frugality seems to have emerged. Not just because of the recession, but it almost seems inherent in this generation.
The other thing is that the buyers have done their research and are well informed. Very often they already know the last sale price, lot dimensions, taxes and sometimes even mortgage information without me telling them. I love it. Working with a savvy motivated buyer makes my job much easier.
However value is the key. Gone are the days where a buyer stretches more than they had originally wanted to. Anything less then ten percent off the asking price is dismissed at hand. It really seem as though the "less is more" era has emerged.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
$8,000 Tax Credit. Will it Expire? Does SC Real Estate Care?
From The NYT's Online Sept. 15th.
"When Congress passed an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers last winter, it was intended as a dose of shock therapy during a crisis. Now the question is becoming whether the housing market can function without it.
As many as 40 percent of all home buyers this year will qualify for the credit. It is on track to cost the government $15 billion, more than twice the amount that was projected when Congress passed the stimulus bill in February.
In the view of the real estate industry and some economists, all that money is well spent. They contend the credit is doing what it was meant to do, encouraging a recovery in the housing market that is gathering steam. Analysts say the credit is directly responsible for several hundred thousand home sales.
Skeptics argue that most of the money is going to people who would have bought a home anyway. And they contend that unless it is allowed to expire on schedule in late November, the tax credit is likely to become one more expensive government program that refuses to die.
The real estate industry, including the powerful 1.1 million-member National Association of REALTORS®, wants Congress to extend the credit at least through next summer. The group hopes to expand the program to $15,000 and to allow all buyers, not just those who have been out of the market for at least three years, to qualify. The price tag on that plan: $50 billion to $100 billion."
Two out of my ten residential sales this year were eligible for the tax credit. So for me, I am at about half of what the national average is, but we are a second home market. Will the expiration do anything to our market? It's hard to tell. If it expires, and there is a dip in national numbers, it will affect people who are getting ready to test the waters again. However I have not seen a last second rush of people trying to buy something before the end of November.
I guess we will see. I think overall it was good for the housing market. Both of my "first time" buyers would have bought anyway, but the credit enabled them to look in a higher range.
NAR is feverishly trying to get the plan extended, so in their eyes it has helped the agents and brokers nationwide. Well lets see...if they are estimating five million home sales this year. Forty percent is two million. Times that by $8,000, you get 16 billion--the amount the tax credit cost the tax payer. Now take 5% of that) the national average of a real estate commission). That comes to 80 million (very roughly) in real estate commissions. I guess we can see why NAR wants this so badly. That is a healthy chunk of change.
Again locally, I don't think it is going to make much of a difference, but we'll see.
"When Congress passed an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers last winter, it was intended as a dose of shock therapy during a crisis. Now the question is becoming whether the housing market can function without it.
As many as 40 percent of all home buyers this year will qualify for the credit. It is on track to cost the government $15 billion, more than twice the amount that was projected when Congress passed the stimulus bill in February.
In the view of the real estate industry and some economists, all that money is well spent. They contend the credit is doing what it was meant to do, encouraging a recovery in the housing market that is gathering steam. Analysts say the credit is directly responsible for several hundred thousand home sales.
Skeptics argue that most of the money is going to people who would have bought a home anyway. And they contend that unless it is allowed to expire on schedule in late November, the tax credit is likely to become one more expensive government program that refuses to die.
The real estate industry, including the powerful 1.1 million-member National Association of REALTORS®, wants Congress to extend the credit at least through next summer. The group hopes to expand the program to $15,000 and to allow all buyers, not just those who have been out of the market for at least three years, to qualify. The price tag on that plan: $50 billion to $100 billion."
Two out of my ten residential sales this year were eligible for the tax credit. So for me, I am at about half of what the national average is, but we are a second home market. Will the expiration do anything to our market? It's hard to tell. If it expires, and there is a dip in national numbers, it will affect people who are getting ready to test the waters again. However I have not seen a last second rush of people trying to buy something before the end of November.
I guess we will see. I think overall it was good for the housing market. Both of my "first time" buyers would have bought anyway, but the credit enabled them to look in a higher range.
NAR is feverishly trying to get the plan extended, so in their eyes it has helped the agents and brokers nationwide. Well lets see...if they are estimating five million home sales this year. Forty percent is two million. Times that by $8,000, you get 16 billion--the amount the tax credit cost the tax payer. Now take 5% of that) the national average of a real estate commission). That comes to 80 million (very roughly) in real estate commissions. I guess we can see why NAR wants this so badly. That is a healthy chunk of change.
Again locally, I don't think it is going to make much of a difference, but we'll see.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Summer is Gone
It really didn’t hit me until this week how quiet it has gotten up here in Sullivan, post Labor Day. I drove to downtown Callicoon last night and there was only one car parked on main street. I had gotten used to driving through at least once or twice to find a good spot. And then again driving into the office this morning, the roads are all very quiet. The leaves are changing, the fall crispness is in the air. I love this time of year.
But what does this mean for my sellers? A few are not happy. They are worried we have missed the selling season, and with school tax time fast approaching, there are a few that are re-examining their strategies.
In my short real estate career it has historically seemed like the fall is not a bad time for activity here in Sullivan. Now granted if you go by the sold numbers in the fall, those are all deals put together in the middle of summer, and for some the search may have begun around Memorial Day. However, my phone is still ringing, and people are still making appointments.
I think for smart buyers, now would be the time. When is it the best time to by an air conditioner? Certainly not the first eighty-five degree day in June. And we all know the best time to get Christmas decorations is Dec. 26th.
It will be interesting to watch the pending list over the next couple of months. I think the fall will continue the upward trend of activity.
For now though I will enjoy the quiet sidewalks of our little towns, and watch the leaves do their thing. Fall really is the best time of year.
But what does this mean for my sellers? A few are not happy. They are worried we have missed the selling season, and with school tax time fast approaching, there are a few that are re-examining their strategies.
In my short real estate career it has historically seemed like the fall is not a bad time for activity here in Sullivan. Now granted if you go by the sold numbers in the fall, those are all deals put together in the middle of summer, and for some the search may have begun around Memorial Day. However, my phone is still ringing, and people are still making appointments.
I think for smart buyers, now would be the time. When is it the best time to by an air conditioner? Certainly not the first eighty-five degree day in June. And we all know the best time to get Christmas decorations is Dec. 26th.
It will be interesting to watch the pending list over the next couple of months. I think the fall will continue the upward trend of activity.
For now though I will enjoy the quiet sidewalks of our little towns, and watch the leaves do their thing. Fall really is the best time of year.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Gas Drilling Seminar
I attended the natural gas seminar last night put on by the Independent Oil and Gas Association.. It was a pretty packed house, standing room only, and the first part of the night was somewhat informative. However the q and a portion turned into a bit of a donny brook, with some pretty off the wall questions and accusations.
It really didn’t answer too many of the questions people have had in this county since this whole thing came up. We were assured that the D.E.C. will be closely regulating all drilling activity, that there has been no instances of contaminated drinking water anywhere in New York State, since the first well was drilled years ago. It sort of reminded me of Alien Invasion. “We come in Peace.” There were vague promises of road repair, and examples where they had built bridges in the past. They also made references to other areas of New York, where wells were present in the back yards of schools, and in wineries.
They explained the fracturing process, which is 99.5 percent water and sand, the other .5 percent being a lubricant, and some sort of soap. All very benign sounding. There were graphs of comparative water usage. (Apparently golf courses use much more water then gas drilling.) And promises of rigs being silenced at dusk.
However any specifics, and they became vague. I paraphrased a few below.
What happens to the contaminated water? “Well, there are a few possibilities, one of which is setting up a treatment plant, another is re-using the water in a different well.” (Again promises of D.E.C. involvement.)
How many wells will be drilled? “Well right now there are 650 rigs in the entire U.S. so the reports of thousands of wells is untrue. It will probably start off with a few, and if they are successful, more over time.”
How can you be sure that there will be no drinking water contamination? “In 2004 the EPA after looking at 452,000 wells in the U.S. concluded not a single case of water contamination from gas drilling.”
One of the most interesting spins was the promise of local tax revenue, and how the companies were going to pay these taxes directly to local municipalities. However when it was explained more, it is actually an ad valorem tax--a real property tax, which is directly linked to the amount of gas pumped from a well. In essence a property’s assessment will rise due to the fact it is more valuable because of natural gas. However they made it sound as if the gas companies would be paying the tax, when actually it will come from the land owners.
Without question, since it was put on by the Gas Association it was a bit slanted, and some was out right propaganda. However they are coming, its just a matter of when. I guess we can only hope our state and local officials police them enough to keep us safe. I do have a gut feeling that this will actually be good for the county once it is up and running. I attached some links below.
www.iogany.org
www.marcellusfacts.com
www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/minres/oilgas/FractListing.pdf
It really didn’t answer too many of the questions people have had in this county since this whole thing came up. We were assured that the D.E.C. will be closely regulating all drilling activity, that there has been no instances of contaminated drinking water anywhere in New York State, since the first well was drilled years ago. It sort of reminded me of Alien Invasion. “We come in Peace.” There were vague promises of road repair, and examples where they had built bridges in the past. They also made references to other areas of New York, where wells were present in the back yards of schools, and in wineries.
They explained the fracturing process, which is 99.5 percent water and sand, the other .5 percent being a lubricant, and some sort of soap. All very benign sounding. There were graphs of comparative water usage. (Apparently golf courses use much more water then gas drilling.) And promises of rigs being silenced at dusk.
However any specifics, and they became vague. I paraphrased a few below.
What happens to the contaminated water? “Well, there are a few possibilities, one of which is setting up a treatment plant, another is re-using the water in a different well.” (Again promises of D.E.C. involvement.)
How many wells will be drilled? “Well right now there are 650 rigs in the entire U.S. so the reports of thousands of wells is untrue. It will probably start off with a few, and if they are successful, more over time.”
How can you be sure that there will be no drinking water contamination? “In 2004 the EPA after looking at 452,000 wells in the U.S. concluded not a single case of water contamination from gas drilling.”
One of the most interesting spins was the promise of local tax revenue, and how the companies were going to pay these taxes directly to local municipalities. However when it was explained more, it is actually an ad valorem tax--a real property tax, which is directly linked to the amount of gas pumped from a well. In essence a property’s assessment will rise due to the fact it is more valuable because of natural gas. However they made it sound as if the gas companies would be paying the tax, when actually it will come from the land owners.
Without question, since it was put on by the Gas Association it was a bit slanted, and some was out right propaganda. However they are coming, its just a matter of when. I guess we can only hope our state and local officials police them enough to keep us safe. I do have a gut feeling that this will actually be good for the county once it is up and running. I attached some links below.
www.iogany.org
www.marcellusfacts.com
www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/minres/oilgas/FractListing.pdf
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